Sweden Business Confidence Wanes But Still Elevated

Sweden’s business confidence barometer eased to 106.4 in January 2026 from a 3-1/2-year high of 107.4 in December, ending a six-month sequence of improvements while continuing to indicate elevated sentiment. Confidence fell noticeably in construction (97.6 vs 99.9 in November), explained by more pessimistic employment plans, while the other sectors only saw small decreases. The confidence indicator for the trade sector fell slightly to 109.6 from 110.2 but is still the highest in the survey. Sentiment in manufacturing (103.6 vs 103.8) remains stronger than normal but was dampened by a more pessimistic assessment of the size of the order book. Confidence among service providers declined (105.3 vs 106.1) mainly due to a less optimistic outlook for demand for firms’ services over the coming three months.

Sweden’s business confidence barometer strengthened to 107.4 in December 2025 from a downwardly revised 105.5 in the previous month. This marked the sixth consecutive month of increase and the highest reading since June 2022, driven by stronger sentiment across all sectors. However, companies continue to report weak demand (-24 vs -26 in November), with trade the only sector where demand is in line with its historical average. Employment levels in the business sector have remained broadly unchanged over the past three months (-3 vs -4), consistent with historical norms, although firms expect to expand their workforce somewhat more than usual in the period ahead (7 vs 6). Meanwhile, businesses continue to expect above-normal increases in sales prices over the next three months (15 vs 14), with these expectations largely unchanged since June 2025.

Sweden’s business confidence barometer rose to 105.8 in November 2025 from an upwardly revised 104.5 in the previous month. This marked the highest reading since July 2022, driven mainly by stronger sentiment in the construction and service sectors. Companies’ assessments of demand (-25 vs -27 in October) improved across all sectors, though they remain below normal levels, with the exception of trade, where the outlook for sales is in line with the norm. Meanwhile, employment slightly declined over the past three months (-4 vs -5), but firms anticipate workforce growth in the coming quarter (7 vs 3), particularly in construction. Expectations for sales prices are also projected to rise more than usual over the next three months (14 vs 14).