Portugal - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Portugal including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Portugal economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 6.70 6.4 6.9 7.2 6.4 6 percent
Inflation Rate 1.20 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -1167.78 -1270 -1430 -800 -940 -1260 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 125.70 123 123 119 119 115 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.17
 1.16 1.15 1.15 1.14 1.12
Stock Market 5373.06
points		 5445 5394 5344 5293 5097
Government Bond 10Y 1.89
percent		 1.93 2 2.06 2.13 2.42
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50
percent		 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.30
percent		 2.4 2.2 2 2.1 1.7
GDP 217.57
USD Billion		 225 225 232 232 240
GDP Constant Prices 45639.30
EUR Million		 45421 46212 46323 46598 47891
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 8050.90
EUR Million		 7817 7956 8086 8220 8245
GDP per capita 23116.58
USD		 23700 23700 24500 24500 25100
GDP per capita PPP 27936.90
USD		 28500 28500 29100 29100 29600
GDP From Agriculture 816.80
EUR Million		 827 840 840 834 870
GDP From Construction 1629.70
EUR Million		 1583 1666 1670 1664 1727
GDP From Manufacturing 5525.80
EUR Million		 5690 5762 5680 5642 5971
GDP From Services 8763.20
EUR Million		 8566 8747 8823 8947 9065
GDP From Transport 3172.40
EUR Million		 3202 3199 3109 3239 3315
GDP From Utilities 1178.80
EUR Million		 1193 1227 1238 1204 1271
Gross National Product 47369.40
EUR Million		 49852 50102 48317 48364 51922
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.70
percent		 6.4 6.9 7.2 6.4 6
Employed Persons 4843.20
Thousand 		4850 4890 4910 4920 4990
Unemployed Persons 337.20
Thousand 		340 320 300 285 260
Part Time Employment 507.30
Thousand		 550 560 570 575 600
Full Time Employment 4366.80
Thousand		 4360 4380 4400 4420 4510
Employment Rate 55.10
percent		 54.7 54.8 54.9 55 55.9
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.00
percent		 59.7 59.8 59.9 60 60.1
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.70
percent		 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.2
Youth Unemployment Rate 20.30
percent		 19.9 19.5 19.2 18.8 16.5
Labour Costs 103.20
Index Points		 96.7 107 102 97.4 108
Job Vacancies 10411.00
 12100 10185 16100 14300 10412
Wages 1148.29
EUR/Month		 1240 1250 1280 1290 1410
Wages in Manufacturing 130.68
Index Points		 105 145 109 119 157
Wage Growth 5.90
percent		 5.1 4.5 3.2 2.5 2.6
Minimum Wages 676.67
EUR/Month		 677 677 700 700 720
Population 10.29
Million		 10.29 10.29 10.28 10.28 10.28
Retirement Age Women 66.33
 66.33 66.33 66.42 66.42 66.5
Retirement Age Men 66.33
 66.33 66.33 66.42 66.42 66.5
Unemployment Change 7560.00
 -7500 -3700 -12100 -20500 -3200
Wages Low Skilled 615.00
EUR/Month		 650 650 700 700 750
Wages High Skilled 1360.00
EUR/Month		 1450 1450 1500 1500 1650
Productivity 101.80
Index points		 110 103 99.7 104 104
Living Wage Family 870.00
EUR/Month		 890 890 1150 1150 1205
Living Wage Individual 595.00
EUR/Month		 650 650 700 700 850
Employment Change -0.30
percent		 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.20
percent		 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom -0.30
percent		 0.7 0.3 0.5 -0.2 0.4
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.46
Index Points		 105 104 104 106 108
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.30
Index Points		 105 105 105 106 109
Core Consumer Prices 102.98
Index Points		 104 104 105 106 108
Core Inflation Rate 0.61
percent		 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.8
Producer Prices 104.44
Index Points		 104 103 104 106 108
Producer Prices Change 4.60
percent		 4.1 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.4
CPI Housing Utilities 108.19
Index Points		 107 108 109 110 112
CPI Transportation 102.95
Index Points		 99.04 101 101 103 105
Food Inflation 0.90
percent		 1.1 1.5 1.9 2 2
GDP Deflator 1.00
percent		 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.2
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent		 0 0 0 0 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.32
percent		 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 0.43
Money Supply M0 27805.00
EUR Million		 29500 30200 30900 31600 34500
Money Supply M1 126105.00
EUR Million		 145100 156200 159700 165100 244400
Money Supply M2 216220.00
EUR Million		 242400 251500 256100 261200 293300
Foreign Exchange Reserves 19170.43
EUR Million		 20166 25620 20262 20264 28220
Banks Balance Sheet 373833.00
EUR Million		 387800 395100 405100 408100 429200
Loans to Private Sector 72236.00
