Sweden Business Confidence Wanes But Still Elevated

Sweden’s business confidence barometer fell to 102.3 in March 2026 from a downwardly revised 104 in the previous month. This marked the lowest reading since September last year, though still pointing to a broadly neutral business climate. Firms’ assessment of demand (-24 vs -25 in February) remained steady but slightly weaker than normal overall, with trade standing out as more stable. Employment (-7 vs -6) declined across all sectors, although hiring plans (4 vs 5) suggest a modest pickup in staffing over the next three months. Price expectations (13 vs 12) remained broadly in line with normal levels, but the trade sector showed softer pricing power, led by grocery retailers where price cuts are expected, partly reflecting the upcoming VAT reduction on food. Meanwhile, investment plans were mixed, with manufacturing seen holding steady this year while services showed a more optimistic outlook.

Sweden’s business confidence barometer fell for the second consecutive month to 104.7 in February 2026 from a slightly downwardly revised 106.3 in the previous month, but remained above the 100 level, indicating stronger-than-normal sentiment. Still, the decline was mainly driven by softer confidence in the manufacturing sector. Companies’ assessment of overall demand was largely unchanged from January (at -25) and remained weaker than usual, though trade stood out, with sales conditions seen at normal levels. Employment fell more than typically seen over the past three months (-6 vs -7 in January), yet firms expect hiring to pick up moderately in the quarter ahead (5 vs 6), particularly in construction. Meanwhile, most businesses anticipate raising selling prices in the next three months (12 vs 14), except for retailers, which have sharply scaled back their pricing expectations.

Sweden’s business confidence barometer eased to 106.4 in January 2026 from a 3-1/2-year high of 107.4 in December, ending a six-month sequence of improvements while continuing to indicate elevated sentiment. Confidence fell noticeably in construction (97.6 vs 99.9 in November), explained by more pessimistic employment plans, while the other sectors only saw small decreases. The confidence indicator for the trade sector fell slightly to 109.6 from 110.2 but is still the highest in the survey. Sentiment in manufacturing (103.6 vs 103.8) remains stronger than normal but was dampened by a more pessimistic assessment of the size of the order book. Confidence among service providers declined (105.3 vs 106.1) mainly due to a less optimistic outlook for demand for firms’ services over the coming three months.