Arabica Coffee Futures at Near 1-Month High

Arabica coffee futures surged to around $2.95 per pound, their highest since early September, partly due to quality concerns over Brazil's 2026 crop and uncertainty about the next season. Although Brazil is heading toward a record crop this year, recent heavy rainfall in the world's largest coffee producer not only delayed harvest but also affected the drying process of highest quality beans. This also means less coffee will be available to replenish depleted stocks in ICE-certified warehouses in both the US and Europe. Certified Arabica coffee stocks on ICE remain historically tight, hovering at a 27-year low in September before recovering somewhat. Meanwhile, traders continued to monitor weather conditions which could prove critical for the 2027 coffee crop as El Niño poses a potential threat. The crop is entering its flowering period, with concerns mounting over limited rainfall in key Arabica-producing areas, particularly Minas Gerais.

Arabica coffee futures rose to near $2.9 per pound, their highest level since mid-September, mainly on short covering following weeks of downward pressure. Still, gains remain capped by expectations of ample Brazilian supplies, with the country on track for a record 2026 crop and higher export flows adding to global availability. Brazil’s 2026 harvest is now almost complete, and Conab recently raised its production estimate to 67.6 million bags from 66.7 million previously, marking a 19.6% increase from the 2025 crop. Arabica production is expected to account for most of the increase, reaching 48.2 million bags, up 34.8% yoy, more than offsetting lower Robusta output. Recent weather conditions have also been favorable for the development of the next crop, although El Niño risks remain under close watch. Meanwhile, reports that additional Brazilian Arabica shipments are being prepared for certification at ICE warehouses could help replenish depleted inventories.

Arabica coffee futures traded below $2.80 per pound, near their lowest since June, amid signs of increased global supply and more favorable prospects for Brazil's next crop. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently projected that global output in 2025/26 will have grown 4.4% yoy to a record 183.6 million bags, while consumption is estimated to have fallen 0.9% to 180.6 million, leaving a surplus of around 3 million bags, the first in five years. Brazilian supply is also picking up, with coffee exports up 31% yoy to a record 4.155 million bags in August. Large volumes of Brazilian Arabica are also heading to ICE warehouses, which could help replenish low inventories. Meanwhile, recent rains in Brazil’s main producing regions have improved soil moisture during a crucial period for flowering and development of the 2027/28 crop. However, the outlook remains weather-dependent, particularly from December to March, when rainfall will be key for fruit development and final yields.