Sweden Economic Confidence Little Changed

Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator edged up to 99.3 in May 2026 from a seventh-month low of 99.2 in April. Trade remains the only sector where sentiment is stronger than normal (109.1 vs 108.3 in April), due to few firms reporting large inventories, while their assessments of sales volumes over the past three months and expectations for the next three months are also positive. Consumer confidence improved but remained below normal (92.4 vs 91.7). Manufacturing sentiment rose slightly (100.5 vs 100), with production increases matching historical average. Meanwhile, sentiment deteriorated in construction (99.6 vs 100.3), as firms continued to report relatively weak order books, but they expect an increase over the next three months. The same trend was seen in the private services sector (101.3 vs 101.9), amid a still-negative assessment of outstanding business volumes. The share of firms expecting to raise prices over the next three months rose sharply and is now well above normal.

Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator fell to 99.0 in April 2026, its lowest level in seven months, following a revised 99.6 in March, while remaining broadly in line with normal conditions. Business confidence stayed stable, with most sectors at typical levels, while retail trade remained above normal, supported by sharply higher price plans as fewer grocery firms expected price cuts. Manufacturing sentiment was steady, backed by stronger domestic orders, while construction eased to normal levels despite continued optimism over future activity and the one-year outlook. Services confidence improved slightly on firmer assessments of recent conditions. In contrast, consumer sentiment weakened further and stayed below normal, weighed by more pessimistic views on Sweden’s economy, household finances, and major purchases. Across the business sector, aggregate price plans rose and pointed more strongly than usual toward higher selling prices, particularly in manufacturing and retail.

Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator edged up to 99.9 in March 2026 from a revised 99.7 in February, still pointing to sentiment in line with normal conditions. Business confidence remained broadly stable, with all sectors at typical levels except construction, where sentiment strengthened further to above normal, supported by more optimistic employment plans. Manufacturing sentiment also improved, mainly driven by stronger production expectations. In contrast, retail trade weakened sharply, reflecting downgraded sales expectations and a softer view of recent activity, while confidence in the services sector also declined. Consumer sentiment remained below normal, as more pessimistic expectations for the Swedish economy and household finances, along with caution toward major purchases, continued to weigh. Firms expect to raise selling prices at a normal pace, though retail pricing plans remain subdued due to expected price cuts following the VAT reduction on food.