Peru's economy advanced 4.18 percent year-on-year in October of 2018, quickening from a 2.13 percent growth in the prior month and well above market expectations of a 2.85 percent rise. It is the strongest expansion since May, with main positive contributions coming from fisheries (22.71% vs 19.68% in September); construction (8.71% vs -2.90%); telecommunications (8.09% vs 5.74%); agriculture and livestock activities (7.20% vs 4.40%); manufacturing (7.14% vs 1.19%); finance & insurance (4.75% vs 4.00%); restaurants & lodging (4.37% vs 4.25%) and trade (2.57% vs 1.42%). Conversely, slower growth was seen in transport & storage (2.49% vs 4.49%) and the mining sector contracted (-2.32% vs 0.90%), amid lower extraction of metals such as silver (-9.1%), lead (-8.4%), zinc (-8.4%); gold (-6.3%) and copper (-4.2%). Considering the first ten months of 2018, economic activity expanded 3.70 percent compared to the same period of 2017. Leading Economic Index in Peru averaged 4.78 percent from 2008 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 14.08 percent in April of 2008 and a record low of -2.86 percent in June of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in Peru is expected to be 4.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Peru to stand at 3.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Peru GDP YoY is projected to trend around 4.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.