Cocoa Hits 11-week High

Cocoa futures rose above $4,100 per tonne, hitting the highest level since February, amid growing supply risks. While weather conditions in West Africa, particularly in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, have recently improved, supporting short-term output and allowing for a gradual rebuilding of global stocks, the outlook remains uncertain. Irregular rainfall during the key mid-crop season continues to pose risks, especially if dry spells persist and affect yields and bean quality in the latter stages of the harvest. Moreover, fertilizer shortages and the rising likelihood of the El Niño phenomenon are expected to constrain 2026/27 production, with farmers in top grower Ivory Coast already reporting difficulties securing inputs amid cash constraints. Reflecting this, StoneX has lowered its global cocoa surplus forecasts for both 2025/26 and 2026/27, signaling tighter supply conditions. On the demand side, conditions remain subdued.

Cocoa increased to 3717.00 USD/T, the highest since February 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Cocoa gained 13.9%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 57.42%.

Cocoa futures have traded in a narrow range around $3,400 per tonne, close to the lowest since 2023, reflecting expectations of abundant supply alongside signs of subdued global demand. On the supply side, weather conditions have generally improved in key West African producers such as Ivory Coast and Ghana, supporting better production prospects. However, irregular rainfall in Ivory Coast’s main cocoa-growing regions is starting to raise concerns in the global cocoa market, particularly at a critical stage for the development of the mid-crop, which runs from March to August. While harvesting is still progressing and farmers report good pod development that should support output in the short term (particularly in May and June), continued dry weather could eventually reduce yields and also hurt bean quality later in the season. Meanwhile, recent grinding data suggested that cocoa demand remains weak, as Europe and the United States continued to report declines.