Brent Holds Decline as Iran Talks Eyed

Brent crude futures held around $100 per barrel on Tuesday after plunging more than 10% in the previous session, as President Donald Trump postponed planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days and said productive talks with the country are ongoing. His decision to delay the strike was seen as an effort to stabilize oil prices, with Trump saying they would “drop like a rock” once a deal is reached. However, Tehran denied that any negotiations were taking place, while Israel continued its attacks on Iran. Markets are now pricing in the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as the conflict effectively shut the critical global chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, forcing Middle Eastern producers to significantly curb output. Iran remains in firm control of the narrow waterway, with only a limited number of ships able to pass depending on alliances.

Brent crude oil futures plunged more than 10% to around $98 per barrel on Monday after President Donald Trump signaled de escalation by ordering a five day pause on planned US strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure. The move followed what Trump described as constructive talks with Iran over the past two days aimed at resolving the conflict, with discussions set to continue this week. The announcement eased immediate supply fears after heightened tensions tied to a US deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments. Markets reacted sharply as the risk of further disruption to energy infrastructure temporarily declined, while attention now turns to whether diplomatic efforts can lead to a sustained reopening of the key waterway. However, Iran’s Fars News Agency denied any negotiations, attributing Trump’s move to Iran’s threat to strike all West Asian power plants.

Brent crude futures climbed above $113 per barrel on Monday, on track for their highest close since mid-2022 as investors assessed Trump’s ultimatum urging Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, Trump warned he would “obliterate” major Iranian power plants if the waterway is not reopened to shipping by late Monday. In response, Tehran said it would target US and Israeli assets across the region, including energy, information technology and desalination infrastructure, if its own energy facilities were struck. A senior Iranian official also warned that financial entities purchasing US Treasuries could be considered “legitimate targets.” Oil prices have surged roughly 50% since the Iran war began, as the conflict shows no signs of easing, effectively shutting Hormuz and sharply reducing Middle Eastern oil production. A coordinated release of strategic reserves and US efforts to facilitate the sale of Russian and Iranian oil have so far failed to curb the rally.