Coffee Hits 4-week Low

Coffee decreased to 283.50 USd/Lbs, the lowest since October 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee lost 2.32%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 27.56%.

Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.9 per pound, their lowest since October 9, amid improving supply prospects and continued selling pressure linked to the Brazilian real. The currency has recovered some ground since its sharp post-election decline following Lula’s surprise re-election. but remained below pre-election levels. Meanwhile, attention remains focused on the development of Brazil’s next crop and the replenishment of global stocks. Recent rainfall has supported flowering and early crop development, improving production prospects, although concerns over irregular precipitation and high temperatures persist. Export figures have also pointed to stronger supply flows, with Brazilian coffee shipments reaching approximately 3.30 million bags by October 22, up 43.2% from the same period a year earlier, according to Cecafé. Certified Arabica stocks remain historically low, which recently raised concerns about deliveries of the nearest contracts.

Arabica coffee futures dropped over 3% to trade slightly below $3 per pound, their lowest since mid-October, pressured by a weaker Brazilian real following the presidential election results and expectations of improved supply. The real’s depreciation makes coffee exports more attractive to local producers by increasing their returns in local-currency terms, potentially boosting global supply. Meanwhile, traders monitored Brazilian export volumes and weather conditions ahead of the next harvest. Brazilian coffee shipments reached approximately 3.30 million bags by October 22, up 43.2% from the same period a year earlier, according to Cecafé. The increase in shipments comes as Rabobank sees the potential for a recovery in global coffee stocks in the coming cycles, due to favorable weather conditions in the main producing regions. ICE-certified arabica stocks have declined over the past month and remain only moderately above their 27-year low at around 240,000 bags.