Brent Crude Extends Retreat

Brent crude oil futures fell more than 5% to the $105 per barrel mark on Wednesday on fresh hope that supply from the Middle East could be gradually restored. US President Trump stated the US was on the final stages of talks with Iran over their conflict, backing early statements that Tehran could end the war quickly. An agreement would likely end each country's naval blockade of commercial vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz, which has suspended tanker flows through the chokepoint since March. Optimism on supply was magnified by satellite data showing three supertankers crossing the Strait, potentially reflecting a looser grip on traffic. The Persian Gulf would typically supply economies with around 20 million barrels of oil per day, and the war triggered a surge in prices that topped at $116 per barrel in March. Consistently, crude oil inventories fell for the fourth straight week, and the US SPR was depleted by 10 million barrels, standing a 6.6% annual decline.

Brent crude futures fell for a second straight session to around $107 per barrel on Wednesday, as traders grew cautiously optimistic that the US and Iran could reach an agreement, despite conflicting signals from both sides. US President Trump said the conflict with Iran could end “very quickly,” while also warning that Washington could resume strikes if negotiations fail. Trump had recently called off a planned US attack scheduled for Tuesday as part of efforts to advance a potential deal. Iran threatened to extend the conflict ‘beyond the region’ if the US and Israel resume attacks. Meanwhile, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to support oil prices and although some vessels have resumed transit, the key shipping route remains largely restricted. Reports indicated that three supertankers carrying crude departed the Strait on Wednesday. In the US, crude oil inventories fell for a 4th straight week. Oil prices remain roughly 50% above levels seen before the conflict began.

Brent crude fell toward $110 per barrel on Wednesday, pulling back from recent highs as investors assessed President Donald Trump’s renewed threat to resume military strikes on Iran if it failed to accept US peace terms. The comments came less than a day after Trump said he had called off a planned attack following appeals from Gulf allies, while warning that Washington could act within “two or three days.” The developments added to persistent uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict, with Iran’s nuclear program remaining a key obstacle in negotiations. The war has now entered its 12th week and has effectively kept the strategic Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping traffic, supporting oil prices and fueling inflation concerns. Meanwhile, reports indicated that NATO is weighing plans to escort commercial vessels through the waterway if the route remains blocked beyond early July, adding another layer of uncertainty to the market.