National Bank of Poland Keeps Key Rate on Hold

The National Bank of Poland left its reference policy rate unchanged at 3.75% at its November 2026 meeting, its lowest level since 2022, in line with market expectations and marking the seventh consecutive meeting at this level. The decision came as headline inflation slowed to 3.5% in October, its lowest reading since August, from 4.1% in September, returning to the upper limit of the central bank’s target of 2.5±1% and coming in below market forecasts of 3.7%, as government measures lowered fuel prices at the pump. Still, energy prices continued to rise on higher heating costs, and inflation remains above the 2.5% midpoint of the target. Policymakers stayed cautious, with future decisions depending on inflation and incoming data.

The National Bank of Poland left its reference policy rate unchanged at 3.75% at its October 2026 meeting, in line with expectations, marking the sixth consecutive meeting with rates at their lowest level since 2022. The decision came as government measures aimed at reducing fuel prices at the pump gave policymakers additional room to assess the inflation outlook. Still, headline inflation remains elevated, having accelerated to 4% in September due to higher fuel prices for private vehicles and reaching above the upper limit of the central bank's target of 2.5±1%. Policymakers highlighted uncertainty surrounding inflation and global activity, particularly the Middle East conflict, while other risks also include fiscal policy, energy price regulations, domestic activity and wage dynamics. The NBP also signaled it may intervene in the foreign exchange market.

The National Bank of Poland kept its reference policy unchanged at 3.75% at its September 2026 meeting, in line with market expectations and marking the fifth consecutive meeting with rates held at their lowest level since 2022. Headline inflation accelerate to 3.4%, its highest level since June 2025, and bringing inflation just below the upper limit of the central bank's target of 2.5±1%, as tensions in the Middle East continue to lift energy prices. Fuel price caps also expired, although it could aid the government's budget. Meanwhile, the economy expanded at a faster-than-expected rate of 3.9% in the second quarter of 2026, as investment growth accelerated. Consumption slowed as wage growth decreased. Policymakers remained cautious, citing elevated uncertainty regarding the broader geopolitical situation and its impact on the economy. Future decisions will continue to take into account inflation and changes in economic and wage growth.