Turkish Business Morale Holds at 5-Month High

Turkey’s manufacturing industry confidence index climbed to 101.6 in January 2026 from 100.8 in the previous month, pointing to a modest improvement in overall sentiment across the sector. This marked the highest reading since April last year, driven by firmer production and demand expectations, with the volume of output over the next three months rising to 111.4 from 110.0 in December, while expectations for employment also strengthened (102.6 vs 101.4). Assessments of order books showed mixed signals, as the total amount of current orders remained weak (86.1 vs 86.3), while expectations improved for orders over the next three months (102.1 vs 100.8) and export orders (107.8 vs 110.0). Firms also reported a higher stock of finished goods (100.5 vs 99.4), suggesting easing inventory pressures. Additionally, sentiment toward fixed investment expenditure firmed notably (107.8 vs 105.6), and views on the general business situation improved (94.1 vs 92.9).

Turkey’s manufacturing industry confidence index held steady at 100.8 in December 2025 for a third consecutive month, remaining at its highest level in five months and signaling broadly stable sentiment across the sector. Some sub-indicators improved, with the employment outlook rising (101.4 vs 99.7 in November) and the current stock of finished goods also increasing (99.4 vs 96.8). Assessments of the general business situation strengthened (92.9 vs 91.0), and the volume of output edged up (110 vs 108.0). In contrast, sentiment weakened in several forward-looking indicators. The total amount of orders slipped (86.3 vs 88.2), total orders over the past three months eased (100.8 vs 104.6), export orders declined (110 vs 111.5), and expectations for fixed investment expenditure softened (105.6 vs 106.5), pointing to a more cautious outlook despite steady overall confidence.

Turkey’s manufacturing industry confidence index stood at 100.8 in November 2025, unchanged from October’s five-month high. The latest reading was driven by stronger sentiment in the total amount of orders (88.2 vs 84.0 in October), total orders over the past three months (104.6 vs 101.4), export orders (111.5 vs 110.3), and the employment outlook (99.7 vs 99.6). These gains were offset by deteriorating sentiment in the current stock of finished goods (96.8 vs 101.2), the general business situation (91.0 vs 92.4), fixed investment expenditure (106.5 vs 107.5), and the volume of output (108.0 vs 110.1).