Cotton Near Two-Month Low

Cotton futures traded around 80 cents per pound, near its lowest level in two months, amid concerns over the weather and its impact on crops. Heavy rainfall across Texas, a key US cotton-growing region, raised concerns over crop quality, particularly where bolls had already opened. However, no further rain is forecast this week, limiting the upside for prices. Providing an offsetting pressure, the US harvest is quickly progressing, with 17% of the crop harvested compared with the historical average of 15%, while Texas and Arizona are running well ahead of their normal pace, according to the latest USDA crop progress report. Adding to the bearish pressure is an intensifying competition in global markets. Brazil exported a record 3.37 million tonnes between August 2025 and July 2026, an increase of 19% from the previous marketing year. US exports reached approximately 2.61 million tonnes over the same period.

Cotton futures plunged below 80 cents per pound, approaching their lowest level in three months, pressured by rising new-crop supplies and subdued export demand. The US harvest is progressing faster than both last year and the five-year average, with 17% of the crop harvested compared with the historical average of 15%, while Texas and Arizona are running well ahead of their normal pace, according to the latest USDA NASS Crop Progress report. Ample supplies from Brazil are adding to the bearish pressure, with the country producing more than 4.1 million tonnes and exporting a record 3.37 million tonnes in 2025/26, up 19% from the previous season, intensifying competition in global markets. Meanwhile, import demand from key Asian consumers remains weak. China, the world’s largest cotton consumer, imported just 80,000 tonnes in August 2026, down 12.1% from 90,000 tonnes in July.

Cotton futures fell to around 81 cents per pound, approaching its lowest level in two months, as traders assess whether demand can keep pace with the expected rise in new-crop availability. As the seasonal harvest progresses, additional supply is weighing on prices, particularly in Arizona, where 39% of the crop had been harvested, and Texas, up to 23%, in the week ending September 20th. Additionally, while high temperatures and lack of precipitation, particularly in Texas, increase stress on crops, its conditions continue to worsen, with only 34% of crops rated good or excelent on the same week. Bearish sentiment was reinforced by weak export demand, as USDA's latest export sales report showed shipments declined to 71.2 thousand running bales for the week ended September 10th. Meanwhile, Brazilian output for 2025/26 is estimated to reach a record 4.5 million tons of lint, according to Agroconsult, while exports of Brazilian cotton surged 37.3% year-on-year in August.