Portugal - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Portugal including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Portugal economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 8.10 8.4 7.9 7.7 8 7 percent
Inflation Rate 1.00 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.9 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -1381.58 -1064 -1000 -1220 -1392 -1230 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 130.40 126 126 126 126 121 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 1.24
1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.07
Stock Market 5505.43
points
5492 5339 5191 5047 4028
Government Bond 10Y 2.01
percent
2.16 2.33 2.51 2.7 3.65
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70
percent
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.40
percent
2 1.8 1.6 1.8 0.8
GDP 204.84
USD Billion
210 210 210 210 225
GDP Constant Prices 45131.10
EUR Million
46000 46200 46500 46800 48900
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7645.10
EUR Million
7800 7940 7970 8200 8900
GDP per capita 22347.03
USD
22900 22900 22900 22900 23600
GDP per capita PPP 27006.87
USD
27900 27900 27900 27900 28600
GDP From Agriculture 765.50
EUR Million
690 685 705 920 945
GDP From Construction 1562.70
EUR Million
1579 1581 1593 1740 1930
GDP From Manufacturing 5597.00
EUR Million
5585 5569 5545 5610 5850
GDP From Services 8467.20
EUR Million
8503 8512 8512 8670 8850
GDP From Transport 3195.00
EUR Million
3236 3281 3299 3340 3540
GDP From Utilities 1185.90
EUR Million
1205 1207 1207 1520 1770
Gross National Product 49187.73
EUR Million
49700 50100 50600 51200 54100
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.10
percent
8.4 7.9 7.7 8 7
Employed Persons 4748.70
Thousand
4780 4820 4850 4890 4990
Unemployed Persons 409.00
Thousand
405 402 400 398 392
Part Time Employment 531.70
Thousand
520 540 550 560 600
Full Time Employment 4273.20
Thousand
4320 4340 4360 4380 4510
Employment Rate 54.30
percent
54.5 54.6 54.7 54.8 55.1
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.00
percent
59.5 59.6 59.7 59.8 60.1
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.20
percent
4 4 3.8 3.8 3.2
Youth Unemployment Rate 22.10
percent
21.8 21.6 21.4 21.2 19.9
Labour Costs 95.40
Index Points
93.4 98.8 95.22 102 103
Job Vacancies 6984.00
16200 14150 12100 10185 10412
Wages 1144.61
EUR/Month
1190 1220 1240 1250 1410
Wages in Manufacturing 140.15
Index Points
102 111 99.5 125 132
Wage Growth 5.40
percent
4.5 4.1 3.8 2.5 2.7
Minimum Wages 676.67
EUR/Month
677 677 677 677 720
Population 10.31
Million
10.27 10.27 10.27 10.27 10.21
Retirement Age Women 66.33
66.33 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.5
Retirement Age Men 66.33
66.33 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.5
Unemployment Change -854.00
-16600 -24400 -7500 -3700 -3200
Wages Low Skilled 615.00
EUR/Month
650 650 650 650 750
Wages High Skilled 1360.00
EUR/Month
1450 1450 1450 1450 1650
Productivity 109.50
Index points
99.6 104 110 103 104
Living Wage Family 870.00
EUR/Month
890 890 890 890 1205
Living Wage Individual 595.00
EUR/Month
650 650 650 650 850
Employment Change 0.60
percent
0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.00
percent
1.5 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom -1.00
percent
0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.15
Index Points
104 106 108 110 121
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.93
Index Points
105 107 109 111 120
Core Consumer Prices 101.61
Index Points
105 107 109 111 122
Core Inflation Rate 0.94
percent
1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 2
Producer Prices 101.10
Index Points
103 105 106 108 119
Producer Prices Change 2.40
percent
2.2 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.4
CPI Housing Utilities 107.28
Index Points
108 110 112 114 126
CPI Transportation 99.76
Index Points
101 103 105 107 125
Food Inflation 1.45
percent
2 1.8 2 1.9 2.5
GDP Deflator 1.40
percent
1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.2
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.33
percent
-0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5
Money Supply M0 27365.00
EUR Million
28400 28900 29500 30200 34500
Money Supply M1 116616.00
EUR Million
134000 139000 145100 156200 244400
Money Supply M2 206695.00
EUR Million
228700 236200 242400 251500 293300
Foreign Exchange Reserves 20857.80
EUR Million
20612 20228 19914 25620 28220
