Turkey’s Manufacturers Turn Pessimistic in October

Turkey’s manufacturing confidence index fell further to 99.8 in October 2026 from 102 in the previous month, falling below the 100-point threshold for the first time since December 2024. Confidence in current orders declined to 85.3 from 87.8 in September, while production expectations for the next three months dropped to 107 from 115.6. Export order expectations for the next three months fell to 109.7 from 111.9, while total orders over the past three months decreased to 100.7 from 104.2. Moreover, the general business situation deteriorated further, falling to 83.9 from 90.4. Meanwhile, current finished goods stocks rose to 100.4 from 96.9, while fixed investment expenditure expectations improved to 107.2 from 104.9. Expectations for total employment over the next three months edged up to 104.5 from 104.4.

Turkey’s manufacturing coincidence index fell to 102 in September 2026 from 102.8 in the previous month, marking the lowest reading since April. The decline was driven by weaker production and export expectations, with output over the next three months falling to 115.6 from 121.1 in August, while export orders for the coming three months dropped to 111.9 from 118.3. Expectations for fixed investment expenditure also eased to 104.9 from 105.5, and total orders over the past three months edged down to 104.2 from 104.4. However, firms reported stronger current orders, rising to 87.8 from 84.8, while employment expectations increased to 104.4 from 103.3. Inventories of finished goods fell to 96.9 from 98.1, indicating lower stock levels, while expectations for the general business situation improved to 90.4 from 86.7.

Turkey’s manufacturing confidence index rose to 102.8 in August 2026 from a three-month low of 102.2 in the previous month, as sentiment among manufacturers improved slightly. Confidence was supported by a rebound in total orders over the past three months (104.4 vs 99.9 in July), higher fixed investment expenditure (105.5 vs 104.7), and a modest increase in current total orders (84.8 vs 84.5). Output volumes also strengthened to 121.1 from 119.3, while finished goods inventories rose to 98.1 from 97.0. Export orders increased to 118.3 from 116.6, pointing to firmer external demand. However, the improvement was partly limited by a weaker overall business outlook, which fell to 86.7 from 90.2, while expected employment over the next three months declined to 103.3 from 105.2.