This page has economic forecasts for Portugal including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Portugal economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 6.70 6.9 7.2 6.4 5.6 6 percent
Inflation Rate 1.00 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -1203.00 -1430 -800 -940 -1180 -1260 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 125.70 123 119 119 119 115 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 1.15
1.15 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.1
Stock Market 4903.59
points
5263 5213 5163 5114 4922
Government Bond 10Y 1.98
percent
1.93 1.99 2.05 2.11 2.38
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30
percent
0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.10
percent
2.2 2 2.1 1.9 1.7
GDP 217.57
USD Billion
225 232 232 232 240
GDP Constant Prices 46008.20
EUR Million
46212 46323 46598 46882 47656
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 8050.90
EUR Million
7956 8086 8220 8204 8204
GDP per capita 23116.58
USD
23700 24500 24500 24500 25100
GDP per capita PPP 27936.90
USD
28500 29100 29100 29100 29600
GDP From Agriculture 816.80
EUR Million
840 840 834 832 866
GDP From Construction 1629.70
EUR Million
1666 1670 1664 1661 1718
GDP From Manufacturing 5525.80
EUR Million
5762 5680 5642 5631 5942
GDP From Services 8763.20
EUR Million
8747 8823 8947 8930 9020
GDP From Transport 3172.40
EUR Million
3199 3109 3239 3233 3299
GDP From Utilities 1178.80
EUR Million
1227 1238 1204 1201 1265
Gross National Product 50587.13
EUR Million
50102 48317 51649 51548 51667
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.70
percent
6.9 7.2 6.4 5.6 6
Employed Persons 4821.90
Thousand
4890 4910 4920 4940 4990
Unemployed Persons 340.10
Thousand
320 300 285 275 260
Part Time Employment 505.00
Thousand
560 570 575 580 600
Full Time Employment 4397.70
Thousand
4380 4400 4420 4440 4510
Employment Rate 55.40
percent
54.8 54.9 55 55.2 55.9
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.40
percent
59.8 59.9 60 60 60.1
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.10
percent
3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.2
Youth Unemployment Rate 19.60
percent
19.5 19.2 18.8 18.4 16.5
Labour Costs 103.20
Index Points
107 102 97.4 98.5 108
Job Vacancies 12064.00
10185 16100 14300 12300 10412
Wages 1148.29
EUR/Month
1250 1280 1290 1320 1410
Wages in Manufacturing 103.36
Index Points
145 109 119 108 157
Wage Growth 3.50
percent
4.5 3.2 2.5 2.3 2.6
Minimum Wages 676.67
EUR/Month
677 700 700 700 720
Population 10.29
Million
10.29 10.28 10.28 10.28 10.28
Retirement Age Women 66.33
66.33 66.42 66.42 66.42 66.5
Retirement Age Men 66.33
66.33 66.42 66.42 66.42 66.5
Unemployment Change 788.00
-3700 -12100 -20500 -6600 -3200
Wages Low Skilled 659.00
EUR/Month
650 700 700 700 750
Wages High Skilled 1430.00
EUR/Month
1450 1500 1500 1500 1650
Productivity 101.80
Index points
103 99.7 104 110 104
Living Wage Family 990.00
EUR/Month
890 1150 1150 1150 1205
Living Wage Individual 670.00
EUR/Month
650 700 700 700 850
Employment Change -0.30
percent
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.00
percent
1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10
percent
0.3 0.5 -0.2 0.6 0.4
Harmonised Consumer Prices 104.49
Index Points
104 104 106 107 108
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.37
Index Points
105 105 106 106 109
Core Consumer Prices 104.31
Index Points
104 105 106 106 108
Core Inflation Rate 0.45
percent
1.1 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8
Producer Prices 104.80
Index Points
108 110 106 107 119
Producer Prices Change 4.70
percent
2.5 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.4
CPI Housing Utilities 108.65
Index Points
108 109 110 110 112
CPI Transportation 102.30
Index Points
101 101 103 104 105
Food Inflation 0.30
percent
1.5 1.9 2 1.9 2
GDP Deflator 1.00
percent
1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.2
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.32
percent
-0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.07 0.43
Money Supply M0 27937.00
EUR Million
30200 30900 31600 32200 34500
Money Supply M1 126422.00
EUR Million
156200 159700 165100 184100 244400
Money Supply M2 216447.00
EUR Million
251500 256100 261200 268800 293300
Foreign Exchange Reserves 20755.43
EUR Million
25620 20821 20821 20821 28220
Banks Balance Sheet 370807.00
EUR Million
395100 405100 408100 411200 429200
