Peru - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Peru including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Peru economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.3 percent
Unemployment Rate 6.20 7.2 7.3 7 6.8 6.7 percent
Inflation Rate 1.43 1.6 2 2 2.2 2.4 percent
Interest Rate 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 4 percent
Balance of Trade 458.40 800 850 950 980 800 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 25.50 24.75 24.75 24.3 24.3 24.7 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 3.27
3.32 3.35 3.38 3.41 3.54
Stock Market 20045.54
points
19159 18649 18153 17671 15865
Government Bond 10Y 5.22
percent
5.43 5.62 5.81 6.01 6.88
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50
percent
1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.20
percent
3.9 4 4.2 4 3.8
GDP 211.39
USD Billion
200 200 206 206 211
GDP Constant Prices 127506.00
PEN Million
133315 140214 132861 133801 151654
Gross National Product 293760.41
PEN Million
299489 305511 306098 305511 330439
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 31379.00
PEN Million
30453 35044 32697 27684 37903
GDP per capita 6172.69
USD
6500 6500 6600 6600 6750
GDP per capita PPP 12236.71
USD
12389 12388 14000 14000 15000
Gdp From Agriculture 6013.00
PEN Million
6353 6300 6266 8948 6814
Gdp From Construction 7010.00
PEN Million
7740 9101 7304 7254 9844
Gdp From Manufacturing 16490.00
PEN Million
16758 17220 17183 17657 18625
Gdp From Mining 15940.00
PEN Million
17582 18136 16609 17476 19615
Gdp From Public Administration 6228.00
PEN Million
6825 7606 6490 6337 8226
Gdp From Services 12531.00
PEN Million
14032 15246 13057 13899 16490
Gdp From Transport 7434.00
PEN Million
7085 7419 7746 7292 8025
Gdp From Utilities 2405.00
PEN Million
2380 2478 2506 2437 2681
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.20
percent
7.2 7.3 7 6.8 6.7
Employed Persons 4856.10
Thousand
4800 4900 4850 4870 4950
Unemployed Persons 345.20
Thousand
390 385 380 370 350
Wages 1704.14
PEN/Month
1650 1660 1740 1794 1700
Minimum Wages 930.00
PEN/Month
850 850 900 962 900
Population 31.83
Million
32.07 32.07 32.54 32.54 33.17
Wages High Skilled 4190.00
PEN/Month
4250 4250 4350 4350 4500
Wages Low Skilled 1220.00
PEN/Month
1100 1100 1280 1280 1350
Living Wage Family 1540.00
PEN/Month
1650 1650 1740 1740 1780
Living Wage Individual 895.00
PEN/Month
895 895 950 950 1000
Employment Rate 63.60
percent
63.4 63.48 63.52 63.54 65
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.43
percent
1.6 2 2 2.2 2.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 128.82
Index Points
130 130 131 132 136
Core Consumer Prices 132.17
Index Points
132 132 132 133 134
Core Inflation Rate 2.32
percent
2.18 2.2 2.24 2.27 2.4
Producer Prices 107.18
Index Points
106 107 106 106 108
Export Prices 125.96
Index Points
126 126 126 126 126
Import Prices 125.95
Index Points
128 127 127 127 127
Inflation Rate Mom 0.33
percent
0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4
Food Inflation -0.52
percent
2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.5
CPI Housing Utilities 131.15
Index Points
130 132 135 134 139
CPI Transportation 115.76
Index Points
115 117 116 118 122
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.75
percent
2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 4
Interbank Rate 4.03
percent
4.03 4.03 4.03 4.03 5.28
Money Supply M0 46205.00
PEN Million
46180 46072 46079 46107 46100
Money Supply M1 84673.00
PEN Million
86591 87900 89303 90678 103920
Money Supply M2 186870.00
PEN Million
189849 192854 195839 198804 227450
Foreign Exchange Reserves 59113.00
USD Million
57961 57160 56517 55984 53757
Loans to Private Sector 180825.06
PEN Million
179500 180500 182000 183000 187000
Deposit Interest Rate 2.65
percent
2.65 2.65 2.65 2.65 3.9
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 458.40
USD Million
800 850 950 980 800
Exports 4113.80
USD Million
4500 4600 4550 4630 4800
Imports 3655.40
USD Million
3700 3750 3600 3650 4000
Current Account -1319.48
USD Million
-700 -600 -700 -550 -560
Current Account to GDP -1.30
percent
-1.6 -1.6 -2.8 -2.8 -1.4
External Debt 76531.00
USD Million
77175 77796 78460 79070 84590
Terms of Trade 100.01
Index Points
98.79 99.21 99.33 99.37 99.33
Remittances 745.34
USD Million
890 880 769 806 960
Tourist Arrivals 4575753.00
4721800 4826500 4885825 4945150 5527500
Gold Reserves 34.70
Tonnes
34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7
Terrorism Index 2.54
2.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.4
Foreign Direct Investment 2039.00
USD Million
1622 1826 1828 1763 1769
Crude Oil Production 52.00
BBL/D/1K
50.86 50.85 50.86 50.86 50.86
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 25.50
percent
24.75 24.75 24.3 24.3 24.7
Government Budget -3.20
percent of GDP
-3 -3 -2.8 -2.8 -2.6
Government Budget Value -613.19
PEN Million
2269 2517 2499 2438 2452
Government Spending 15885.00
PEN Million
14499 19778 16552 14554 21392
Government Revenues 9511.40
PEN Million
10688 10979 10879 10825 10837
Fiscal Expenditure 8072.10
PEN Million
8419 8396 8380 8387 8385
Military Expenditure 1945.90
USD Million
2000 2000 1920 1920 1850
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 60.00
Index Points
64 65 63 64 65
Industrial Production 2.38
percent
-1.2 -1.4 0.4 1.2 0.8
Capacity Utilization 32.08
percent
33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62
Changes in Inventories 1433.76
PEN Million
-800 -1422 1080 454 -770
Leading Economic Index 6.43
percent
3.9 4 3.8 4.3 4.5
Internet Speed 6231.99
KBps
7341 7544 7776 7967 9627
IP Addresses 1032242.00
IP
1081171 1093496 1094160 1100554 1121103
Steel Production 105.00
Thousand Tonnes
103 102 102 102 102
Ease of Doing Business 58.00
60 60 63 63 64
Competitiveness Index 4.22
Points
4.22 4.22 4.23 4.23 4.23
Competitiveness Rank 72.00
72 72 74 74 76
Copper Production 200813.36
Tonnes
235000 235000 200000 215000 245000
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
40 40 40 40 38
Corruption Rank 96.00
99 99 99 99 98
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 90.00
Index Points
85 91 100 110 115
Consumer Spending 81724.00
PEN Million
85329 84910 85156 86695 91838
Consumer Credit 66775.38
PEN Million
68645 70486 72312 74119 91172
Private Sector Credit 331224.00
PEN Million
335958 341003 345984 350889 395968
Bank Lending Rate 0.70
percent
0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.95
Gasoline Prices 0.95
USD/Liter
0.9 0.85 0.8 0.76 0.54
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 29.50
percent
29.5 29.5 30 30 28
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 151.34
mm
77.37 142 180 130 132
Temperature 20.78
celsius
19.32 20.31 20.68 20.23 20.42