Copper Holds Gains as Supply Risks Persist

Copper futures traded around $6.57 per pound on Friday, holding recent gains as ongoing supply-side challenges continued to support prices. Analysts highlighted a recent export ban from Congo, along with weaker output from major producers Chile and Peru and disruptions linked to El-Nino. Chile’s copper production fell 9.4% year-on-year in July due to severe weather and mine maintenance. China’s refined copper production also declined 3% to 1.1 million tons in June. Meanwhile, tariff uncertainty continues to encourage shipments into the US, pushing Comex inventories to record highs while tightening supplies elsewhere. On the demand side, renewed hostilities between the US and Iran raised concerns that elevated energy prices could weigh on global economic activity and metals demand.

Copper futures traded near $6.5 per pound on Thursday, holding most of the pullback from the record-high of $6.7 on August 25th, as macroeconomic headwinds momentarily offset the impact of supply shortages. Long-term bond yields surged as energy prices rebounded and markets took heed of widening public deficits, hurting the outlook for broad manufacturing and driving base metal price to ease. Still, fresh escalation to the war in the Middle East prolonged pressure on global supply of sulfuric acid, triggering shortages of the key material for copper refiners. This was magnified by lingering concerns that the US presidential administration is could impose tariffs on unprocessed copper goods triggered a surge in buying to front-load deliveries. Consequently, backwardation curves steepened both in major Western copper exchanges.

Copper fell toward $6.4 per pound on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level in a month as rising oil prices and global bond yields kept inflationary risks and interest rate concerns in focus, weighing on the demand outlook. Oil prices advanced for a third consecutive session amid escalating hostilities between the US and Iran, complicating efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Global bond yields climbed on mounting inflationary pressures and worsening fiscal conditions, reinforcing expectations that major central banks may need to raise interest rates soon. Higher borrowing costs could eventually slow global economic growth, dampening demand for industrial metals such as copper. Still, tight global copper supply offered some support, with top producer Chile reporting a 9.4% decline in output in July. Traders also continued redirecting copper shipments toward the US ahead of potential new import tariffs, with the White House yet to make a decision on the issue.