Sweden Q4 GDP Growth Revised Higher

The Swedish economy contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, confirming preliminary estimates and exceeding market expectations of a 0.1% fall. This followed a revised 0.8% expansion in the previous quarter and marked the first contraction in a year. Government spending declined (-2.1% vs 2.7% in Q4), while gross fixed capital formation also dropped (-2.3% vs 4.5%), largely due to lower investment in buildings and constructions. Net trade also weighed on GDP, as imports (2.5% vs 0.2%) rose more than exports (2.2% vs -0.8%). Meanwhile, household consumption increased (0.6% vs 0.6%), driven by spending on transport and housing. Changes in inventories contributed positively, with an increase in industrial stockpiles. On an annual basis, GDP rose by 2%, revised up from an initial estimate of 1.6% but falling short of market forecasts of a 2.3% increase. The yearly growth matched the pace recorded in the previous quarter.

The Swedish economy contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to March 2026, missing expectations of a 0.1% expansion and reversing a 0.5% growth in the previous period. This marks the first economic contraction in a year, weighed down by weaker activity in January and February. However, activity increased in March and is now back at a level similar to that seen at the end of last year, according to Neda Shahbazi, economist at Statistics Sweden. On an annual basis, GDP expanded by 1.6%, the softest growth in a year and below both market expectations and the previous quarter’s 2.1% increase.

The Swedish economy grew 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, exceeding initial estimates of 0.2%, but slowing from a downwardly revised 0.8% growth in the previous period. Net trade weighed on GDP, as exports fell 1.2% (vs 1.1% in Q3), driven by weak goods exports, while imports remained flat (0.0% vs 0.1%). Changes in inventories also subtracted 0.5 percentage points from GDP, with a decline in industrial inventories contributing the most. Household consumption was unchanged at 0.9%. Meanwhile, government spending accelerated to 2.3% (vs 0.2%), supported by higher central government consumption, alongside fixed investments, which rose 2.9% (vs 0.8%), mainly due to machinery, equipment, and weapon systems. On a yearly basis, GDP expanded 2.1%, slowing from 2.6% in Q3 but above the flash estimate of 1.8%. For the full year 2025, the Swedish economy grew 1.5%.