Brent Gains as Mideast Disruptions Persist

Brent crude futures climbed above $107 per barrel on Monday, extending gains from last week as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed amid stalled US–Iran peace talks. US President Donald Trump has instructed negotiators to suspend discussions, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated that Tehran will not engage in “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.” The Iran war has now entered its ninth week, triggering what the IEA has described as the biggest energy supply shock on record, while intensifying inflationary pressures and weighing on the global growth outlook. The ongoing US naval blockade continues to constrain Iranian crude exports and stands as a key barrier to any diplomatic progress. Analysts note that even if the strait reopens, it could take months for oil flows to normalize, leaving supplies constrained and sustaining upward pressure on global energy markets.

Brent crude is set to extend gains when markets reopen after the weekend, as hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz faded once more. Iran’s foreign minister left Pakistan on Sunday without meeting US officials, following President Trump’s order to halt negotiations. Last week, brent crude rose 17% as supply concerns remained elevated as the key shipping route remains largely closed. The ongoing US naval blockade continues to restrict Iranian crude exports and remains a major obstacle to progress. Analysts say that even if the strait reopens, oil flows could take months to normalize, keeping supplies tight and pressure on global energy markets.

Brent crude futures traded around $105.7 per barrel on Friday, marking a fifth straight session of gains and bringing the weekly advance to roughly 17% as supply concerns remained elevated. The White House said it would send envoys to Pakistan, where Iranian officials are also expected, raising cautious hopes that stalled US Iran talks could resume and eventually lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran signaled a more guarded stance, with reports indicating no formal negotiations are currently planned during Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit. While the possibility of diplomacy has trimmed some geopolitical risk premium, markets remain focused on the continued disruption to flows as the key shipping route stays largely closed. The US naval blockade is still limiting Iranian exports and remains a key sticking point, and analysts warn that even if the strait reopens, it could take months for supply flows to fully normalize.