Brent Crude Rises 4%

Brent crude futures rose by more 4% to above $99 per barrel on Thursday as doubts resurfaced over ongoing US–Iran negotiations. Reuters reported that the peace talks now point to diminished prospects for a broad agreement and opening of the Strait of Hormuz and are now focused on securing a temporary memorandum to avoid renewed conflict. Meanwhile, benchmark prices showed little immediate reaction after President Trump said Israeli and Lebanese leaders had agreed to begin a 10-day ceasefire starting Thursday. Further supporting prices, signs of tightening supply are emerging. After seven consecutive weeks of builds, US crude inventories fell by 9.13 million barrels last week, far exceeding analysts’ expectations for a 154,000-barrel increase, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Brent crude futures rose above $97 per barrel on Thursday after facing pressure earlier in the week, as investors assessed the likelihood of an extension of the ceasefire between the US and Iran while weighing the possibility for a broader agreement that could end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicated that Washington and Tehran are mulling an extension to their two-week ceasefire to allow more time to negotiate a peace deal. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with a US naval blockade on Iranian ports still in place, keeping markets on edge over further supply disruptions. Iran also warned it could retaliate against an extended US blockade by suspending shipments across the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea. Markets are now turning their attention to a likely second round of US-Iran talks, expected to center on reopening the strait and Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities.

Brent crude futures swung around $95 per barrel on Wednesday and volatility is expected to persist as traders assess ongoing developments in the Middle East and a steady stream of headlines for signs that the conflict could ease soon and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could resume. The US military said it had fully halted commercial traffic to and from Iranian ports, though shipping data indicated that several Iran-linked vessels continued to transit the strait. Meanwhile, The Washington Post reported that the US Department of Defense plans to deploy an additional 6,000 troops to the region in the coming days, followed by a further 4,200 by the end of the month. Israeli forces also carried out airstrikes on towns in southern Lebanon. These developments come as a second round of talks between the US and Iran is expected in the near term. US President Trump said the conflict is “very close to over,” adding that Iranian authorities appear willing to reach a peace agreement.