Cocoa Futures Hover Around 3-Week Low

Cocoa futures traded around $5,900 per tonne, holding close to their lowest since August 26, amid signs of abundant short-term supply. ICE cocoa inventories stand at a two-year high of around 3.42 million bags. Moreover, Ivory Coast cocoa shipments reached 2.14 million metric tons in the current international marketing year through Sept. 13, up 18% from a year earlier, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, the market continues to monitor crop diseases, excessive rainfall, and plantation conditions across West Africa. The outlook for the 2026/27 season remains uncertain, with weather risks, particularly the development of the El Niño weather pattern, threatening crops in the Ivory Coast and Ghana. This year’s strong El Niño could intensify the dry harmattan winds, which typically arrive in the region around November. This would mark a shift from excessive moisture to conditions that could threaten the final stages of the main crop, which typically runs from October to March.

Cocoa futures fell toward $5,900 per tonne, the lowest in two weeks, amid signs of ample supply. Inventories monitored by ICE have surged to a two-year high of 3.44 million bags, while expectations of a larger crop in top producer Ivory Coast have further eased concerns over near-term availability. Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s largest cocoa processor, echoed the more comfortable supply outlook, saying the global market is well supplied and better positioned to withstand disruptions than during the 2023/24 El Niño event, which sent prices to record highs. Still, the outlook for the 2026/27 season remains uncertain, with weather risks, particularly the development of a strong El Niño, threatening West African crops. The Cocoa Marketing Company Ghana, Ltd indicated that production could fall by as much as 38%, nearly twice the previously estimated decline, citing diseases, aging crops, and unusual pollination failures. Output in Ivory Coast is expected to drop by at least 20%.

Cocoa futures traded below $6,200 per tonne, hovering close to their lowest in over a week, on profit-booking and signs of improving supplies. Latest data showed Ivory Coast farmers shipped 2.14 MMT of cocoa to ports through August 30, 19% more than a year earlier. The country also plans to boost processing capacity to 1.3 MMT in 2026/27 from 650,000 MT. Meanwhile, ICE inventories climbed to a two-year high of 3,411,776 bags as of September 1. Still, concerns over West African cocoa supply persisted as heavy rainfall and high humidity increased disease risks and weakened pod development, threatening production from both the current and next crops. A strong El Niño could delay the rains and extend dry spells across major West African producers, with stronger Harmattan winds placing additional stress on crops.