Swedish Economy Expands 0.2% in Q4

The Swedish economy grew 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, exceeding initial estimates of 0.2%, but slowing from a downwardly revised 0.8% growth in the previous period. Net trade weighed on GDP, as exports fell 1.2% (vs 1.1% in Q3), driven by weak goods exports, while imports remained flat (0.0% vs 0.1%). Changes in inventories also subtracted 0.5 percentage points from GDP, with a decline in industrial inventories contributing the most. Household consumption was unchanged at 0.9%. Meanwhile, government spending accelerated to 2.3% (vs 0.2%), supported by higher central government consumption, alongside fixed investments, which rose 2.9% (vs 0.8%), mainly due to machinery, equipment, and weapon systems. On a yearly basis, GDP expanded 2.1%, slowing from 2.6% in Q3 but above the flash estimate of 1.8%. For the full year 2025, the Swedish economy grew 1.5%.

The Swedish economy advanced 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2025, slowing from a 1.1% growth in the third quarter and coming in below market forecasts of a 0.6% expansion, preliminary data showed. Mattias Kain Wyatt, an economist at Statistics Sweden, said that the growth period observed since the second quarter largely continued through the remainder of 2025, albeit at a more modest pace. He added that figures for all four quarters showed a first preliminary estimate of full year GDP growth at 1.4% in 2025. On an annual basis, GDP rose 1.8%, easing from a 2.6% increase in the previous period and falling short of market expectations for a 2.2% growth.

The Swedish economy expanded 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2025, confirming the preliminary estimate, following an upwardly revised 0.8% growth in the second quarter. This was the strongest growth since the first quarter of 2024, driven by increases in household consumption (0.8% vs 0.4% in Q2) and government spending (0.3% vs 0.2%). Net trade also contributed to the economic upturn, as export growth (1.8% vs 1.3%) outpaced that of imports (0.8% vs 2.9%). Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation continued to rise, albeit at a slightly slower rate (1.9% vs 2.0%). On an annual basis, GDP increased 2.6%, revised up from the initial estimate of 2.4%, after an upwardly revised 1.9% growth in the previous quarter.