Poland Holds Key Rate as Expected

2026-07-08 13:18 By Larissa Caser 1 min. read

The National Bank of Poland kept its reference policy rate unchanged at 3.75% at its July 2026 meeting, in line with market expectations.

This marked the fourth consecutive meeting with rates held at their lowest level since 2022, as headline inflation slowed to 2.5% in June 2026, its lowest level since before the start of Middle East tensions and at the midpoint of the central bank’s target range.

Meanwhile, economic growth moderated in Q1 2026, expanding 3.5% compared with 4.1% in Q4 2025, amid weaker domestic demand and gross fixed investment growth.

Looking ahead, inflation projections were revised upwards, expected to be within 2.4-3.3% in 2026 and 1.5-4% in 2027.

Meanwhile, GDP growth was revised downwards, expected to be within 3-4% in 2026, slowing to 1.8-3.7% in 2027 and recovering slightly in 2028.

Future decisions will depend on inflation and economic activity amid changing geopolitical context, while fiscal policy will be weighed by developments in activity and wage growth.



News Stream
Poland Holds Key Rate as Expected
The National Bank of Poland kept its reference policy rate unchanged at 3.75% at its July 2026 meeting, in line with market expectations. This marked the fourth consecutive meeting with rates held at their lowest level since 2022, as headline inflation slowed to 2.5% in June 2026, its lowest level since before the start of Middle East tensions and at the midpoint of the central bank’s target range. Meanwhile, economic growth moderated in Q1 2026, expanding 3.5% compared with 4.1% in Q4 2025, amid weaker domestic demand and gross fixed investment growth. Looking ahead, inflation projections were revised upwards, expected to be within 2.4-3.3% in 2026 and 1.5-4% in 2027. Meanwhile, GDP growth was revised downwards, expected to be within 3-4% in 2026, slowing to 1.8-3.7% in 2027 and recovering slightly in 2028. Future decisions will depend on inflation and economic activity amid changing geopolitical context, while fiscal policy will be weighed by developments in activity and wage growth.
2026-07-08
National Bank of Poland Holds Rate as Expected
The National Bank of Poland held its reference policy rate at 3.75% in its June 2026 meeting, maintaining the rate at its lowest level in four years, as widely expected by markets. The hold contrasted with what is likely to be a rate hike by neighboring Eurozone countries next week, consistent with a relatively stable zloty and recent evidence of price stability in the Polish economy. The latest data showed that headline inflation eased to 3.1% in May from 3.2% in the earlier month, well below market expectations of 3.6% to push back against concerns that the surge in energy prices since the war in Iran would trigger an entrenched increase in consumer prices.
2026-06-02
National Bank of Poland Keeps Rates Steady as Expected
The National Bank of Poland left its key reference rate unchanged at 3.75% for a second consecutive meeting on May 6, 2026, in line with expectations, citing uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical outlook and its potential impact on the economy. The lombard and deposit rates were also held steady at 4.25% and 3.25%, respectively. The decision comes as inflation in Poland rose for a second consecutive month to 3.2% in April, near the 3.5% upper limit of the central bank’s target range, driven by higher energy prices amid the conflict with Iran. In March, the central bank cut borrowing costs by 25bps, just days after the war in the Middle East began, but has since shifted to a more cautious, wait-and-see stance.
2026-05-06