Turkey GDP Growth Softest in a Year

The Turkish economy expanded 2.5% year-on-year in Q1 2026, easing from 3.4% in Q4 and below expectations for 2.7% growth. This marked the softest expansion in a year, as growth slowed in household consumption (4.8% vs 5.2%) and fixed investment (3.0% vs 5.4%). Net trade also weighed on growth as exports plunged 12.7%, while imports declined at a slower pace of 2.0%. In contrast, government spending recovered, rising 2.1% after a 0.9% contraction. On the production side, manufacturing contracted 1.4% after growing 0.9% previously, while growth slowed in construction (3.2% vs 8.6%), trade and transport (3.7% vs 4.2%), and financial and insurance activities (3.5% vs 4.1%). Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry and fishing rebounded 4.6% after a 7.2% decline, while information and communication accelerated to 9.5% from 8.9%. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 0.1%, the weakest pace since a contraction in Q2 2024 and down from 0.4% previously.

The economy of Turkey grew 3.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter 2025, easing from a revised 3.8% expansion in the third quarter and coming in slightly below market expectations of 3.5%. Fixed investment growth slowed sharply (5.4% vs 11.5% in Q3), while government expenditure dropped (-0.9% vs 2.5%). Net trade also weighed on GDP, as exports declined (-2.3% vs -0.8%) while imports rose (3.8% vs 4.4%). However, these were partly offset by a sustained increase in household consumption (5.2% vs 4.3%). On the production side, activity moderated across most sectors, particularly in manufacturing (0.9% vs 7.6%), construction (8.6% vs 14.1%), trade, transportation, accommodation, and food services (4.2% vs 6.5%), and financial and insurance activities (4.1% vs 11.1%). On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 0.4%, slowing from a revised 1.0% increase in the previous quarter. For the full year 2025, the economy expanded 3.6%, just below market forecasts of 3.7%.

The Turkish economy expanded 3.7% year-on-year in Q3 2025, easing from an upwardly revised 4.9% growth in the previous quarter, and more than the expected slowdown to 4.2%. The main drag came from net trade, as exports fell 0.7% (vs. 2% in Q2) while imports rose 4.3% (vs. 8.9%). Meanwhile, household consumption growth accelerated (4.8% vs. 4.4%), fixed investments surged to their highest in two years (11.7% vs. 9.1%), and government spending rebounded (0.8% vs. -0.6%). On the production side, activity growth picked up in construction (13.9% vs. 11.1%), financial and insurance activities (10.8% vs. 4%), information and communication (10.1% vs. 7.1%), other services (7.1% vs. 2.5%), industry (6.5% vs. 6%), and trade, transport, accommodation, and food services (6.3% vs. 5.8%). Conversely, agriculture, forestry, and fishing fell 12.7% after a 5.5% decline previously. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.1%, down from 1.6% in the previous period.