Portugal's retail trade growth accelerated to 5.2 percent year-on-year in October 2018 from a downwardly revised 1.1 percent in the previous month, as sales of food, beverages and tobacco rose at a faster pace (4.7 percent vs 2.6 percent in September) and those of non-food products rebounded sharply (5.6 percent vs -0.1 percent). On a monthly basis, retail trade jumped 2.3 percent in October, reversing a 1.9 percent decline in September. Retail Sales YoY in Portugal averaged 1.22 percent from 1996 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 18.70 percent in March of 1996 and a record low of -11.20 percent in October of 2011.
Retail Sales YoY in Portugal is expected to be 3.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Portugal to stand at 2.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Portugal Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.