Copper Hits All-time High

Copper futures climbed toward $6.30 per pound on Wednesday, recovering from four-month lows amid tightening physical supply in China, the world’s largest copper consumer. Import premiums in the country have reached record levels in recent weeks, while refined copper shipments have declined this year and domestic smelters have reduced production due to rising ore costs and weaker profit margins. China has also faced difficulties replenishing its inventories as substantial volumes of copper have been redirected to the US ahead of potential import tariffs. Additional support came from renewed investor interest in the artificial intelligence sector following strong earnings from neocloud provider CoreWeave. Copper benefits directly from the global expansion of AI infrastructure due to its essential role in data centers and power networks. However, a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections threatened tighter AI regulations and slower data center development.

Copper fell to $6.20 per pound in November, the lowest in four months, tracking base metals with exposure to data centers and electrification projects as markets reconsidered the magnitude of demand growth for the sector's infrastructure buildout. Prices erased their momentary rebound as hotter-than-expected inflation in the US drove markets to price in multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes in the coming quarters, lifting the dollar and borrowing costs for debt-ridden AI infrastructure companies. The data compounded recent pressure from the Democratic Party assuming a majority in the US Congress, which is associated with policies that may slow investment in infrastructure projects that require large amounts of copper. A Democratic Congress also reduced bids for copper futures in the US as tariffs on the metal threatened by President-elect Trump became less likely to be implemented.

Copper futures climbed above $6.30 per pound, recovering from near four-month lows as signs of tightening supply in China, the world’s largest copper consumer, provided support, with import premiums reaching record highs. Industry data showed that the Yangshan copper premium, a key indicator of Chinese demand for imported copper, surged to $215 per ton, while the domestic premium over SHFE contracts climbed to 2,615 yuan. Meanwhile, copper inventories tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped sharply to 33,848 tons last week, their lowest level since early January 2024. Prices also gained support from a recovery in global equity markets as concerns over stricter Democratic-led AI industry regulations eased. Copper benefits directly from the global AI expansion due to its essential role in data centers and power generation. However, the Democrats’ sweeping midterm victory reduced the likelihood of Trump’s proposed tariffs on refined copper.