Loans to Private Sector 71876.00
EUR Million
81400 85900 88440 89950 98200
Private Debt to GDP 257.50
percent
252 248 248 248 244
Loan Growth 0.10
percent
0.9 1 1.5 1.7 2
Central Bank Balance Sheet 108865.00
EUR Million
119500 122500 125200 128500 151250
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1203.00
EUR Million
-1430 -800 -940 -1180 -1260
Exports 4728.70
EUR Million
4320 5680 5250 5070 4850
Imports 5931.64
EUR Million
5750 6480 6190 6250 6110
Current Account 524.74
EUR Million
-160 -120 51 551 -90
Current Account to GDP 0.50
percent
0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
External Debt 411679.63
EUR Million
412300 414100 415900 416800 423300
Capital Flows 1247.67
EUR Million
304 480 -280 320 287
Foreign Direct Investment 1357.33
EUR Million
450 340 450 360 120
Remittances 300.08
EUR Million
396 285 307 295 402
Tourism Revenues 2196.02
EUR Million
1020 1000 1410 1950 1400
Gold Reserves 382.50
Tonnes
383 383 383 383 383
Terrorism Index 0.00
0 0 0 0 0
Tourist Arrivals 4451477.00
1774000 2990000 4722000 4750000 2153000
Weapons Sales 56.00
USD Million
60 80 80 80 50
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 125.70
percent
123 119 119 119 115
Government Budget -3.00
percent of GDP
-1.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7
Government Budget Value -2744.00
EUR Million
-3160 -1670 -3900 -2810 -2310
Government Spending 8429.30
EUR Million
8588 8584 8606 8589 8857
Government Spending to GDP 45.90
percent
45.1 44.7 44.7 44.7 44.2
Government Revenues 30462.00
EUR Million
45410 10050 22050 35400 47250
Government Debt 246767.00
EUR Million
254000 257400 259100 261900 271000
Fiscal Expenditure 33206.00
EUR Million
48570 11720 25950 38210 49560
Military Expenditure 3662.30
USD Million
4329 3484 3494 3505 4334
Asylum Applications 60.00
persons
45 50 51 60 35
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 2.40
Index Points
2.2 1.9 2.2 2.5 1.5
Industrial Production -0.10
percent
2.8 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.4
Industrial Production Mom -2.80
percent
0.5 2.9 -0.2 -2.6 0.5
Manufacturing Production -0.40
percent
3.6 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.3
Capacity Utilization 81.16
percent
80.9 81 81.5 81.4 81.4
Changes in Inventories 307.87
EUR Million
56 97.06 150 45 88
Car Registrations 13956.00
21550 28600 25150 16200 25420
Leading Economic Index 1.90
percent
1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4
Internet Speed 12894.80
KBps
12940 12932 12939 12958 12988
IP Addresses 3662187.00
IP
3702855 3706932 3710223 3713630 3742609
Mining Production 22.10
percent
6.9 2.5 1.7 2.2 2
Competitiveness Index 70.20
Points
70.7 70.7 70.7 70.7 73.2
Competitiveness Rank 34.00
34 34 34 34 34
Ease of Doing Business 34.00
28 27 27 27 26
Electricity Production 4522.00
Gigawatt-hour
4620 4950 4700 4750 4720
Corruption Index 63.00
Points
63 63 63 63 63
Corruption Rank 29.00
29 29 29 29 29
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -1.10
Index Points
0.5 1.1 1.9 1.5 1.1
Retail Sales MoM -1.70
percent
0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 1.30
percent
3.8 3.2 3 2.8 2.2
Consumer Spending 29076.20
EUR Million
29465 29655 29687 29629 30385
Personal Savings 4.40
percent
4.5 4.2 4.4 4.9 5.8
Consumer Credit 115232.00
EUR Million
115400 115500 115600 115700 116900
Personal Spending 1.40
percent
1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 2
Bank Lending Rate 2.74
percent
2.75 2.75 2.75 3 3.5
Disposable Personal Income 40921.50
EUR Million
42960 43250 43860 44150 46120
Gasoline Prices 1.84
USD/Liter
1.81 1.78 1.75 1.71 1.59
Households Debt To GDP 68.70
percent of GDP
65.7 61.1 61.1 61.1 57.8
Households Debt To Income 100.95
percent
99.8 95.1 95.1 95.1 91.9
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Construction Output 4.30
percent
3.6 3.2 3 2.6 2
Housing Index 128.49
Index points
136 138 140 142 149
Building Permits 1622.00
1400 1690 1720 1970 1620
Home Ownership Rate 74.70
percent
74.2 74 74 74 73.8
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.00
percent
48 48 48 48 48
Sales Tax Rate 23.00
percent
23 23 23 23 23
Social Security Rate 34.75
percent
34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.75
percent
23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 56.68
mm
103 94.51 69.64 69.64 69.39
Temperature 10.55
celsius
11.86 9.66 17.82 15.48 15.05



Portugal - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook