Copper Firms Up as Supply Disruptions Persist

Copper futures jumped above $6.7 per pound on Monday, moving toward fresh record highs amid further signs of tightening global supply. China’s refined copper output is expected to decline for a second consecutive month in August as persistent shortages of copper concentrate and other smelter feedstocks continue to weigh on operating rates, highlighting increasingly tight raw material availability. At the same time, tighter domestic tax-invoice regulations have reduced the availability of VAT-compliant recycled copper, limiting another key source of smelter feedstock and putting further pressure on refined output. In top producer Chile, state-owned miner Codelco reportedly expects copper production to decline this year as it faces setbacks at its mines and development projects. Traders also remained cautious about potential US import tariffs on copper, which have continued to divert metal away from international markets and into US warehouses.

Copper futures fell to around $6.55 per pound, hitting near two-week lows as elevated prices weakened demand and discouraged buyers in top consumer China. The Yangshan premium, which reflects the premium paid above the benchmark LME copper price for refined copper imported into China, declined to $96 per ton after reaching $115 a ton last month. However, concerns over tightening supply continued to underpin prices amid expectations for constrained global mine output. Chilean state-owned miner Codelco reportedly expects lower copper production this year as it faces setbacks at its mines and development projects. The company has abandoned its previous target of producing 1.34 million metric tons this year, compared with last year’s revised output of 1.307 million tons. Traders also remained cautious about potential US import tariffs on copper, which have continued to divert metal away from international markets and into US warehouses.

Copper futures climbed toward $6.65 per pound on Wednesday, rising for the third straight session, supported by signs of tightening global supply and expectations for constrained mine output. Traders remained cautious over potential US import tariffs on copper, which have continued to redirect metal from international markets into US warehouses. The Democratic Republic of Congo also recently imposed an export ban on copper concentrate, although the move is unlikely to have a major impact on global supplies. Meanwhile, the long-term outlook for copper extraction and production is becoming increasingly constrained by declining ore grades, environmental regulations and geopolitical risks. On the demand side, copper continues to benefit from robust consumption driven by the global shift toward electrification and the expansion of artificial intelligence data centers.