Peru - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Peru including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Peru economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 7.30 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.7 percent
Inflation Rate 1.25 2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 percent
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3 3 3 4 percent
Balance of Trade 1081.00 950 900 860 900 850 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 25.60 24.12 24.75 25.37 26 27.1 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 3.25
3.25 3.28 3.32 3.35 3.5
Stock Market 20895.48
points
20206 19641 19090 18556 14785
Government Bond 10Y 4.49
percent
4.49 4.62 4.75 4.89 5.47
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30
percent
1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50
percent
3.3 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7
GDP 192.09
USD Billion
200 200 200 200 211
GDP Constant Prices 128410.00
PEN Million
132800 128834 128465 133560 138990
Gross National Product 293760.41
PEN Million
289145 294860 300574 306289 317787
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 29583.43
PEN Million
34000 35000 36000 37000 41500
GDP per capita 6089.40
USD
6018 6054 6089 6500 6700
GDP per capita PPP 12071.60
USD
11989 12050 12112 13100 15000
Gdp From Agriculture 6144.00
PEN Million
5955 8635 5979 6024 6085
Gdp From Construction 7551.00
PEN Million
8100 7700 7900 8050 8150
Gdp From Manufacturing 16237.00
PEN Million
16000 16903 15900 16801 16531
Gdp From Mining 17268.00
PEN Million
17800 18000 18200 18350 18220
Gdp From Public Administration 6694.00
PEN Million
6100 6000 6520 7130 7100
Gdp From Services 13766.00
PEN Million
12724 13500 13700 14700 15300
Gdp From Transport 6915.00
PEN Million
6856 6832 6810 6789 6654
Gdp From Utilities 2337.00
PEN Million
2380 2400 2430 2470 2610
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.30
percent
6.1 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.7
Employed Persons 4853.10
Thousand
4869 4861 4858 4855 4820
Unemployed Persons 382.20
Thousand
360 345 350 340 350
Wages 1649.72
PEN/Month
1692 1712 1721 1725 1709
Minimum Wages 850.00
PEN/Month
850 850 850 850 900
Population 31.49
Million
32 32.4 32.06 32.14 32.77
Wages High Skilled 4190.00
PEN/Month
4042 4059 4076 4093 4007
Wages Low Skilled 1220.00
PEN/Month
1359 1350 1341 1332 1310
Living Wage Family 1540.00
PEN/Month
1540 1540 1540 1540 1540
Living Wage Individual 895.00
PEN/Month
895 895 895 895 895
Employment Rate 64.90
percent
64 64 63.68 63.58 65
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.25
percent
2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7
Consumer Price Index CPI 127.59
Index Points
128 128 128 128 134
Core Consumer Prices 130.06
Index Points
130 131 131 131 131
Core Inflation Rate 2.29
percent
3.2 3.2 2.29 2.36 4.25
Producer Prices 105.74
Index Points
106 106 106 107 108
Export Prices 124.17
Index Points
124 123 123 122 114
Import Prices 118.79
Index Points
119 119 119 118 113
Inflation Rate Mom 0.13
percent
0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Food Inflation 0.22
percent
2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.5
CPI Housing Utilities 130.45
Index Points
128 128 129 129 127
CPI Transportation 113.42
Index Points
114 113 113 113 112
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 3.00
percent
3 3 3 3 4
Interbank Rate 3.79
percent
4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
Money Supply M0 47084.00
PEN Million
46264 46226 46205 46184 45930
Money Supply M1 85655.00
PEN Million
85941 86030 85999 85959 85483
Money Supply M2 187432.00
PEN Million
192578 194644 195336 195467 192838
Foreign Exchange Reserves 64413.00
USD Million
64834 65177 65250 65214 63943
Loans to Private Sector 178664.25
PEN Million
176163 175452 174977 174529 169021
Deposit Interest Rate 2.65
percent
2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 1081.00
USD Million
950 900 860 900 850
Exports 4397.00
USD Million
4400 4580 5000 5250 5500
Imports 3317.00
USD Million
3450 3680 4140 4350 4650
Current Account -655.55
USD Million
200 200 -450 -600 -560
Current Account to GDP -2.80
percent
-1.6 -1.6 -3.4 -3.23 -1.2
External Debt 80200.00
USD Million
82273 82777 83061 83216 82726
Terms of Trade 104.52
Index Points
104 104 103 103 97.85
Remittances 781.84
USD Million
845 870 890 880 960
Tourist Arrivals 4575753.00
4523875 4630550 4737225 4843900 5514900
Gold Reserves 34.68
Tonnes
34.67 34.66 34.66 34.65 34.62
Terrorism Index 2.54
3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3
Foreign Direct Investment 1430.00
USD Million
1378 996 1229 1213 944
Crude Oil Production 43.00
BBL/D/1K
42.87 43.08 43.28 43.49 45.11
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 25.60
percent
24.12 24.75 25.37 26 27.1
Government Budget -2.60
percent of GDP
-1.91 -2.02 -2.13 -2.5 -1.76
Government Budget Value 2788.65
PEN Million
-3200 -2800 -1800 -2600 -1700
Government Spending 14093.33
PEN Million
16000 16500 18000 19000 19200
Government Revenues 10202.20
PEN Million
9861 9697 9722 9722 9240
Fiscal Expenditure 7074.10
PEN Million
9405 9613 9194 9331 8104
Military Expenditure 2551.30
USD Million
2650 2650 2650 2650 2600
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 64.00
Index Points
68 68 69 69 72
Industrial Production -6.53
percent
-2.15 -0.1 1.2 1.96 2.95
Capacity Utilization 32.08
percent
35.49 35.71 35.94 36.16 37.87
Changes in Inventories -14.42
PEN Million
890 635 255 -1369 -747
Leading Economic Index 1.32
percent
3.5 3.7 4 4 3.6
Internet Speed 6231.99
KBps
6512 6413 6422 6447 5837
IP Addresses 1032242.00
IP
1046955 1043948 1039222 1033762 977120
Steel Production 105.00
Thousand Tonnes
99.02 96.5 93.68 91.14 72.9
Ease of Doing Business 58.00
57 56 56 56 49
Competitiveness Index 4.22
Points
4.21 4.21 4.21 4.21 4.19
Competitiveness Rank 72.00
68 68 68 68 72
Copper Production 206328.46
Tonnes
218000 218000 220000 220000 222000
Corruption Index 35.00
Points
36 35 35 35 36
Corruption Rank 101.00
107 97 101 106 111
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 92.00
Index Points
82 82 81 82 85
Consumer Spending 83494.93
PEN Million
85500 87000 87300 87800 88000
Consumer Credit 62824.51
PEN Million
64452 65858 67069 68105 71984
Private Sector Credit 317737.00
PEN Million
322218 325218 327136 328282 323856
Bank Lending Rate 0.66
percent
0.75 0.92 1.1 1.3 3.73
Gasoline Prices 0.89
USD/Liter
0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.88
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 29.50
percent
28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 151.34
mm
180 118 77.37 142 132
Temperature 20.78
celsius
20.63 19.66 19.32 20.31 20.42