Corn Trades Near August Lows

Corn futures held around $4.4 per bushel, near their lowest level since mid-August, as traders positioned ahead of the USDA's November WASDE report for updated estimates on US production and inventories. Analysts expect the agency to lower its 2026/27 production forecast to 15.94 billion bushels from 16.03 billion in October, potentially providing support to prices. The US harvest reached 81% completion as of November 8, five percentage points behind the five-year average, with wet conditions slowing fieldwork in key producing states such as Iowa. Funds have also completed their liquidation of net-long positions, leaving room for renewed buying if the USDA delivers a deeper production cut. However, export demand remains a concern, with weekly corn inspections at 905,267 metric tons, down from 1.48 million tons a year earlier. A fresh sale of 110,000 tons to Mexico for delivery in 2026/27 offered some support.

Corn futures held below $4.40 per bushel, staying near their lowest level in three months, as expectations of ample US supplies and sluggish export demand continued to weigh on prices. The USDA's October forecast put 2026 production at 16.03 billion bushels, marking the second-largest crop on record, while the November 1 harvest was 74% complete, slightly behind the five-year average of 77%. Drier weather across much of the Midwest is expected to help farmers finish harvesting. Export demand also remained a concern, with US corn marketing-year commitments running 34% below the same period last year, although lower prices have recently encouraged fresh international buying. Meanwhile, stronger domestic demand offered some support, as US ethanol production rose for a fifth straight week to 1.143 million barrels per day in the week ended October 30, its highest since January. Traders now await the USDA's November WASDE report for updated estimates on production, demand and ending stocks.

Corn futures fell below $4.5 per bushel, hitting their lowest level in three months, as expectations of a large US crop and concerns over export demand weighed on prices. The US harvest was 74% complete as of November 1, up 14 percentage points from the previous week but still three points behind the five-year average. The USDA has forecast the country's second-largest corn crop on record, reinforcing expectations of ample supplies. Export demand offered some support, with the USDA reporting sales of 315,000 metric tons to Mexico and 136,000 MT to South Korea for the 2026/27 marketing year, following a separate 1.7 million MT sale to Mexico a day earlier. However, US corn export shipments totaled 884,766 MT in the week ended October 29, up 38.6% from the previous week but down 48.3% from a year earlier. The sharp annual decline highlighted concerns over the pace of shipments, with strong competition from other major exporters adding to pressure on US sales.