Portugal - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Portugal including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Portugal economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 7.90 7.5 7.3 7.6 7.5 6.5 percent
Inflation Rate 0.40 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.9 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -1206.53 -960 -1270 -1430 -800 -1260 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 125.70 123 123 123 119 115 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 1.18
1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.08
Stock Market 5768.25
points
5200 5055 4915 4778 4269
Government Bond 10Y 1.94
percent
1.76 1.9 2.06 2.22 3.01
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.10
percent
2 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7
GDP 204.84
USD Billion
210 210 210 215 225
GDP Constant Prices 45406.70
EUR Million
45058 45315 46065 45268 47550
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7743.70
EUR Million
7808 7798 7891 7706 8145
GDP per capita 22347.03
USD
22900 22900 22900 23300 23600
GDP per capita PPP 27006.87
USD
27900 27900 27900 28300 28600
GDP From Agriculture 820.90
EUR Million
818 825 836 812 863
GDP From Construction 1629.40
EUR Million
1616 1579 1660 1653 1714
GDP From Manufacturing 5682.30
EUR Million
5542 5702 5790 5587 5977
GDP From Services 8556.50
EUR Million
8520 8545 8719 8493 9000
GDP From Transport 3130.40
EUR Million
3119 3194 3190 3133 3293
GDP From Utilities 1200.50
EUR Million
1184 1191 1223 1211 1263
Gross National Product 49006.33
EUR Million
49285 49655 49937 46770 51548
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.90
percent
7.5 7.3 7.6 7.5 6.5
Employed Persons 4774.80
Thousand
4820 4850 4890 4910 4990
Unemployed Persons 390.70
Thousand
380 375 370 368 355
Part Time Employment 516.90
Thousand
540 550 560 570 600
Full Time Employment 4289.80
Thousand
4340 4360 4380 4400 4510
Employment Rate 54.30
percent
54.6 54.7 54.8 54.9 55.9
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.90
percent
59.6 59.7 59.8 59.9 60.1
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.80
percent
3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.2
Youth Unemployment Rate 21.30
percent
21 20.8 20.6 20.2 19
Labour Costs 106.90
Index Points
102 96.7 107 102 108
Job Vacancies 15030.00
14150 12100 10185 16100 10412
Wages 1144.61
EUR/Month
1220 1240 1250 1280 1410
Wages in Manufacturing 104.56
Index Points
115 105 145 109 157
Wage Growth 5.60
percent
4.1 3.8 2.5 2.2 2.7
Minimum Wages 676.67
EUR/Month
677 677 677 700 720
Population 10.31
Million
10.27 10.27 10.27 10.24 10.21
Retirement Age Women 66.33
66.33 66.33 66.33 66.42 66.5
Retirement Age Men 66.33
66.33 66.33 66.33 66.42 66.5
Unemployment Change -11269.00
-24400 -7500 -3700 -12100 -3200
Wages Low Skilled 615.00
EUR/Month
650 650 650 700 750
Wages High Skilled 1360.00
EUR/Month
1450 1450 1450 1500 1650
Productivity 102.80
Index points
104 110 103 99.7 104
Living Wage Family 870.00
EUR/Month
890 890 890 1150 1205
Living Wage Individual 595.00
EUR/Month
650 650 650 700 850
Employment Change 0.70
percent
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 0.40
percent
0.6 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom 0.70
percent
-0.1 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.4
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.00
Index Points
103 104 104 104 108
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.80
Index Points
103 104 105 105 109
Core Consumer Prices 104.04
Index Points
104 104 104 105 108
Core Inflation Rate 0.18
percent
0.5 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.8
Producer Prices 101.60
Index Points
102 102 103 103 108
Producer Prices Change 1.20
percent
1.8 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.4
CPI Housing Utilities 107.47
Index Points
106 107 108 109 112
CPI Transportation 100.14
Index Points
98.05 98.65 101 101 105
Food Inflation 0.90
percent
1.1 1.5 1.7 1.9 2
GDP Deflator 1.60
percent
1.6 1.8 1.8 2 2.2
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.33
percent
-0.33 -0.33 -0.08 -0.08 0.42
Money Supply M0 27217.00
EUR Million
28900 29500 30200 30900 34500
Money Supply M1 118408.00
EUR Million
139000 145100 156200 159700 244400
Money Supply M2 205506.00
EUR Million
236200 242400 251500 256100 293300
Foreign Exchange Reserves 20495.68
EUR Million
24402 25791 25620 25099 28220
Banks Balance Sheet 369271.00
