Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 5-Month Low

Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.9 per pound, their lowest since October 9, amid improving supply prospects and continued selling pressure linked to the Brazilian real. The currency has recovered some ground since its sharp post-election decline following Lula’s surprise re-election. but remained below pre-election levels. Meanwhile, attention remains focused on the development of Brazil’s next crop and the replenishment of global stocks. Recent rainfall has supported flowering and early crop development, improving production prospects, although concerns over irregular precipitation and high temperatures persist. Export figures have also pointed to stronger supply flows, with Brazilian coffee shipments reaching approximately 3.30 million bags by October 22, up 43.2% from the same period a year earlier, according to Cecafé. Certified Arabica stocks remain historically low, which recently raised concerns about deliveries of the nearest contracts.

Arabica coffee futures dropped over 3% to trade slightly below $3 per pound, their lowest since mid-October, pressured by a weaker Brazilian real following the presidential election results and expectations of improved supply. The real’s depreciation makes coffee exports more attractive to local producers by increasing their returns in local-currency terms, potentially boosting global supply. Meanwhile, traders monitored Brazilian export volumes and weather conditions ahead of the next harvest. Brazilian coffee shipments reached approximately 3.30 million bags by October 22, up 43.2% from the same period a year earlier, according to Cecafé. The increase in shipments comes as Rabobank sees the potential for a recovery in global coffee stocks in the coming cycles, due to favorable weather conditions in the main producing regions. ICE-certified arabica stocks have declined over the past month and remain only moderately above their 27-year low at around 240,000 bags.

Arabica coffee futures traded around $3.10 per pound, holding near their highest since late August, amid concerns over tight inventories and weather-related risks in top producer Brazil. Despite a strong 2026 harvest and ample coffee stocks in Brazil’s producing regions, quality concerns persist, while inventories on international exchanges remain critically low. Certified arabica coffee stocks stood at approximately 240,000 bags in the latest report, their lowest level in nearly 27 years. Operators remained concerned that Brazilian shipments may not reach ICE-certified warehouses before the December contract expires. A firmer Brazilian real has provided additional support by reducing producers’ incentives to sell. Meanwhile, weather conditions across key regions continued to be closely monitored, with a strengthening El Niño towards late 2026 and early 2027 posing risks to rainfall patterns and crop development.