Brent Falls More than 10% as Trump Delays Iran Strikes

Brent fell below $74 per barrel on Friday, reversing the previous session's gains as investors assessed rising shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz despite a vessel being struck by an unidentified projectile off the coast of Oman. The incident revived security concerns and heightened fears that Iran could exert greater control over traffic in the key waterway, while several commercial ships turned back, threatening the progress achieved through US-Iran peace efforts. Washington and Tehran continue to negotiate a permanent agreement to end the conflict, though talks on key issues such as nuclear policy are expected to remain prolonged. Even with the latest disruption, oil flows from the Persian Gulf through Hormuz reached their fastest pace since the war began. Middle Eastern producers are ramping up output despite difficulties securing enough tankers to transport the additional crude. Brent crude is on track for a third straight weekly drop.

Brent crude oil rose nearly 2% to $74.7 a barrel on Thursday as traders monitored shipments through the Strait of Hormuz after a cargo ship was struck by an unknown projectile off the Omani coast. Reported by the maritime group UKMTO, the incident renewed safety concerns regarding the vital shipping corridor and fueled anxieties over Iran dictating transit while negotiating a permanent end to its war with the US. Several commercial ships reversed course, threatening the normalization of regional oil flows. Despite the disruption, Saudi Arabian tankers continued toward the major Ras Tanura terminal to resume Persian Gulf exports for the first time since March, and Qatar issued its first post-war crude tender. Market attention remains fixed on a potential 2026 global supply surplus, prompting Iraq to demand a higher OPEC production quota. In the US, tightness persisted as stockpiles at Cushing fell below operational requirements to 19 million barrels.

Crude oil rose above $74 a barrel on Thursday after three days of losses, but remained near pre-war levels, as progress in US-Iran peace efforts improved the supply outlook. Growing confidence in a lasting agreement has encouraged more tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz with their tracking signals turned on. Saudi Arabian tankers are heading toward the Ras Tanura terminal to restart Persian Gulf exports for the first time since March. In addition, a temporary US waiver permitting purchases of already-loaded Iranian oil is expected to boost supply. As oil streams through the waterway at its fastest wartime pace, market attention is shifting toward an anticipated 2026 global supply surplus, prompting Iraq to threaten to leave OPEC unless its production quota is increased. Meanwhile, US stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, are below operational requirements at roughly 19 million barrels.