EUR Million
384800 387800 395100 405100 429200
Loans to Private Sector 73642.00
EUR Million
76850 78100 81400 85900 98200
Private Debt to GDP 257.50
percent
252 252 252 248 244
Loan Growth -0.80
percent
-0.2 0.5 0.9 1 2
Central Bank Balance Sheet 112036.00
EUR Million
114100 116200 119500 122500 151250
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1206.53
EUR Million
-960 -1270 -1430 -800 -1260
Exports 4944.44
EUR Million
4990 4850 4320 5680 4850
Imports 6150.97
EUR Million
5950 6120 5750 6480 6110
Current Account 301.28
EUR Million
-25 451 -160 -120 -90
Current Account to GDP 0.50
percent
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5
External Debt 407482.01
EUR Million
408100 410300 412300 414100 423300
Capital Flows 1013.98
EUR Million
-320 270 304 480 287
Foreign Direct Investment -380.76
EUR Million
398 320 450 340 120
Remittances 279.55
EUR Million
302 290 396 285 402
Tourism Revenues 786.88
EUR Million
1320 1840 1020 1000 1400
Gold Reserves 382.50
Tonnes
383 383 383 383 383
Terrorism Index 0.00
0 0 0 0 0
Tourist Arrivals 2918604.00
4451000 4660000 1774000 2990000 2153000
Weapons Sales 56.00
USD Million
100 100 100 80 50
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 125.70
percent
123 123 123 119 115
Government Budget -3.00
percent of GDP
-1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7
Government Budget Value -729.00
EUR Million
-3920 -2970 -3160 -1670 -2310
Government Spending 8422.90
EUR Million
8497 8498 8583 8558 8860
Government Spending to GDP 45.90
percent
45.1 45.1 45.1 44.7 44.2
Government Revenues 7362.00
EUR Million
21130 33750 45410 10050 47250
Government Debt 242620.00
EUR Million
252600 253200 254000 257400 271000
Fiscal Expenditure 8091.00
EUR Million
25050 36720 48570 11720 49560
Military Expenditure 3662.30
USD Million
3614 3690 4329 3728 4334
Asylum Applications 80.00
persons
58 80 45 50 35
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 2.10
Index Points
2.3 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.5
Industrial Production 1.70
percent
2.6 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.4
Industrial Production Mom 3.70
percent
-0.3 -3.8 0.5 2.9 0.5
Manufacturing Production -2.20
percent
4.5 4.4 3.6 2.5 2.3
Capacity Utilization 80.58
percent
80.8 80.8 80.9 81 81.4
Changes in Inventories 90.47
EUR Million
210 42 56 133 88
Car Registrations 21430.00
24520 14950 21550 28600 25420
Leading Economic Index 1.80
percent
2 2.4 2.3 2 2.4
Internet Speed 12894.80
KBps
12873 12907 12940 12932 12988
IP Addresses 3662187.00
IP
3696891 3699162 3702855 3706932 3742609
Mining Production 4.00
percent
-2 0.5 1 1.5 2
Competitiveness Index 4.57
Points
4.57 4.57 4.57 4.65 4.74
Competitiveness Rank 42.00
42 42 42 41 40
Ease of Doing Business 29.00
28 28 28 27 26
Electricity Production 4592.00
Gigawatt-hour
4650 4720 4620 4950 4720
Corruption Index 63.00
Points
64 64 64 65 66
Corruption Rank 29.00
28 28 28 27 26
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 2.40
Index Points
2.1 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.1
Retail Sales MoM 1.90
percent
0.4 0.9 0.4 0.7 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 5.10
percent
4.2 4.4 3.8 3.2 2.2
Consumer Spending 28808.30
EUR Million
28612 28994 29356 28988 30303
Personal Savings 5.40
percent
5.1 4.8 4.5 4.2 5.8
Consumer Credit 114484.00
EUR Million
115100 115200 115400 115500 116900
Personal Spending 1.90
percent
1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 2
Bank Lending Rate 2.81
percent
2.81 2.81 3.06 3.06 3.56
Disposable Personal Income 40597.00
EUR Million
41770 41920 42960 43250 46120
Gasoline Prices 1.90
USD/Liter
1.85 1.74 1.64 1.55 1.08
Households Debt To Gdp 70.20
percent of GDP
68.8 65.7 64.8 63.8 57.8
Households Debt To Income 100.95
percent
99.8 99.8 99.8 95.1 91.9
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Construction Output 2.80
percent
3.8 3.7 3.6 3.2 2
Housing Index 121.06
Index points
123 125 127 129 140
Building Permits 1640.00
1640 1750 1400 1690 1620
Home Ownership Rate 75.20
percent
74.2 74.2 74.2 74 73.8
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.00
percent
48 48 48 48 48
Sales Tax Rate 23.00
percent
23 23 23 23 23
Social Security Rate 34.75
percent
34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.75
percent
23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 56.68
mm
52.28 22.3 103 94.51 69.39
Temperature 10.55
celsius
16.26 21.14 11.86 9.66 15.05