Corn Rises Toward Multi-Week Highs

Corn futures rose to around $4.5 per bushel, as mounting concerns over crop losses in Europe and parts of China outweighed expectations for another strong US harvest. Persistent heatwaves and prolonged dry weather across Western Europe, particularly in France, have severely stressed corn crops, prompting lower yield forecasts and raising fears of tighter global supplies. China is also experiencing hot and dry conditions in several key agricultural regions, adding to uncertainty over global feed grain production. Still, gains were capped by generally favorable crop prospects in the US, where forecasts continue to call for timely rainfall across much of the Midwest after brief periods of heat, supporting expectations for a large harvest. Market participants are also closely monitoring upcoming USDA crop condition reports for any signs that recent warmer weather has begun to affect yield potential.

Corn futures fell below $4.5 per bushel, easing from a recent nine-week high reached on July 24 as favorable weather forecasts across the US Midwest eased concerns over production risks. Forecasts call for ample rainfall and milder temperatures near the end of the week, improving yield prospects after recent heat concerns. The favorable outlook reinforced expectations for another large US harvest, weighing on prices. Still, losses were limited by firm ethanol demand as elevated crude oil prices amid the Middle East conflict continued to support biofuel production. Ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions also underpinned grain markets, with attacks on Black Sea ports and grain infrastructure threatening export flows. Meanwhile, the longer-term outlook remained supported by a tighter global corn balance, with the USDA projecting world corn consumption to exceed production for a second straight season, leaving the market more vulnerable to weather disruptions and export disruptions.

Corn futures held above $4.5 per bushel, staying near their highest level since late May as geopolitical disruptions raised concerns over global supplies, while persistent dry weather in parts of the US Midwest threatened yields. The USDA said that 63% of the country's corn crop was rated good-to-excellent, down from 67% a week earlier and below market expectations. Meanwhile, continued attacks between Russia and Ukraine raised concerns over Black Sea grain exports, with damage to port infrastructure and shipping routes threatening supplies from one of the world's key exporting regions. Additionally, renewed fighting in the Middle East constrained fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed crude oil prices higher. Higher energy prices supported corn by improving the outlook for ethanol demand. The market also remained underpinned by the USDA's latest WASDE report, which cut 2026/27 US ending stocks more than expected while raising export forecasts.