This page has economic forecasts for Portugal including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Portugal economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 6.70 6.9 7.2 6.4 5.6 6 percent
Inflation Rate 1.00 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -1203.00 -1430 -800 -940 -1180 -1260 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 125.70 123 119 119 119 115 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 1.15
 1.15 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.1
Stock Market 4903.59
points		 5263 5213 5163 5114 4922
Government Bond 10Y 1.98
percent		 1.93 1.99 2.05 2.11 2.38
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30
percent		 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.10
percent		 2.2 2 2.1 1.9 1.7
GDP 217.57
USD Billion		 225 232 232 232 240
GDP Constant Prices 46008.20
EUR Million		 46212 46323 46598 46882 47656
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 8050.90
EUR Million		 7956 8086 8220 8204 8204
GDP per capita 23116.58
USD		 23700 24500 24500 24500 25100
GDP per capita PPP 27936.90
USD		 28500 29100 29100 29100 29600
GDP From Agriculture 816.80
EUR Million		 840 840 834 832 866
GDP From Construction 1629.70
EUR Million		 1666 1670 1664 1661 1718
GDP From Manufacturing 5525.80
EUR Million		 5762 5680 5642 5631 5942
GDP From Services 8763.20
EUR Million		 8747 8823 8947 8930 9020
GDP From Transport 3172.40
EUR Million		 3199 3109 3239 3233 3299
GDP From Utilities 1178.80
EUR Million		 1227 1238 1204 1201 1265
Gross National Product 50587.13
EUR Million		 50102 48317 51649 51548 51667
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.70
percent		 6.9 7.2 6.4 5.6 6
Employed Persons 4821.90
Thousand 		4890 4910 4920 4940 4990
Unemployed Persons 340.10
Thousand 		320 300 285 275 260
Part Time Employment 505.00
Thousand		 560 570 575 580 600
Full Time Employment 4397.70
Thousand		 4380 4400 4420 4440 4510
Employment Rate 55.40
percent		 54.8 54.9 55 55.2 55.9
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.40
percent		 59.8 59.9 60 60 60.1
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.10
percent		 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.2
Youth Unemployment Rate 19.60
percent		 19.5 19.2 18.8 18.4 16.5
Labour Costs 103.20
Index Points		 107 102 97.4 98.5 108
Job Vacancies 12064.00
 10185 16100 14300 12300 10412
Wages 1148.29
EUR/Month		 1250 1280 1290 1320 1410
Wages in Manufacturing 103.36
Index Points		 145 109 119 108 157
Wage Growth 3.50
percent		 4.5 3.2 2.5 2.3 2.6
Minimum Wages 676.67
EUR/Month		 677 700 700 700 720
Population 10.29
Million		 10.29 10.28 10.28 10.28 10.28
Retirement Age Women 66.33
 66.33 66.42 66.42 66.42 66.5
Retirement Age Men 66.33
 66.33 66.42 66.42 66.42 66.5
Unemployment Change 788.00
 -3700 -12100 -20500 -6600 -3200
Wages Low Skilled 659.00
EUR/Month		 650 700 700 700 750
Wages High Skilled 1430.00
EUR/Month		 1450 1500 1500 1500 1650
Productivity 101.80
Index points		 103 99.7 104 110 104
Living Wage Family 990.00
EUR/Month		 890 1150 1150 1150 1205
Living Wage Individual 670.00
EUR/Month		 650 700 700 700 850
Employment Change -0.30
percent		 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.00
percent		 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10
percent		 0.3 0.5 -0.2 0.6 0.4
Harmonised Consumer Prices 104.49
Index Points		 104 104 106 107 108
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.37
Index Points		 105 105 106 106 109
Core Consumer Prices 104.31
Index Points		 104 105 106 106 108
Core Inflation Rate 0.45
percent		 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8
Producer Prices 104.80
Index Points		 108 110 106 107 119
Producer Prices Change 4.70
percent		 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.4
CPI Housing Utilities 108.65
Index Points		 108 109 110 110 112
CPI Transportation 102.30
Index Points		 101 101 103 104 105
Food Inflation 0.30
percent		 1.5 1.9 2 1.9 2
GDP Deflator 1.00
percent		 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.2
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent		 0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.32
percent		 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.07 0.43
Money Supply M0 27937.00
EUR Million		 30200 30900 31600 32200 34500
Money Supply M1 126422.00
EUR Million		 156200 159700 165100 184100 244400
Money Supply M2 216447.00
EUR Million		 251500 256100 261200 268800 293300
Foreign Exchange Reserves 20755.43
EUR Million		 25620 20821 20821 20821 28220
Banks Balance Sheet 370807.00
EUR Million		 395100 405100 408100 411200 429200
Loans to Private Sector 71876.00
EUR Million		 81400 85900 88440 89950 98200
