Markets Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Currency 1.12 1.12 1.11 1.11 1.1 1.1
Stock Market (points) 4636.33 4467 4378 4291 4205 4034
Government Bond 10Y (%) 0.59 0.62 0.68 0.75 0.82 0.97

Overview Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -3.80 -11.4 4.6 2 2.3 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -2.30 -11.9 -7.7 -5.6 -2.1 5.9
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.70 8.5 9.6 10 9.5 8
Inflation Rate (%) -0.70 -1.1 -0.3 0.1 0.5 1.1
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.40 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4
Interest Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Balance of Trade (EUR Million) -1585.92 -1720 -1700 -1460 -1600 -1440
Current Account (EUR Million) -406.60 -40 190 -90 -90 -120
Current Account to GDP (%) -0.10 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -1 -1
Government Debt to GDP (%) 117.70 132 132 132 124 124
Government Budget (% of GDP) 0.20 -7 -7 -7 -2.6 -2.6
Business Confidence (points) -3.20 -3 -2.1 -1.6 -1.2 0.1
Consumer Confidence (points) -29.10 -34 -32 -26 -19 -16
Retail Sales MoM (%) -17.50 -0.7 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -0.7
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 48.00 48 48 48 48 48

GDP Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -3.80 -11.4 4.6 2 2.3 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -2.30 -11.9 -7.7 -5.6 -2.1 5.9
GDP (USD Billion) 245.00 251 251 251 259 259
GDP Constant Prices (EUR Million) 49031.70 48487 49348 48161 49947 51003
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EUR Million) 9136.00 8779 8851 8372 8682 8866
GDP per capita (USD) 23737.70 23037 25100 25100 25700 25700
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 28687.50 27840 29600 29600 27840 28336
GDP From Agriculture (EUR Million) 1025.80 971 992 965 1001 1022
GDP From Construction (EUR Million) 1960.20 1837 1869 1799 1865 1905
GDP From Manufacturing (EUR Million) 6020.60 5974 6000 5833 6049 6177
GDP From Services (EUR Million) 8437.60 8480 8640 8456 8770 8955
GDP From Transport (EUR Million) 3668.00 3626 3703 3571 3704 3782
GDP From Utilities (EUR Million) 1547.40 1534 1564 1550 1608 1642
Gross National Product (EUR Million) 54639.88 50759 52433 51580 53492 54623

Labour Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.70 8.5 9.6 10 9.5 8
Employed Persons (Thousand ) 4811.60 4960 4960 4990 4990 5110
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 353.80 291 291 275 275 275
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 485.10 585 585 600 600 615
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 4380.80 4470 4470 4510 4510 4590
Employment Rate (%) 54.70 55.6 55.9 55.7 55.7 55.7
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 58.60 59.4 59.6 59.4 59.4 59.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 2.80 4.6 5.7 6.1 5.6 4.8
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 19.50 21.3 22.4 22.8 22.3 21.5
Labour Costs (points) 110.60 107 100 113 113 116
Job Vacancies 3142.00 16250 16250 10412 10412 10450
Wages (EUR/Month) 1188.06 1219 1218 1214 1214 1241
Wage Growth (%) 1.70 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2
Wages in Manufacturing (points) 110.31 127 110 153 111 156
Minimum Wages (EUR/Month) 740.83 741 741 741 741 780
Population (Million) 10.28 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.23 10.23
Retirement Age Women 66.42 66.42 66.42 66.42 66.5 66.5
Retirement Age Men 66.42 66.42 66.42 66.42 66.5 66.5
Living Wage Family (EUR/Month) 990.00 1016 1015 1012 1012 1034
Living Wage Individual (EUR/Month) 670.00 687 687 685 685 700
Productivity (points) 103.80 100 100 104 104 104
Wages Low Skilled (EUR/Month) 659.00 676 675 674 674 688
Wages High Skilled (EUR/Month) 1430.00 1467 1466 1461 1461 1494
Unemployment Change 28199.00 18800 4800 2600 -1600 -1800
Employment Change (%) 0.00 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3

Prices Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Inflation Rate (%) -0.70 -1.1 -0.3 0.1 0.5 1.1
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.40 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 104.37 104 104 104 105 105
Harmonised Consumer Prices (points) 104.46 104 104 104 104 105
Core Consumer Prices (points) 104.71 106 105 105 103 107
Core Inflation Rate (%) -0.10 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.7
Producer Prices (points) 98.20 105 104 108 101 110
Producer Prices Change (%) -5.50 1 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.6
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 107.69 107 108 109 110 110
CPI Transportation (points) 99.42 101 102 103 100 104
Food Inflation (%) 3.82 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.8
GDP Deflator (%) 1.60 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7

