Brent Falls More than 10% as Trump Delays Iran Strikes

Brent crude futures fell nearly 1% to below $97 per barrel on Thursday, snapping a three-day rally, as hopes for an agreement with Iran to end the conflict increased modestly. The US said that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a ceasefire, conditional on Hezbollah also halting its attacks. However, there was no immediate indication that Hezbollah had accepted the terms of the agreement. Also, President Trump said on Wednesday that progress in negotiations with Iran could be achieved as early as this weekend. Despite these diplomatic and political signals, tensions in the region remain elevated. The US and Iran have exchanged strikes in recent days, while the conflict has spilled over into Bahrain and Kuwait. On the supply side, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories fell for a sixth consecutive week, bringing stockpiles closer to minimum operating levels.

Brent crude futures fell below $97 per barrel on Thursday after three consecutive sessions of gains, as investors assessed escalating tensions between the US and Iran that continue to cloud prospects for a peace agreement and the normalization of Middle Eastern energy flows. Following a US strike on an empty oil tanker bound for Iran on Tuesday, Iran launched attacks on US naval bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, as well as commercial vessels. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies, has remained subdued since the conflict began. Still, reports suggest traffic through the waterway has picked up over the past two weeks, with some vessels operating in coordination with the US military, though volumes remain well below pre-conflict levels. Meanwhile, EIA data showed US crude inventories declined for a sixth consecutive week, approaching minimum operating levels.

Brent crude oil futures extended gains to nearly 2%, reaching $97.6 per barrel after EIA data showed a sixth consecutive weekly decline in US crude inventories. Stockpiles fell by 7.97 million barrels last week, the most since February and well above expectations for a 4 million barrel decrease. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said Iran had agreed not to pursue a nuclear weapon and suggested he could meet Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei if developments continue positively. Despite the comments, tensions between Washington and Tehran remained elevated as negotiations over an interim peace agreement continued. The situation has been further complicated by Israel’s expanding operations in Lebanon, with Trump confirming he had urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to de-escalate the conflict during a recent call. Overnight, US and Iranian forces were involved in one of the most serious confrontations since the ceasefire began, with Kuwait and Bahrain caught in the crossfire.