Arabica Coffee Futures Rally

Arabica coffee futures surged above $2.9 per pound, rebounding recent one-month lows hit in the last week of October. The market remains caught between signs of limited availability in the short term and prospects for increased production in the coming months. Despite rising coffee arrivals at ICE-accredited warehouses, particularly from Brazil, certified Arabica inventories remain historically low. Total stocks stood at 225,068 bags on October 29, remaining close to the 27-year lows recorded in mid-September, while nearly 44,000 bags were awaiting classification. Meanwhile, market attention remains focused on weather conditions in top producer Brazil for the development of the next crop. Conditions have so far remained favourable, although concerns persist over the uneven distribution of rainfall across key producing regions and the potential impact of the El Niño phenomenon. A weaker Brazilian real added to the downward pressure.

Coffee decreased to 283.50 USd/Lbs, the lowest since October 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee lost 2.32%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 27.56%.

Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.9 per pound, their lowest since October 9, amid improving supply prospects and continued selling pressure linked to the Brazilian real. The currency has recovered some ground since its sharp post-election decline following Lula’s surprise re-election. but remained below pre-election levels. Meanwhile, attention remains focused on the development of Brazil’s next crop and the replenishment of global stocks. Recent rainfall has supported flowering and early crop development, improving production prospects, although concerns over irregular precipitation and high temperatures persist. Export figures have also pointed to stronger supply flows, with Brazilian coffee shipments reaching approximately 3.30 million bags by October 22, up 43.2% from the same period a year earlier, according to Cecafé. Certified Arabica stocks remain historically low, which recently raised concerns about deliveries of the nearest contracts.