Private Debt to GDP 257.50
percent		 252 248 248 248 244
Loan Growth 0.10
percent		 0.9 1 1.5 1.7 2
Central Bank Balance Sheet 108865.00
EUR Million		 119500 122500 125200 128500 151250
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1203.00
EUR Million		 -1430 -800 -940 -1180 -1260
Exports 4728.70
EUR Million		 4320 5680 5250 5070 4850
Imports 5931.64
EUR Million		 5750 6480 6190 6250 6110
Current Account 524.74
EUR Million		 -160 -120 51 551 -90
Current Account to GDP 0.50
percent		 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
External Debt 411679.63
EUR Million		 412300 414100 415900 416800 423300
Capital Flows 1247.67
EUR Million		 304 480 -280 320 287
Foreign Direct Investment 1357.33
EUR Million		 450 340 450 360 120
Remittances 300.08
EUR Million		 396 285 307 295 402
Tourism Revenues 2196.02
EUR Million		 1020 1000 1410 1950 1400
Gold Reserves 382.50
Tonnes		 383 383 383 383 383
Terrorism Index 0.00
 0 0 0 0 0
Tourist Arrivals 4451477.00
 1774000 2990000 4722000 4750000 2153000
Weapons Sales 56.00
USD Million		 60 80 80 80 50
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 125.70
percent		 123 119 119 119 115
Government Budget -3.00
percent of GDP		 -1.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7
Government Budget Value -2744.00
EUR Million		 -3160 -1670 -3900 -2810 -2310
Government Spending 8429.30
EUR Million		 8588 8584 8606 8589 8857
Government Spending to GDP 45.90
percent		 45.1 44.7 44.7 44.7 44.2
Government Revenues 30462.00
EUR Million		 45410 10050 22050 35400 47250
Government Debt 246767.00
EUR Million		 254000 257400 259100 261900 271000
Fiscal Expenditure 33206.00
EUR Million		 48570 11720 25950 38210 49560
Military Expenditure 3662.30
USD Million		 4329 3484 3494 3505 4334
Asylum Applications 60.00
persons		 45 50 51 60 35
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 2.40
Index Points		 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.5 1.5
Industrial Production -0.10
percent		 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.4
Industrial Production Mom -2.80
percent		 0.5 2.9 -0.2 -2.6 0.5
Manufacturing Production -0.40
percent		 3.6 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.3
Capacity Utilization 81.16
percent		 80.9 81 81.5 81.4 81.4
Changes in Inventories 307.87
EUR Million		 56 97.06 150 45 88
Car Registrations 13956.00
 21550 28600 25150 16200 25420
Leading Economic Index 1.90
percent		 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4
Internet Speed 12894.80
KBps		 12940 12932 12939 12958 12988
IP Addresses 3662187.00
IP		 3702855 3706932 3710223 3713630 3742609
Mining Production 22.10
percent		 6.9 2.5 1.7 2.2 2
Competitiveness Index 70.20
Points		 70.7 70.7 70.7 70.7 73.2
Competitiveness Rank 34.00
 34 34 34 34 34
Ease of Doing Business 34.00
 28 27 27 27 26
Electricity Production 4522.00
Gigawatt-hour		 4620 4950 4700 4750 4720
Corruption Index 63.00
Points		 63 63 63 63 63
Corruption Rank 29.00
 29 29 29 29 29
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -1.10
Index Points		 0.5 1.1 1.9 1.5 1.1
Retail Sales MoM -1.70
percent		 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 1.30
percent		 3.8 3.2 3 2.8 2.2
Consumer Spending 29076.20
EUR Million		 29465 29655 29687 29629 30385
Personal Savings 4.40
percent		 4.5 4.2 4.4 4.9 5.8
Consumer Credit 115232.00
EUR Million		 115400 115500 115600 115700 116900
Personal Spending 1.40
percent		 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 2
Bank Lending Rate 2.74
percent		 2.75 2.75 2.75 3 3.5
Disposable Personal Income 40921.50
EUR Million		 42960 43250 43860 44150 46120
Gasoline Prices 1.84
USD/Liter		 1.81 1.78 1.75 1.71 1.59
Households Debt To GDP 68.70
percent of GDP		 65.7 61.1 61.1 61.1 57.8
Households Debt To Income 100.95
percent		 99.8 95.1 95.1 95.1 91.9
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Construction Output 4.30
percent		 3.6 3.2 3 2.6 2
Housing Index 128.49
Index points		 136 138 140 142 149
Building Permits 1622.00
 1400 1690 1720 1970 1620
Home Ownership Rate 74.70
percent		 74.2 74 74 74 73.8
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00
percent		 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.00
percent		 48 48 48 48 48
Sales Tax Rate 23.00
percent		 23 23 23 23 23
Social Security Rate 34.75
percent		 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.75
percent		 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent		 11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 56.68
mm		 103 94.51 69.64 69.64 69.39
Temperature 10.55
celsius		 11.86 9.66 17.82 15.48 15.05



Portugal - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook