Peru | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Peru including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Peru economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.10 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.60 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.04 3.2 3 2.9 2.8 3.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 65.90 1100 1250 1400 1590 550 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 25.60 25.56 26.19 26.81 26.87 27.3 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 3.25 3.3 3.34 3.43 3.4 3.92 [+]
Stock Market 16076.77 16000 15800 15300 15500 12900 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 5.38 5.46 5.52 5.57 5.63 6.49 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.10 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.10 3.2 3.5 3.7 4 4.1 percent [+]
GDP 189.11 192 192 192 177 211 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 120143.06 126400 126829 131799 121226 130990 PEN Million [+]
Gross National Product 293760.41 298180 302663 307146 310333 392170 PEN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 24815.67 21800 19000 28000 32000 27728 PEN Million [+]
GDP per capita 5934.55 6220 6220 6220 5914 6700 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 11767.52 12300 12300 12300 11956 15000 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 5603.00 6458 5630 6432 5655 6306 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Construction 6551.00 6000 5700 5850 5950 7130 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 15815.00 16417 16085 16585 15911 16534 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Mining 16540.00 17269 17254 17639 16776 17437 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 6038.00 6281 6313 6317 6318 6318 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Services 12152.00 12925 12508 12693 12618 12638 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Transport 6931.00 6880 6939 6941 7076 7218 PEN Million [+]
Gdp From Utilities 2354.00 2325 2332 2376 2374 2417 PEN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.60 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4710.73 4766 4770 4768 4768 4768 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 332.91 445 443 445 448 350 Thousand [+]
Wages 1680.67 1707 1709 1716 1725 1843 PEN/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 850.00 852 860 867 875 955 PEN/Month [+]
Population 31.49 31.32 31.4 31.48 31.48 32.83 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 1210.40 1275 1276 1276 1276 1276 PEN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 849.20 835 833 832 832 831 PEN/Month [+]
Employment Rate 62.10 64.15 64.5 63.9 64 65 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 3870.00 3780 3780 3780 3780 3780 PEN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1350.00 1350 1350 1350 1350 1350 PEN/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.04 3.2 3 2.9 2.8 3.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 127.15 127 127 128 128 134 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 128.97 129 130 131 132 144 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.11 3.85 3.6 3.15 3.2 4.25 percent [+]
Producer Prices 105.49 106 106 106 106 108 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 110.38 109 108 108 108 108 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 116.01 115 114 114 114 114 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.42 0.37 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.5 percent [+]
Food Inflation 3.74 3.78 3.69 3.63 3.6 3.58 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 124.84 125 126 128 129 140 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 112.29 112 112 112 112 112 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.05 5.27 4.95 4.95 5.5 4.8 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 41664.00 41446 41679 41613 41566 41588 PEN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 73864.00 74450 74945 75766 76521 84242 PEN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 167364.00 168339 171139 173834 176501 204496 PEN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 63565.00 63793 64297 64613 64870 66840 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 171085.30 170235 170587 170536 170546 170545 PEN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.29 2.32 2.31 2.3 2.31 2.31 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 65.90 1100 1250 1400 1590 550 USD Million [+]
Exports 3043.60 4400 4450 4470 4490 4580 USD Million [+]
Imports 2977.70 3300 3200 3070 2900 3200 USD Million [+]
Current Account -960.82 -400 -250 -190 200 -650 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.80 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 -1.6 -1.2 percent [+]
External Debt 75045.00 75807 76012 77049 77266 78522 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 95.15 95.24 95.19 95.11 95.07 95.04 Index Points [+]
Remittances 705.92 744 757 763 729 782 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 4575753.00 4663304 4760022 4856740 4925834 5672348 [+]
Gold Reserves 34.68 34.68 34.68 34.68 34.68 34.68 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2051.00 1741 1754 1763 1803 1780 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 41.00 39.79 39.83 39.83 39.83 39.83 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 2.98 3.17 3.09 3.01 3.01 3.11 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 25.60 25.56 26.19 26.81 26.87 27.3 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.60 -2.17 -1.69 -2.6 -1.65 -1.76 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -2185.32 -1485 -1330 -1530 -1604 -1561 PEN Million [+]
Government Spending 12030.23 14412 14667 15872 12579 14410 PEN Million [+]
Government Revenues 7636.00 8386 8654 8728 8699 8694 PEN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 7664.40 7874 7593 7707 7669 7679 PEN Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2551.30 2970 2844 2718 2748 2865 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 54.00 53.87 56.59 56.68 56.13 55.46 [+]
Industrial Production -2.20 -1.1 -1.8 -1.92 -1.9 -1.88 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 32.08 33.63 33.6 33.62 33.61 33.62 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 926.48 2331 -150 -1127 861 -290 PEN Million [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.17 4.1 4.2 4.4 -1.07 3.1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 54.00 55 54 54 53 44 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.23 4.19 4.19 4.19 4.21 4.19 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 67.00 71 71 71 64 63 [+]
Copper Production 189390.07 212690 214900 216000 218000 220000 Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 35.00 35 35 35 35 36 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 101.00 99 104 108 109 120 [+]
Steel Production 100.00 94.72 94.39 93.95 93.86 93.82 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 99.00 98.07 99.78 86.98 100 100 [+]
Consumer Spending 79210.83 81066 82156 80943 80820 81937 PEN Million [+]
Consumer Credit 59427.61 59863 60991 62153 63295 74653 PEN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 305723.10 306659 309432 312206 314902 340310 PEN Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.55 0.55 0.54 0.54 0.53 0.52 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.83 0.83 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 28.58 28.67 28.75 28.94 29.84 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]