Portugal | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Portugal including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Portugal economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 10.10 9.8 9.6 9.6 9.7 8.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1238.53 -982 -840 -1420 -1064 -1230 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 130.40 128 128 128 126 121 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.13 1.1 1.09 1.08 1.07 0.89 [+]
Stock Market 5192.16 5260 5210 5050 5100 4250 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.07 2.89 2.92 2.95 2.97 3.43 percent [+]
2 Year Note Yield 0.24 0.59 0.59 0.6 0.6 0.7 [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80 3.2 3.4 3 2.9 2.8 percent [+]
GDP 199.10 202 204 206 208 242 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 44315.40 43700 43800 43900 45156 44900 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7340.00 6810 6870 6920 7705 7860 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 21969.10 22600 22600 22600 22900 23600 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 26548.62 27400 27500 27600 27800 28600 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 805.70 915 917 919 835 945 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1631.80 1520 1610 1690 1687 1930 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 5373.90 5420 5480 5520 5397 5850 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 8380.10 8370 8450 8520 8511 8850 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 3006.80 3150 3220 3290 3031 3540 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 1166.20 1270 1340 1410 1137 1770 EUR Million [+]
Gross National Product 45951.05 47700 48100 48400 47148 50600 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.10 9.8 9.6 9.6 9.7 8.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4648.90 4568 4585 4525 4646 4642 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 505.00 496 488 480 472 436 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 550.70 564 573 586 551 608 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 4107.50 4055 4089 4025 4190 4185 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 52.60 52.6 52.7 52.9 53.57 54 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.50 58.2 58.1 58 58.58 57.7 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 5.90 6 5.9 5.8 5.57 5.2 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 23.70 24.8 24.3 23.9 21.6 21.7 percent [+]
Labour Costs 93.10 98.2 91.8 99.8 94 100 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 17074.00 16120 10050 10111 16268 10412 [+]
Wages 1130.37 1150 1150 1190 1190 1410 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 100.94 104 93.6 123 98.2 125 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 1.80 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.7 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 649.83 650 650 650 670 700 EUR/Month [+]
Population 10.34 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.27 10.21 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.25 66.25 66.25 66.25 66.33 66.5 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.25 66.25 66.25 66.25 66.33 66.5 [+]
Living Wage Family 764.90 850 850 850 890 1205 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 626.40 690 690 690 750 910 EUR/Month [+]
Productivity 98.50 104 112 103 99.6 104 Index points [+]
Unemployment Change -18687.00 -11908 -4180 -6566 -6650 -6463 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 663.00 686 686 690 690 790 EUR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 1310.00 1420 1420 1480 1480 1750 EUR/Month [+]
Employment Change 1.00 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.08 103 105 107 109 125 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.15 103 105 107 109 125 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 103.62 104 106 108 110 126 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.20 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 2 percent [+]
Producer Prices 100.30 104 106 108 110 125 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.10 5.1 5.7 4.9 3.4 2.2 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 105.63 106 106 106 107 110 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 97.00 99 101 103 105 122 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.10 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.5 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 0.60 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 -0.32 -0.29 -0.24 -0.18 0.45 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 26314.00 26900 27300 27800 28400 34500 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 108721.00 117100 122500 128200 134000 244400 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 198399.00 197100 200500 204100 208757 273300 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 24803.35 24220 24520 24820 24674 28220 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 376214.00 355600 349400 345100 370771 425200 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 74715.00 74591 73469 73389 73650 11238 EUR Million [+]
Loan Growth -1.90 -1 -0.6 -0.2 -1.85 1.1 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 271.50 271 268 267 266 249 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 107690.00 111200 115650 119700 121150 171250 EUR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1238.53 -982 -840 -1420 -1064 -1230 EUR Million [+]
Exports 4161.32 4487 4585 4095 4278 4675 EUR Million [+]
Imports 5399.86 5469 5425 5515 5342 5905 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 180.00 -210 150 -180 290 -90 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 0.80 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 percent [+]
External Debt 402624.84 402500 405400 406300 407600 423300 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 62.34 -256 -45 256 520 287 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 757.12 422 -152 598 304 120 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 300.30 308 267 392 280 402 EUR Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1250.68 1250 1420 950 820 1250 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 382.51 383 383 383 383 383 Tonnes [+]
Tourist Arrivals 3727405.00 4155000 4491000 1676000 2920000 2153000 [+]
Terrorism Index 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 [+]
Weapons Sales 169.00 8 8 6 7 9 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 130.40 128 128 128 126 121 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.00 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.6 -0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -3280.00 -4250 -4150 -3710 -1660 -2310 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending 8336.50 8376 8379 8383 8387 8485 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 45.10 45 45 45 44.8 44.7 percent [+]
Government Revenues 12664.00 20890 32220 44680 9960 47250 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt 241061.00 246800 247500 249000 249800 271000 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 15944.00 25140 36370 48390 11620 49560 EUR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3750.50 4314 4314 4314 3803 4334 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 115.00 60 65 55 52 35 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 2.00 2.1 2.4 2.3 2 1.1 [+]
Industrial Production -1.20 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.20 1.8 -0.1 -0.7 1.2 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.20 1.8 2.2 2.1 2 2.3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.59 80.4 80.5 80.6 80.7 81.4 percent [+]
New Orders 112.60 108 118 108 118 108 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories -249.65 -15.84 -0.37 83.34 64.17 75.89 EUR Million [+]
Car Registrations 23652.00 23980 14520 17880 28300 25420 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 3.00 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.4 2.7 percent [+]
Mining Production -8.50 -10 -6 -4 0.2 1 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.56 4.74 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 46.00 46 46 46 45 43 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 25.00 24 24 24 23 21 [+]
Electricity Production 4278.00 4682 4020 4560 4940 4720 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 62.00 63 63 63 64 66 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 29.00 28 28 28 27 25 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 0.10 -0.4 -1.2 -3.6 -3.4 -8.2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.50 1.7 -1.2 -1.6 -2.2 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.90 4.2 3.4 3.6 2.9 2.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 28639.00 28890 29220 29540 29650 34630 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 3.80 3.6 3.2 3.4 3.6 5.8 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 116454.00 116000 115400 114800 114900 116900 EUR Million [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 72.80 72.3 71.4 70.6 69.5 57.1 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 105.67 104 104 104 103 96.4 percent [+]
Personal Spending 2.70 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.6 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.26 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.8 percent [+]
Disposable Personal Income 38681.70 39490 40050 40890 41290 46120 EUR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.66 1.59 1.61 1.62 1.6 1.65 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output 0.20 2.6 4.1 4.8 4.6 2 percent [+]
Housing Index 111.89 113 115 117 119 136 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 74.80 74.4 74.4 74.4 74.2 73.8 percent [+]
Construction Orders 63.00 12.5 10.6 8.8 5.1 2.2 percent [+]
Building Permits 1717.00 1410 1570 1250 1400 1620 [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00 21 21 21 21 21 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 56.50 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 23.00 23 23 23 23 23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]