Peru - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Peru including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Peru economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 7.30 6.5 7.2 7.3 7 6.7 percent
Inflation Rate 0.48 1.3 1.6 2 2 2.4 percent
Interest Rate 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 4 percent
Balance of Trade 591.20 900 860 900 734 850 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 25.50 24.75 24.75 26 26.8 27.4 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 3.29
3.25 3.28 3.31 3.35 3.48
Stock Market 21094.66
points
20322 19777 19247 18731 16802
Government Bond 10Y 5.35
percent
4.68 4.82 4.97 5.12 5.77
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent
1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.20
percent
3 3.4 3.6 4 4
GDP 192.09
USD Billion
200 200 200 206 211
GDP Constant Prices 134820.72
PEN Million
130286 130593 139674 124949 151362
Gross National Product 293760.41
PEN Million
298167 298754 312249 305511 338377
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 33984.01
PEN Million
26774 30086 35207 25795 38154
GDP per capita 6089.40
USD
6079 6500 6500 6600 6700
GDP per capita PPP 12071.60
USD
12092 12163 13100 14000 15000
Gdp From Agriculture 6058.00
PEN Million
8733 6337 6276 5918 6801
Gdp From Construction 8751.00
PEN Million
7080 7721 9066 6938 9825
Gdp From Manufacturing 16558.00
PEN Million
17233 16716 17154 16974 18590
Gdp From Mining 17438.00
PEN Million
17056 17539 18066 16486 19578
Gdp From Public Administration 7313.00
PEN Million
6184 6808 7576 6211 8210
Gdp From Services 14660.00
PEN Million
13564 13998 15188 12689 16459
Gdp From Transport 7134.00
PEN Million
7117 7067 7391 7362 8009
Gdp From Utilities 2383.00
PEN Million
2378 2374 2469 2467 2675
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.30
percent
6.5 7.2 7.3 7 6.7
Employed Persons 4853.60
Thousand
4859 4853 4854 4854 4854
Unemployed Persons 383.60
Thousand
460 470 475 465 450
Wages 1704.14
PEN/Month
1730 1650 1660 1740 1700
Minimum Wages 930.00
PEN/Month
850 850 850 900 900
Population 31.83
Million
32.4 31.73 31.81 31.89 33.08
Wages High Skilled 4190.00
PEN/Month
4250 4250 4250 4250 4350
Wages Low Skilled 1220.00
PEN/Month
1280 1280 1280 1280 1350
Living Wage Family 1540.00
PEN/Month
1650 1650 1650 1700 1700
Living Wage Individual 895.00
PEN/Month
895 895 895 895 895
Employment Rate 63.60
percent
64 63.13 64.51 64.04 65
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 0.48
percent
1.3 1.6 2 2 2.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 128.36
Index Points
129 130 130 129 136
Core Consumer Prices 131.42
Index Points
133 133 134 134 143
Core Inflation Rate 2.12
percent
3.2 2.29 2.56 2.83 4.25
Producer Prices 106.14
Index Points
106 106 107 106 108
Export Prices 123.89
Index Points
124 123 122 122 118
Import Prices 121.85
Index Points
125 125 124 124 119
Inflation Rate Mom -0.14
percent
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7
Food Inflation -2.23
percent
2.4 2.6 2.6 2.91 2.5
CPI Housing Utilities 132.84
Index Points
126 130 132 135 139
CPI Transportation 113.62
Index Points
114 115 117 116 122
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.75
percent
2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 4
Interbank Rate 3.59
percent
3.66 3.91 3.91 3.91 4.91
Money Supply M0 46059.00
PEN Million
43600 43338 43648 43796 43726
Money Supply M1 85342.00
PEN Million
84843 84798 84752 84707 84204
Money Supply M2 187000.00
PEN Million
188531 179795 171047 167508 185911
Foreign Exchange Reserves 60224.00
USD Million
63079 63230 63276 63322 63324
Loans to Private Sector 177090.35
PEN Million
174932 174215 174000 173947 173934
Deposit Interest Rate 2.65
percent
2.4 2.4 2.4 3.02 2.4
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 591.20
USD Million
900 860 900 734 850
Exports 4104.30
USD Million
4580 5000 5250 4024 5500
Imports 3513.10
USD Million
3680 4140 4350 3289 4650
Current Account -896.00
USD Million
-680 -630 -600 -700 -560
Current Account to GDP -1.30
percent
-1.6 -1.6 -1.74 -3.64 -1.2
External Debt 76889.00
USD Million
75460 74929 74479 74118 71457
Terms of Trade 101.68
Index Points
99.84 99.02 98.21 98.22 99.03
Remittances 791.30
USD Million
870 890 880 771 960
Tourist Arrivals 4575753.00
4617100 4721800 4826500 4885825 5527500
Gold Reserves 34.70
Tonnes
34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7
Terrorism Index 2.54
3.1 3.1 3.1 3.22 3
Foreign Direct Investment 2721.00
USD Million
1476 1476 1476 1476 1476
Crude Oil Production 49.00
BBL/D/1K
44.38 44.38 44.38 44.38 44.38
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 25.50
percent
24.75 24.75 26 26.8 27.4
Government Budget -3.20
percent of GDP
-2.4 -2.43 -2.5 -2.38 -1.76
Government Budget Value 3859.10
PEN Million
-106 -44.32 -186 157 -63.96
Government Spending 19361.53
PEN Million
14072 14333 20059 12517 21737
Government Revenues 13654.10
PEN Million
9572 8141 8960 8504 8664
Fiscal Expenditure 7787.20
PEN Million
9678 8185 9176 8346 8728
Military Expenditure 1945.90
USD Million
2650 2650 2650 2536 2600
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 59.00
Index Points
52 50 51 51 65
Industrial Production 0.42
percent
1.3 -1.18 -0.97 -0.73 -0.79
Capacity Utilization 32.08
percent
33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62
Changes in Inventories -2482.38
PEN Million
-639 -571 -583 -581 -581
Leading Economic Index 3.93
percent
3.6 3.8 2.1 3 3.6
Internet Speed 6231.99
KBps
7202 7341 7544 7776 9627
IP Addresses 1032242.00
IP
1081479 1081171 1093496 1094160 1121103
Steel Production 115.00
Thousand Tonnes
95.8 93.05 90.57 88.28 72.77
Ease of Doing Business 58.00
58 58 58 58 58
Competitiveness Index 4.22
Points
4.22 4.22 4.22 4.22 4.22
Competitiveness Rank 72.00
69 69 69 69 69
Copper Production 200813.36
Tonnes
218000 220000 220000 208824 222000
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
37 37 37 37 37
Corruption Rank 96.00
99 97 96 96 111
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 80.00
Index Points
80 80 81 82 84
Consumer Spending 81644.34
PEN Million
84572 84914 84584 82463 91661
Consumer Credit 64500.33
PEN Million
66282 67717 68967 70048 74412
Private Sector Credit 322383.60
PEN Million
324015 322310 317944 312585 311073
Bank Lending Rate 0.70
percent
0.8 0.9 0.98 1.04 0.57
Gasoline Prices 0.89
USD/Liter
0.85 0.8 0.75 0.71 0.49
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 29.50
percent
29.5 29.5 29.5 30 28
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 151.34
mm
118 77.37 142 180 132
Temperature 20.78
celsius
19.66 19.32 20.31 20.68 20.42