Banks Balance Sheet 373920.00
EUR Million
380700 384800 387800 395100 429200
Loans to Private Sector 74277.00
EUR Million
74650 76850 78100 81400 98200
Private Debt to GDP 269.70
percent
263 263 263 263 249
Loan Growth -1.10
percent
-0.4 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4
Central Bank Balance Sheet 111257.00
EUR Million
112150 114100 116200 119500 151250
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1381.58
EUR Million
-1064 -1000 -1220 -1392 -1230
Exports 4060.67
EUR Million
4278 4498 4740 4265 4675
Imports 5442.25
EUR Million
5342 5498 5960 5657 5905
Current Account 208.73
EUR Million
290 -190 150 -160 -90
Current Account to GDP 0.80
percent
-0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6
External Debt 406677.51
EUR Million
407600 408100 410300 412300 423300
Capital Flows 620.19
EUR Million
520 -320 270 304 287
Foreign Direct Investment 246.39
EUR Million
304 398 320 450 120
Remittances 283.36
EUR Million
280 302 290 396 402
Tourism Revenues 1004.94
EUR Million
950 1320 1840 1020 1400
Gold Reserves 382.51
Tonnes
383 383 383 383 383
Terrorism Index 0.00
0 0 0 0 0
Tourist Arrivals 1729049.00
2920000 4451000 4660000 1774000 2153000
Weapons Sales 169.00
USD Million
100 100 100 100 50
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 130.40
percent
126 126 126 126 121
Government Budget -2.00
percent of GDP
-1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -0.9
Government Budget Value -4722.00
EUR Million
-1660 -3920 -2970 -3160 -2310
Government Spending 8394.40
EUR Million
8450 8490 8520 8580 8785
Government Spending to GDP 45.10
percent
44.8 44.8 44.8 44.8 44.7
Government Revenues 40749.00
EUR Million
9960 21130 33750 45410 47250
Government Debt 249110.00
EUR Million
249800 252600 253200 254000 271000
Fiscal Expenditure 45472.00
EUR Million
11620 25050 36720 48570 49560
Military Expenditure 3750.50
USD Million
3569 3613 3656 4329 4334
Asylum Applications 75.00
persons
52 58 80 45 35
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 1.90
Index Points
2 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.1
Industrial Production 1.30
percent
2.4 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.4
Industrial Production Mom -0.40
percent
1.2 -0.3 0.5 -0.8 0.5
Manufacturing Production 2.80
percent
5.1 4.5 4.4 3.6 2.3
Capacity Utilization 81.70
percent
80.7 80.8 80.8 80.9 81.4
Changes in Inventories 166.87
EUR Million
-120 210 42 56 88
Car Registrations 14603.00
28300 24520 14950 21550 25420
Leading Economic Index 2.60
percent
3.2 3.6 3.4 3.3 2.7
Internet Speed 12894.80
KBps
12226 11932 11706 11430 9034
IP Addresses 3662187.00
IP
3613163 3592740 3569371 3548632 3337527
Mining Production -12.70
percent
-6.2 -2 0.5 1 2
Competitiveness Index 4.57
Points
4.57 4.57 4.57 4.57 4.74
Competitiveness Rank 42.00
42 42 42 42 40
Ease of Doing Business 29.00
28 28 28 28 26
Electricity Production 4561.00
Gigawatt-hour
4940 4650 4720 4620 4720
Corruption Index 62.00
Points
64 64 64 64 66
Corruption Rank 29.00
27 27 27 27 25
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 1.30
Index Points
1.5 1.7 2.1 1.9 0.1
Retail Sales MoM 0.30
percent
1.1 0.7 -0.6 0.2 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 5.70
percent
4.9 4.2 4.4 3.8 2.2
Consumer Spending 28710.00
EUR Million
29650 29850 30460 30990 34630
Personal Savings 4.40
percent
3.6 3.6 3.8 4.1 5.8
Consumer Credit 114534.00
EUR Million
114900 115100 115200 115400 116900
Personal Spending 2.10
percent
2.9 3 3 2.9 2.6
Bank Lending Rate 2.87
percent
2.5 2.5 3 3 3.5
Disposable Personal Income 39768.80
EUR Million
41290 41770 41920 42960 46120
Gasoline Prices 1.95
USD/Liter
1.95 1.9 1.9 1.85 1.75
Households Debt To Gdp 70.80
percent of GDP
69.5 68.8 65.7 64.8 57.8
Households Debt To Income 104.29
percent
99.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 91.9
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Construction Output 2.60
percent
4.6 3.8 3.7 3.6 2
Housing Index 119.60
Index points
121 123 125 127 140
Building Permits 1255.00
1400 1440 1650 1360 1620
Home Ownership Rate 75.20
percent
74.2 74.2 74.2 74.2 73.8
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.00
percent
48 48 48 48 48
Sales Tax Rate 23.00
percent
23 23 23 23 23
Social Security Rate 34.75
percent
34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.75
percent
23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 56.68
mm
94.32 52.28 22.3 103 69.39
Temperature 10.55
celsius
9.64 16.26 21.14 11.86 15.05