Portugal | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Portugal including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Portugal economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 8.50 8.9 9.5 9.1 8.2 7.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.40 1.6 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1536.24 -1420 -1064 -1000 -1166 -1230 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 130.40 128 126 126 126 121 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.18 1.16 1.15 1.13 1.12 0.99 [+]
Stock Market 5383.69 5360 5300 5250 5190 4600 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.88 2.46 2.49 2.51 2.54 2.81 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50 3 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.8 percent [+]
GDP 204.56 206 208 210 200 242 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 44823.10 45900 46000 46200 44977 48900 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7645.10 7720 7800 7940 8095 8900 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 22347.03 22600 22900 22900 22900 23600 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 27006.87 27600 27900 27900 27900 28600 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 765.50 919 690 685 705 945 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1562.70 1690 1579 1581 1593 1930 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 5597.00 5520 5585 5569 5545 5850 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 8467.20 8520 8503 8512 8512 8850 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 3195.00 3290 3236 3281 3299 3540 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 1185.90 1410 1205 1207 1207 1770 EUR Million [+]
Gross National Product 48690.35 48400 48800 49000 47294 51600 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.50 8.9 9.5 9.1 8.2 7.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4712.80 4740 4780 4820 4697 4990 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 441.50 479 472 466 419 445 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 508.00 586 589 594 571 610 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 4295.00 4230 4270 4310 4250 4440 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 54.30 52.9 53 53.1 54.39 54 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.30 58.2 58.1 58 58.99 57.8 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.60 5.8 5.7 5.6 3.14 5.2 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 25.60 23 22.8 22.6 25.1 21.7 percent [+]
Labour Costs 95.40 102 93.4 98.8 95.22 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 15068.00 10110 16200 16150 12134 10412 [+]
Wages 1130.37 1190 1190 1220 1035 1410 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 99.29 123 98.2 105 101 125 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 4.90 2.4 2.3 2.3 1.6 2.7 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 649.83 650 670 670 677 700 EUR/Month [+]
Population 10.31 10.31 10.27 10.27 10.27 10.21 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.25 66.25 66.33 66.33 66 66.5 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.25 66.25 66.33 66.33 66 66.5 [+]
Unemployment Change -7416.00 -3900 -16600 -24400 92.46 -3200 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 615.00 690 690 695 634 790 EUR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 1360.00 1480 1480 1540 1360 1750 EUR/Month [+]
Productivity 109.50 103 99.6 104 109 104 Index points [+]
Living Wage Family 870.00 850 890 890 870 1205 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 595.00 690 750 750 551 910 EUR/Month [+]
Employment Change 0.60 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.40 1.6 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.54 0.4 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.64 108 110 112 103 125 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.38 108 110 112 104 125 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 103.84 109 111 113 104 126 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.34 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 2 percent [+]
Producer Prices 100.59 106 108 110 99.95 125 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.70 3.9 3.4 3.3 1.78 2.2 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 105.81 111 113 115 106 129 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 97.58 103 105 107 97.06 122 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.32 0.8 1.5 1.8 2 2.5 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1.40 1.7 1.8 1.8 2 2.6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 -0.24 -0.18 -0.06 -0.17 0.45 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 26816.00 27800 28400 28900 26773 34500 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 113674.00 128200 134000 139000 113415 244400 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 203914.00 217100 228700 236200 204005 293300 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 20971.59 24820 20293 19962 19656 28220 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 373050.00 395100 402700 407800 372120 455200 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 74323.00 73389 73650 76850 73513 11238 EUR Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 271.50 267 263 263 250 249 percent [+]
Loan Growth -1.80 -0.4 0.2 0.5 -0.52 1.4 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 109647.00 119700 121150 123100 108403 171250 EUR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1536.24 -1420 -1064 -1000 -1166 -1230 EUR Million [+]
Exports 4844.56 4095 4278 4498 4495 4675 EUR Million [+]
Imports 6380.81 5515 5342 5498 5547 5905 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 217.55 -180 290 -190 -111 -90 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 0.80 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 percent [+]
External Debt 406677.51 406300 407600 408100 412356 423300 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 269.57 256 520 -320 15.68 287 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 271.55 598 304 398 317 120 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 285.46 392 280 302 240 402 EUR Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1668.08 950 820 1310 626 1250 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 382.51 383 383 383 387 383 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 4640945.00 1676000 2920000 4251000 1953000 2153000 [+]
Weapons Sales 169.00 6 7 7 132 9 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 130.40 128 126 126 126 121 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.00 -1.8 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -0.9 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -2939.00 -3710 -1660 -3920 -3601 -2310 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending 8394.40 8383 8387 8392 8519 8485 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 45.10 45 44.8 44.8 46.97 44.7 percent [+]
Government Revenues 33651.00 44680 9960 21130 16145 47250 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt 249030.00 249000 249800 252600 252128 271000 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 33119.00 48390 11620 25050 19367 49560 EUR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3750.50 4314 3697 3694 3691 4334 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 70.00 55 52 58 70.55 35 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 2.10 2.3 2 1.8 2.11 1.1 [+]
Industrial Production 3.50 2.5 2.4 2.6 0.69 2.4 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -2.20 -0.7 1.2 -0.3 0.08 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.40 2.1 2 2.2 0.73 2.3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.77 80.6 80.7 80.8 80.5 81.4 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 166.87 45 -120 210 42 88 EUR Million [+]
Car Registrations 15898.00 17880 28300 24520 16892 25420 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 2.70 4 4.2 4.5 4.4 2.7 percent [+]
Internet Speed 12894.80 12447 12226 11932 11706 9034 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 3662187.00 3626403 3613163 3592740 3569371 3337527 IP [+]
Mining Production -0.90 -4 0.2 0.5 -3.58 1 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.57 4.48 4.56 4.56 4.54 4.74 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 42.00 46 45 45 43 43 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 29.00 24 23 23 32 21 [+]
Electricity Production 4745.00 4560 4940 4650 4025 4720 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 62.00 63 64 64 63 66 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 29.00 28 27 27 28 25 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 2.30 -3.6 -3.4 -2.2 0.18 -8.2 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -2.30 -1.6 -2.2 1.9 0 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.80 3.6 2.9 3.2 2.32 2.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 28710.00 29540 29650 29850 28774 34630 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 3.80 3.4 3.6 3.6 4.9 5.8 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 115106.00 114800 114900 115100 115203 116900 EUR Million [+]
Personal Spending 2.20 2.9 2.9 3 3 2.6 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.07 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.96 3.8 percent [+]
Disposable Personal Income 39554.00 40890 41290 41770 40201 46120 EUR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.84 1.62 1.6 1.58 1.87 1.65 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 70.80 70.6 69.5 68.8 65.37 56.98 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 105.67 104 103 103 94.89 96.4 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Construction Output 3.40 4.8 4.6 3.8 -0.63 2 percent [+]
Housing Index 115.51 117 119 121 114 136 Index points [+]
Building Permits 1575.00 1250 1400 1440 1585 1620 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 74.80 74.4 74.2 74.2 74.67 73.8 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00 21 21 21 21 21 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 56.50 56.5 56.5 56.5 54 56.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 23.00 23 23 23 23 22 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.48 34.75 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.76 23.76 23.79 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 10.99 10.99 11 10.99 11 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Temperature 10.00 11.49 13.9 17.59 15.19 13.47 celsius [+]