Peru | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Peru including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Peru economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.40 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.5 7.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.94 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 3.50 3.5 3.25 3.25 3.25 4 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 433.00 300 500 600 600 660 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 25.60 26 26.1 26.2 26.3 27.1 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 3.24 3.24 3.2 3.17 3.14 2.78 [+]
Stock Market 19760.69 19400 19200 19000 18800 16700 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 4.93 4.93 4.98 5.03 5.08 5.61 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.40 2.7 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 percent [+]
GDP 192.09 196 200 200 200 211 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 128361.02 132799 123637 128443 128465 138990 PEN Million [+]
Gross National Product 293760.41 306289 308416 310543 312670 317787 PEN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 26379.83 28000 32000 35000 26467 27396 PEN Million [+]
GDP per capita 6089.40 6220 6119 6113 6107 6700 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12071.60 12300 12195 12215 12236 15000 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 8630.00 5982 5955 8635 5979 6085 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Construction 6862.00 8000 6600 7150 6882 8120 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 16273.00 16341 15726 16362 15702 16047 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Mining 17481.00 17680 16770 17290 17180 18220 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 6159.00 7100 6100 6000 6520 7100 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Services 13320.00 14500 12957 13500 13700 15300 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Transport 6828.00 6853 6848 6833 6818 6659 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Utilities 2324.00 2370 2380 2400 2430 2610 PEN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.40 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.5 7.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4933.46 4892 4892 4888 4884 4855 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 285.75 445 448 448 355 350 Thousand [+]
Wages 1695.74 1722 1722 1721 1719 1703 PEN/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 850.00 849 848 848 847 841 PEN/Month [+]
Population 31.49 32 32 32.4 32.06 32.77 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 1210.40 1229 1229 1229 1229 1229 PEN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 849.20 832 832 832 832 832 PEN/Month [+]
Employment Rate 64.80 63.9 64 64 63.61 65 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 3870.00 3780 3780 3780 3780 3780 PEN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1350.00 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350 PEN/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.94 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 128.10 128 128 128 128 134 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 129.60 130 130 130 130 130 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.76 3.15 3.2 3.2 2 4.25 percent [+]
Producer Prices 105.66 106 106 106 106 105 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 116.00 119 119 118 117 111 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 115.10 115 114 114 114 110 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.02 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
Food Inflation 3.67 3.79 3.84 3.87 3.9 3.96 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 127.64 129 129 129 129 126 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 112.98 113 113 113 113 112 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 3.50 3.5 3.25 3.25 3.25 4 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 4.38 4.95 5.5 5.5 4.74 4.8 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 42941.00 43032 43012 42992 42972 42793 PEN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 76578.00 76772 76755 76721 76690 76403 PEN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 172945.00 176115 176671 176720 176599 174769 PEN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 64423.00 65593 66093 66242 66238 65306 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 173434.52 171974 171435 170902 170400 166039 PEN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.65 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 433.00 300 500 600 600 660 USD Million [+]
Exports 3923.00 3400 3700 3500 3600 3700 USD Million [+]
Imports 3490.00 3100 3200 2900 3000 3040 USD Million [+]
Current Account -585.00 -190 200 200 -450 -650 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.80 -3.1 -1.6 -1.6 -3.23 -1.2 percent [+]
External Debt 78543.00 80566 81014 81373 81519 80930 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.80 101 100 99.7 99.29 95.94 Index Points [+]
Remittances 765.87 759 738 749 743 743 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 4575753.00 4843900 4908500 4973100 5037700 5514900 [+]
Gold Reserves 34.68 34.66 34.66 34.65 34.65 34.61 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2051.00 1656 1687 1589 1545 1243 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 43.00 42.66 42.87 43.08 43.28 45.11 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 2.98 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 25.60 26 26.1 26.2 26.3 27.1 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.60 -2.6 -2.1 -1.95 -1.81 -1.76 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -2053.24 -3700 -3200 -2800 -1800 -1700 PEN Million [+]
Government Spending 13863.60 15871 13358 14067 14462 14389 PEN Million [+]
Government Revenues 8117.60 8056 7918 7839 7795 7447 PEN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 7591.40 8527 8241 8100 7966 7028 PEN Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2551.30 2695 2720 2744 2769 2856 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 60.00 61.95 61.57 60.58 59.79 59.35 [+]
Industrial Production -6.39 -1.4 0.39 1.53 2.18 3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 32.08 35.26 35.49 35.71 35.94 37.87 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 1638.80 -1032 816 1405 338 -166 PEN Million [+]
Leading Economic Index 2.28 4.4 3.51 3.94 4.26 3.1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 54.00 54 53 53 52 44 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.23 4.19 4.2 4.21 4.21 4.19 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 67.00 70 69 68 68 69 [+]
Copper Production 205998.47 216000 218000 218000 204900 220000 Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 35.00 35 35 35 35 36 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 101.00 106 107 107 107 111 [+]
Steel Production 105.00 100 97.13 94.26 91.64 75.96 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 84.00 84 82 82 81 85 [+]
Consumer Spending 83031.28 81981 81479 81686 81826 81452 PEN Million [+]
Consumer Credit 60511.84 61924 62792 63520 64118 65590 PEN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 309877.50 313792 315578 316602 317096 313128 PEN Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.56 0.64 0.78 0.95 1.13 2.98 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 28 28 28 28 28 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]