EUR Million		 78100 81400 85900 88440 98200
Private Debt to GDP 257.50
percent		 252 252 248 248 244
Loan Growth -0.10
percent		 0.5 0.9 1 1.5 2
Central Bank Balance Sheet 107913.00
EUR Million		 116200 119500 122500 125200 151250
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1167.78
EUR Million		 -1270 -1430 -800 -940 -1260
Exports 5271.21
EUR Million		 4850 4320 5680 5250 4850
Imports 6438.99
EUR Million		 6120 5750 6480 6190 6110
Current Account 770.32
EUR Million		 451 -160 -120 51 -90
Current Account to GDP 0.50
percent		 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5
External Debt 411679.63
EUR Million		 410300 412300 414100 415900 423300
Capital Flows 1189.38
EUR Million		 270 304 480 -280 287
Foreign Direct Investment 346.83
EUR Million		 320 450 340 450 120
Remittances 336.37
EUR Million		 290 396 285 307 402
Tourism Revenues 2011.34
EUR Million		 1840 1020 1000 1410 1400
Gold Reserves 382.50
Tonnes		 383 383 383 383 383
Terrorism Index 0.00
 0 0 0 0 0
Tourist Arrivals 4669325.00
 4660000 1774000 2990000 4722000 2153000
Weapons Sales 56.00
USD Million		 60 60 80 80 50
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 125.70
percent		 123 123 119 119 115
Government Budget -3.00
percent of GDP		 -1.2 -1.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7
Government Budget Value -4644.00
EUR Million		 -2970 -3160 -1670 -3900 -2310
Government Spending 8429.30
EUR Million		 8497 8588 8584 8606 8900
Government Spending to GDP 45.90
percent		 45.1 45.1 44.7 44.7 44.2
Government Revenues 20672.00
EUR Million		 33750 45410 10050 22050 47250
Government Debt 245829.00
EUR Million		 253200 254000 257400 259100 271000
Fiscal Expenditure 25317.00
EUR Million		 36720 48570 11720 25950 49560
Military Expenditure 3662.30
USD Million		 3525 4329 3484 3494 4334
Asylum Applications 60.00
persons		 80 45 50 51 35
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 2.50
Index Points		 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.2 1.5
Industrial Production -1.70
percent		 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4
Industrial Production Mom 0.70
percent		 -3.8 0.5 2.9 -0.2 0.5
Manufacturing Production -1.70
percent		 4.4 3.6 2.5 2.2 2.3
Capacity Utilization 82.56
percent		 80.8 80.9 81 81.5 81.4
Changes in Inventories 307.87
EUR Million		 42 56 97.06 150 88
Car Registrations 26162.00
 14950 21550 28600 25150 25420
Leading Economic Index 1.80
percent		 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.4
Internet Speed 12894.80
KBps		 12907 12940 12932 12939 12988
IP Addresses 3662187.00
IP		 3699162 3702855 3706932 3710223 3742609
Mining Production 16.60
percent		 0.5 1 1.5 1.7 2
Competitiveness Index 4.57
Points		 4.57 4.57 4.65 4.65 4.74
Competitiveness Rank 42.00
 42 42 41 41 40
Ease of Doing Business 29.00
 28 28 27 27 26
Electricity Production 4734.00
Gigawatt-hour		 4720 4620 4950 4700 4720
Corruption Index 63.00
Points		 64 64 65 65 66
Corruption Rank 29.00
 28 28 27 27 26
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -0.50
Index Points		 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.1
Retail Sales MoM -1.00
percent		 0.9 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 2.20
percent		 4.4 3.8 3.2 3 2.2
Consumer Spending 29076.20
EUR Million		 29066 29465 29655 29687 30535
Personal Savings 5.10
percent		 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.4 5.8
Consumer Credit 114979.00
EUR Million		 115200 115400 115500 115600 116900
Personal Spending 1.80
percent		 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 2
Bank Lending Rate 2.68
percent		 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.68 3.43
Disposable Personal Income 41689.80
EUR Million		 41920 42960 43250 43860 46120
Gasoline Prices 1.92
USD/Liter		 1.96 1.85 1.74 1.65 1.3
Households Debt To Gdp 69.40
percent of GDP		 65.7 64.8 63.8 63.4 57.8
Households Debt To Income 100.95
percent		 99.8 99.8 95.1 95.1 91.9
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 3.20
percent		 3.7 3.6 3.2 3 2
Housing Index 125.58
Index points		 125 127 129 130 140
Building Permits 1776.00
 1750 1400 1690 1720 1620
Home Ownership Rate 74.70
percent		 74.2 74.2 74 74 73.8
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00
percent		 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.00
percent		 48 48 48 48 48
Sales Tax Rate 23.00
percent		 23 23 23 23 23
Social Security Rate 34.75
percent		 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.75
percent		 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent		 11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 56.68
mm		 22.3 103 94.51 69.64 69.39
Temperature 10.55
celsius		 21.14 11.86 9.66 17.82 15.05