Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 1-Year Low

Arabica coffee futures traded around $3.3 per pound, hovering near their highest since late July, supported by the slower pace of the Brazilian harvest and concerns about supply. Safras & Mercado reported on August 14 that the Brazil 2026/27 coffee harvest was 90% completed as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 5-year average of 94%. Brazil's arabica coffee harvest was 86% complete, behind last year's 95%. In the meantime, latest data showed ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 231,445 bags. Attention is already shifting to the 2027/28 harvest, but uncertainty over the current crop and ongoing weather risks are keeping the market cautious, with new deals remaining scarce. Meanwhile, traders continued to assess the impact of earthquake-related disruptions to Colombian coffee exports, with shipments through the main port Buenaventura only partially resumed and remaining limited.

Arabica coffee futures traded around $3.10 per pound, near the lowest since early August, as drier conditions in Brazil supported the final stages of the harvest, raising near-term supply prospects. This is particularly important as ICE arabica inventories remain tight, currently at a 2.75-year low of 236,430 bags. Meanwhile, Cecafé data showed that the country shipped 3.03 million 60-kg bags of coffee in July, the first month of the 2026/27 crop year, up 9.9% from a year earlier. Attention remains focused on weather conditions amid concerns over Brazil’s 2027 crop, with the effects of El Niño posing potential risks to crop development. Elsewhere, Colombia, the world’s second-largest producer of Arabica coffee, has partially resumed coffee exports through Buenaventura, its main coffee-export port, although traffic remains intermittent and limited. Exporters said the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing or milling facilities.

Arabica coffee futures have fluctuated in recent weeks, before consolidating below $3.10 per pound to their lowest level in a month. Still, the market continued to be supported by tight supplies, uncertainty over the quality of Brazil's harvest, coffee growers' reluctance to sell, and weather-related risks associated with El Niño. Although a record Brazilian harvest of more than 70 million bags is expected this season, the balance between supply and demand remains tight, particularly in the higher-quality. Traders remain concerned that rains in key producing regions, including Minas Gerais and São Paulo, during June and July, may have affected the quality of part of the crop. ICE arabica coffee fell to a 2.5-year low of 251,417 bags as of August 7, down sharply from the 754,516 bags last year. At the same time, Brazilian producers continue to sell gradually, limiting immediate coffee availability. Meanwhile, the developing "super" El Niño remains a key risk to next year's harvest.