Peru's economy advanced 2.13 percent year-on-year in September of 2018, slowing further from a downwardly revised 2.22 percent growth in the prior month. Figures came well below market expectations of a 2.9 percent rise. It is the weakest expansion since June, as output grew less in: commerce (1.42% vs 2.52% in August), manufacturing (1.19% vs 1.53%), fisheries (19.68% vs 25.97%), agriculture and livestock (4.40% vs 7.51%), telecommunications (5.74% vs 6.96%), finance & insurance (4.00% vs 6.33%) and restaurants & lodging (4.25% vs 5.07%) . In addition, the construction sector plunged (-2.90% vs -0.09%). Conversely, faster growth was seen in transport and storage (4.49% vs 3.04%) and mining activity rebounded (0.90% vs -3.90%). Considering the first nine months of 2018, economic activity expanded 3.64 percent compared to the same period of 2017. Leading Economic Index in Peru averaged 4.79 percent from 2008 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 14.08 percent in April of 2008 and a record low of -2.86 percent in June of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in Peru is expected to be 3.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Peru to stand at 3.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Peru GDP YoY is projected to trend around 4.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.