National Bank of Poland Leaves Rates Unchanged as Expected

The National Bank of Poland kept its reference policy unchanged at 3.75% at its September 2026 meeting, in line with market expectations and marking the fifth consecutive meeting with rates held at their lowest level since 2022. Headline inflation accelerate to 3.4%, its highest level since June 2025, and bringing inflation just below the upper limit of the central bank's target of 2.5±1%, as tensions in the Middle East continue to lift energy prices. Fuel price caps also expired, although it could aid the government's budget. Meanwhile, the economy expanded at a faster-than-expected rate of 3.9% in the second quarter of 2026, as investment growth accelerated. Consumption slowed as wage growth decreased. Policymakers remained cautious, citing elevated uncertainty regarding the broader geopolitical situation and its impact on the economy. Future decisions will continue to take into account inflation and changes in economic and wage growth.

The National Bank of Poland kept its reference policy rate unchanged at 3.75% at its July 2026 meeting, in line with market expectations. This marked the fourth consecutive meeting with rates held at their lowest level since 2022, as headline inflation slowed to 2.5% in June 2026, its lowest level since before the start of Middle East tensions and at the midpoint of the central bank’s target range. Meanwhile, economic growth moderated in Q1 2026, expanding 3.5% compared with 4.1% in Q4 2025, amid weaker domestic demand and gross fixed investment growth. Looking ahead, inflation projections were revised upwards, expected to be within 2.4-3.3% in 2026 and 1.5-4% in 2027. Meanwhile, GDP growth was revised downwards, expected to be within 3-4% in 2026, slowing to 1.8-3.7% in 2027 and recovering slightly in 2028. Future decisions will depend on inflation and economic activity amid changing geopolitical context, while fiscal policy will be weighed by developments in activity and wage growth.

The National Bank of Poland held its reference policy rate at 3.75% in its June 2026 meeting, maintaining the rate at its lowest level in four years, as widely expected by markets. The hold contrasted with what is likely to be a rate hike by neighboring Eurozone countries next week, consistent with a relatively stable zloty and recent evidence of price stability in the Polish economy. The latest data showed that headline inflation eased to 3.1% in May from 3.2% in the earlier month, well below market expectations of 3.6% to push back against concerns that the surge in energy prices since the war in Iran would trigger an entrenched increase in consumer prices.