Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 1-Year Low

Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.70 per pound, near their lowest since November 2024, on expectations of a bumper harvest in top grower Brazil. Prices are down more than 20% this year, driven by improved production forecasts for Brazil’s output from several leading consultancies, following the decline in production in 2025. Despite a reportedly slow start to the harvest in some producing regions, the crop is progressing without major issues and could deliver a record output, helping replenish global coffee supplies. Brazil’s Conab recently raised its 2026/27 coffee production forecast to a record 66.7 million bags from 66.2 million in February, an 18% increase from the previous season. Arabica output is projected at 45.8 million bags, up 28% year on year and the third-largest on record, supported by a positive biennial cycle and favorable weather conditions. Rabobank said that, unless a major weather event occurs, the market will gradually enter a phase of large surplus.

Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.6 per pound, near the lowest since November 2024, pressured by expectations of increased supply in the near-term. Traders closely monitor the incoming 2026/27 harvest in top producer Brazil. Weather conditions remain favorable in Brazilian producing areas, with predominantly dry weather and high temperatures, which is favoring the progress of the harvest and reducing risks to production at this time. Even though it is still in its initial phase, the market is already anticipating a larger harvest, keeping prices under pressure. In late April, the Coffee Trading Academy forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 output to rise 12% year-over-year to 71.4 million bags. Meanwhile, the demand outlook is clouded by potential price increases tied to the ongoing US–Israeli conflict with Iran.

Coffee decreased to 274.45 USd/Lbs, the lowest since November 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee lost 4.86%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 30.58%.