Corn Rebounds form 3-Month Low After WASDE

Corn futures rebounded to $4.50 per bushel from a three-month low of $4.40 on November 9th after the USDA's WASDE report downwardly revised the supply backdrop in the US. US corn stocks at the end of the marketing year are expected to be 1.758 billion bushels, revised lower from last month's projection of 1.849 billion, consistent with a reduction in annual production to 15.89 billion bushels from 16.03 billion. Meanwhile, the US harvest reached 81% completion as of November 8th, five percentage points behind the five-year average, with wet conditions slowing fieldwork in key producing states such as Iowa. The data trimmed the recent decline in corn prices, which had been partially driven by the slump in fuel costs amid fresh optimism over diplomacy in Iran, limiting demand for ethanol.

Corn futures held around $4.4 per bushel, near their lowest level since mid-August, as traders positioned ahead of the USDA's November WASDE report for updated estimates on US production and inventories. Analysts expect the agency to lower its 2026/27 production forecast to 15.94 billion bushels from 16.03 billion in October, potentially providing support to prices. The US harvest reached 81% completion as of November 8, five percentage points behind the five-year average, with wet conditions slowing fieldwork in key producing states such as Iowa. Funds have also completed their liquidation of net-long positions, leaving room for renewed buying if the USDA delivers a deeper production cut. However, export demand remains a concern, with weekly corn inspections at 905,267 metric tons, down from 1.48 million tons a year earlier. A fresh sale of 110,000 tons to Mexico for delivery in 2026/27 offered some support.

Corn futures held below $4.40 per bushel, staying near their lowest level in three months, as expectations of ample US supplies and sluggish export demand continued to weigh on prices. The USDA's October forecast put 2026 production at 16.03 billion bushels, marking the second-largest crop on record, while the November 1 harvest was 74% complete, slightly behind the five-year average of 77%. Drier weather across much of the Midwest is expected to help farmers finish harvesting. Export demand also remained a concern, with US corn marketing-year commitments running 34% below the same period last year, although lower prices have recently encouraged fresh international buying. Meanwhile, stronger domestic demand offered some support, as US ethanol production rose for a fifth straight week to 1.143 million barrels per day in the week ended October 30, its highest since January. Traders now await the USDA's November WASDE report for updated estimates on production, demand and ending stocks.