Money Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Interest Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Interbank Rate (%) -0.33 -0.42 -0.42 -0.42 -0.42 -0.42
Money Supply M2 (EUR Million) 243544.10 251100 255400 263300 263300 275200
Banks Balance Sheet (EUR Million) 418685.90 398200 406300 411200 411200 419100
Loans to Private Sector (EUR Million) 67497.00 67469 67344 63364 65017 67103
Loan Growth (%) 0.30 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7
Private Debt to GDP (%) 248.20 244 244 244 244 240
Central Bank Balance Sheet (EUR Million) 117222.00 127400 136400 144240 144240 144240

Trade Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Balance of Trade (EUR Million) -1585.92 -1720 -1700 -1460 -1600 -1440
Current Account (EUR Million) -406.60 -40 190 -90 -90 -120
Current Account to GDP (%) -0.10 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -1 -1
Imports (EUR Million) 6095.95 6820 6980 6310 7290 6590
Exports (EUR Million) 4510.03 5100 5280 4650 5690 4890
External Debt (EUR Million) 410719.00 419100 419100 423300 423300 426300
Capital Flows (EUR Million) -507.91 510 510 287 287 320
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR Million) 460.44 550 450 120 120 180
Remittances (EUR Million) 269.27 295 295 402 402 415
Tourism Revenues (EUR Million) 642.54 1510 2050 1400 1400 1600
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 382.50 383 383 383 383 383
Weapons Sales (USD Million) 3.00 50 50 50 50 50
Tourist Arrivals 1323906.00 3120000 4910000 2153000 2153000 2452000

Government Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 117.70 132 132 132 124 124
Government Budget (% of GDP) 0.20 -7 -7 -7 -2.6 -2.6
Government Budget Value (EUR Million) -1553.00 -6500 -6000 -3310 -10200 -3810
Government Spending (EUR Million) 8370.30 8013 8145 7905 8198 8372
Government Spending to GDP (%) 42.70 48 48 48 46 46
Government Revenues (EUR Million) 11474.00 21700 36200 47250 9700 52120
Government Debt (EUR Million) 249980.00 268500 269100 271000 271000 276000
Fiscal Expenditure (EUR Million) 13027.00 30200 48200 65560 19900 62060
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 3969.00 4334 4334 4334 4334 4334
Asylum Applications (persons) 190.00 70 70 85 85 70

Taxes Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 48.00 48 48 48 48 48
Sales Tax Rate (%) 23.00 23 23 23 23 23
Social Security Rate (%) 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 11.00 11 11 11 11 11

Business Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Business Confidence (points) -3.20 -3 -2.1 -1.6 -1.2 0.1
Industrial Production (%) -25.90 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.6
Industrial Production Mom (%) -18.20 -1.8 -1.2 0.5 0.5 0.4
Manufacturing Production (%) -29.00 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.5
Capacity Utilization (%) 69.92 81 81 81.4 81.4 81.5
Changes in Inventories (EUR Million) -69.05 55 55 88 88 95
Car Registrations 2749.00 29400 16600 22420 22420 25180
Leading Economic Index (%) -2.70 2.1 2 2.4 2.4 2.5
Mining Production (%) -2.90 2 1.7 2 2 1.4
Car Production (Units) 13686.00 24100 26500 21200 21200 20600

Consumer Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) -29.10 -34 -32 -26 -19 -16
Retail Sales MoM (%) -17.50 -0.7 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -0.7
Retail Sales YoY (%) -21.60 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.3
Consumer Spending (EUR Million) 31114.90 30266 31229 30293 31416 32080
Personal Savings (%) 6.20 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.7 7.1
Consumer Credit (EUR Million) 118871.00 111094 115171 112175 116600 118793
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 63.90 57.8 57.8 57.8 57.8 54
Households Debt To Income (%) 92.97 91.9 91.9 91.9 91.9 86
Personal Spending (%) -1.70 1.7 2 1.9 1.9 2.3
Bank Lending Rate (%) 2.44 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.65
Disposable Personal Income (EUR Million) 43878.40 42279 42759 41421 42957 43865
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.46 1.35 1.28 1.22 1.16 1.1

Housing Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Construction Output (%) 1.10 2 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.5
Housing Index (points) 144.10 138 145 149 149 154
Home Ownership Rate (%) 74.50 73.8 73.8 73.8 73.8 73.4
Building Permits 1602.00 1720 1880 1620 1620 1790


This page has economic forecasts for Portugal including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Portugal economy.