Coffee Hits 4-week Low

Arabica coffee futures eased toward $3 per pound, reaching their lowest since late June, pressured by expectations of higher output from top producer Brazil. The 2026/27 coffee harvest was 97% complete by August 26, according to Safras & Mercado, with Arabica at 96% and the country on track for a potentially record crop..Rabobank echoed the favorable supply outlook, saying it still expects a “very comfortable” global coffee balance in 2026/27, with a surplus of 8.9 million bags. However, it noted that delays in Brazil and earthquake-related problems in Colombia are keeping stocks tight, with significant replenishment unlikely before November.. Arabica coffee stocks monitored by ICE continued to fall, reaching 223,976 bags by August 31, the lowest level in 27 years. Meanwhile, next year’s harvest remained in focus, with the outlook clouded by erratic weather and the risk of a strong El Niño potentially delaying critical rainfall during the September-October flowering period.

Coffee decreased to 303.10 USd/Lbs, the lowest since August 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee lost 0.33%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 20.54%.

Arabica coffee futures extended their decline, trading around $3.1 per pound, the lowest level since August 6, amid the prospect of increased coffee supply in Brazil. More than 90% of the harvest has now been completed, helped by drier weather, with the country heading for a record crop of around 75 million bags. The prospect of additional supply is particularly relevant against a backdrop of dwindling inventories, potentially easing some of the tightness in the market. Reports that some Brazilian warehouses are nearing capacity also pressured prices, as limited storage space could force farmers to sell more beans. However, erratic weather and growing climate risks continue to cloud the outlook for next year’s crop. Fears of a potentially strong El Niño persisted, as the weather pattern could delay rainfall during the critical September-October flowering period.