Cocoa Hits 4-week Low

Cocoa futures hovered around $5,400 a tonne, holding close to their lowest since early October, pressured by a sustained increase in ICE inventories. The volume of cocoa held in ICE-monitored warehouses has grown throughout the year, reaching a 2.5-year high of 3,688,949 bags by October 29. Meanwhile, farmers in Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, reported that despite below-average rainfall across most growing regions, conditions remained adequate to support the current September-to-February main crop. The outlook for the broader 2026/27 season, however, is less encouraging. StoneX projects global production to decline by 9.6% to 4.74 million tonnes, potentially turning a 494,000-tonne surplus in 2025/26 into a 64,000-tonne deficit. Output is expected to contract across several major producers, including Ivory Coast, Ghana, Ecuador and Indonesia, amid weather disruptions associated with El Niño.

Cocoa decreased to 5374.00 USD/T, the lowest since October 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Cocoa gained 0.22%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 12.33%.

Cocoa futures stabilized around $5,600 a tonne, close to their lowest since early October, amid signs of rising inventories. ICE cocoa inventories have steadily expanded since the start of the year, reaching a 2.5-year high of 3,635,354 bags by October 21. Still, signs of improving demand and concerns over West African supplies limted the downside. Cocoa grindings across key processing regions rose 14.3% in Q3, beating market expectations as Asian processing jumped 29.2% and European volumes increased by 3.2%. North America was the exception, recording a 2.5% decline. On the supply side, concerns are mounting over the 2026/27 West African cocoa crop. Below-average rainfall in the Ivory Coast has raised fears of weaker pod development, while Ghana is also facing a potentially smaller harvest amid weather-related stress and crop disease. The expected strong impact of El Niño adds further uncertainty.