Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 2-Month Low

2026-09-08 15:25 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

Arabica coffee futures extended their decline to around $2.9 per pound, hovering near the lowest since June, as the completion of Brazil’s harvest brings greater availability to the market.

The country is heading for a record coffee crop in 2026, benefiting from a strong biennial cycle, expanded production areas and favorable weather.

Moreover, Brazilian coffee exports surged 45% over a year ago in August.

However, the balance between global supply and demand remains tight and vulnerable to climate risks.

ICE arabica coffee inventories continued to fall and reached a 27-year low of 223,712 bags by September 3.

Meanwhile, the onset of El Niño in the equatorial Pacific is putting Brazil’s 2027 coffee crop under closer scrutiny.

The associated changes in rainfall and temperature patterns in different regions of the country could interfere with crucial stages of the coffee plant's cycle, such as flowering, as well as affecting fruit set, bean filling, and the uniformity of ripening.



News Stream
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Arabica coffee futures rose to nearly $3.10 per pound, their highest level since early September, amid concerns over near-term supply and uncertainty surrounding Brazil’s next harvest. Traders are increasingly worried that coffee shipments from top grower Brazil may not reach ICE warehouses before the December contract expires. Certified stocks remain critically low at 238,976 bags, close to last month’s 27-year low of 217,646 bags. Against this backdrop, market participants are closely monitoring the pace of Brazilian coffee sales and exporters’ willingness to release and ship supplies, as delays could prolong tight market conditions. Meanwhile, attention was also on the 2027 harvest, with an expected strengthening of El Niño towards the end of the year and into early 2027 raising concerns over rainfall patterns and crop development. Weather conditions during key growth stages, particularly flowering and fruit set, will be crucial to the outlook for Brazilian production.
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