Coffee Futures Ease on Brazil Rain Forecasts

Coffee decreased to 314.50 USd/Lbs, the lowest since August 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee lost 12.31%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 21.21%.

Arabica coffee futures eased to around $3.20 per pound, the lowest since August 2025, as improved supply prospects outweighed short-term shortages. Reuters reports indicate that the weather in Brazil has been more favorable than last year, and Arabica coffee production in the 2026 harvest is expected to be higher than in 2025. According to Cepea, the heavier rains in recent days in practically all coffee-growing regions of Brazil have brought relief to Arabica producers, favoring the filling of the beans of this variety, during the decisive phase for the good development of the crop. Meanwhile, sales of Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop reached approximately 8% of its production potential, compared to 9% in the same period last year and a historical average of 17%, according to Safras & Mercados. This is because futures prices remain below spot prices, discouraging forward sales. The recent devaluation of the Brazilian real has also added downward pressure.

Arabica coffee futures rose toward $3.55 per pound, rebounding from recent four-week lows of $3.46, influenced by currency movements, supply dynamics and weather conditions affecting crops in major producing countries. In particular, the ongoing Brazilian real’s relative strength tends to discourage export sales by Brazil’s coffee producers. Dealers also noted that the drop in Brazilian grain exports in 2025 continued to weigh on prices. Cecafé reported on January 19 that Brazilian green coffee exports fell 18.4% yoy in December to 2.86 million bags, with Arabica shipments down 10% to 2.6 million bags and Robusta plunging 61% to 222,147 bags. In the meantime, reduced supplies from Colombia added further pressure. Meanwhile, a report from Itaú BBA highlighted that, in the coming months, prices are likely to remain sensitive to erratic weather in Brazil, characterized by below-average rainfall and intense heat, alongside the geopolitical environment.