Arabica Coffee Prices at 2024-Lows

Arabica coffee futures continued to ease to trade slightly below $2.50 per pound, a fresh low since November 2024, pressured by prospects of robust supply. The Brazilian harvest remains in focus, with fieldwork reportedly progressing well under dry and hot conditions, supporting the flow of new beans. This reinforced expectations of a bumper crop this season. In its latest report, the USDA projected Brazil’s 2026/27 crop at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14% from 2025/26 and above the 2020/21 level. This figure is notably higher than Conab’s official estimate of 66.7 million bags. The arabica crop is forecast at 47.5 million bags, up 25% year-on-year and near record levels seen in 2018 and 2020, marking the end of a five-year period of weaker production due to adverse weather conditions. Separately, Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global coffee surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags from 7.0 million, including 5.9 million bags of arabica.

Coffee decreased to 262.75 USd/Lbs, the lowest since November 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee lost 7.82%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 23.31%.

Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.70 per pound, near their lowest since November 2024, on expectations of a bumper harvest in top grower Brazil. Prices are down more than 20% this year, driven by improved production forecasts for Brazil’s output from several leading consultancies, following the decline in production in 2025. Despite a reportedly slow start to the harvest in some producing regions, the crop is progressing without major issues and could deliver a record output, helping replenish global coffee supplies. Brazil’s Conab recently raised its 2026/27 coffee production forecast to a record 66.7 million bags from 66.2 million in February, an 18% increase from the previous season. Arabica output is projected at 45.8 million bags, up 28% year on year and the third-largest on record, supported by a positive biennial cycle and favorable weather conditions. Rabobank said that, unless a major weather event occurs, the market will gradually enter a phase of large surplus.