Peru - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Peru including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Peru economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.3 percent
Unemployment Rate 6.10 5.8 6 7 7.2 7 percent
Inflation Rate 1.07 1.3 2 2.1 2.2 2.4 percent
Interest Rate 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 4 percent
Balance of Trade 489.00 1180 1200 950 1280 1130 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 25.50 27 27 29 29 31 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 3.30
3.3 3.31 3.32 3.34 3.38
Stock Market 18885.30
points
19460 19283 19106 18933 18254
Government Bond 10Y 5.25
percent
5.22 5.28 5.34 5.4 5.64
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40
percent
1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.40
percent
3.9 4 4.2 4 3.8
GDP 211.39
USD Billion
215 215 220 220 225
GDP Constant Prices 136977.00
PEN Million
131403 137086 132740 142456 148271
Gross National Product 293760.41
PEN Million
299489 305511 306098 305511 330439
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 28975.19
PEN Million
30535 35116 27613 30134 37981
GDP per capita 6172.69
USD
6500 6500 6600 6600 6750
GDP per capita PPP 12236.71
USD
12389 12388 14000 14000 15000
Gdp From Agriculture 9478.00
PEN Million
6353 6300 6268 9857 6814
Gdp From Construction 7492.00
PEN Million
7740 9101 7274 7792 9844
Gdp From Manufacturing 18808.00
PEN Million
16759 17220 17095 19560 18625
Gdp From Mining 16694.00
PEN Million
17582 18136 16582 17362 19615
Gdp From Public Administration 6351.00
PEN Million
6825 7606 6490 6605 8226
Gdp From Services 13793.00
PEN Million
14032 15246 13057 14345 16490
Gdp From Transport 7469.00
PEN Million
7085 7419 7751 7768 8025
Gdp From Utilities 2451.00
PEN Million
2380 2478 2521 2549 2681
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.10
percent
5.8 6 7 7.2 7
Employed Persons 4920.40
Thousand
4800 4900 4850 4810 4950
Unemployed Persons 318.80
Thousand
315 320 335 325 345
Wages 1848.49
PEN/Month
1650 1660 1740 1787 1700
Minimum Wages 930.00
PEN/Month
850 850 900 959 900
Population 31.83
Million
32.07 32.07 32.54 32.54 33.17
Wages High Skilled 4190.00
PEN/Month
4250 4250 4350 4350 4500
Wages Low Skilled 1220.00
PEN/Month
1100 1100 1280 1280 1350
Living Wage Family 1540.00
PEN/Month
1650 1650 1740 1740 1780
Living Wage Individual 895.00
PEN/Month
895 895 950 950 1000
Employment Rate 64.70
percent
63.47 64.5 63.7 63.5 65
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.07
percent
1.3 2 2.1 2.2 2.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 129.47
Index Points
130 130 131 132 136
Core Consumer Prices 132.62
Index Points
132 132 132 133 134
Core Inflation Rate 2.38
percent
2.18 2.2 2.24 2.27 2.4
Producer Prices 107.40
Index Points
108 108 108 108 109
Export Prices 119.34
Index Points
116 115 115 115 115
Import Prices 125.11
Index Points
124 123 123 124 124
Inflation Rate Mom 0.13
percent
0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4
Food Inflation -1.05
percent
2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.5
CPI Housing Utilities 132.02
Index Points
129 132 135 134 138
CPI Transportation 117.07
Index Points
114 117 116 118 122
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.75
percent
2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 4
Interbank Rate 4.28
percent
4.28 4.28 4.28 4.28 5.53
Money Supply M0 47490.00
PEN Million
47124 47051 46964 46968 46986
Money Supply M1 85898.00
PEN Million
86721 88033 89451 90839 104216
Money Supply M2 190242.00
PEN Million
193191 196639 199911 203152 234539
Foreign Exchange Reserves 60445.00
USD Million
60588 60570 60465 60354 59575
Loans to Private Sector 181225.88
PEN Million
179500 180500 182000 183000 187000
Deposit Interest Rate 2.65
percent
2.65 2.65 2.65 2.65 3.9
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 489.00
USD Million
1180 1200 950 1280 1130
Exports 4028.00
USD Million
4500 4600 4550 4630 4800
Imports 3539.00
USD Million
3320 3400 3600 3350 3670
Current Account -750.00
USD Million
-500 -600 -700 -550 -560
Current Account to GDP -1.30
percent
-1.6 -1.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1
External Debt 75427.00
USD Million
75828 76167 76500 77244 81802
Terms of Trade 95.39
Index Points
93.49 92.82 92.91 92.76 92.73
Remittances 804.49
USD Million
890 880 781 829 960
Tourist Arrivals 4575753.00
4721800 4826500 4885825 4945150 5527500
Gold Reserves 34.70
Tonnes
34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7
Terrorism Index 2.54
2.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.4
Foreign Direct Investment 1392.90
USD Million
1610 1881 1916 1801 1813
Crude Oil Production 52.00
BBL/D/1K
51.4 51.44 51.44 51.44 51.44
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 25.50
percent
27 27 29 29 31
Government Budget -3.20
percent of GDP
-3.4 -3.4 -3.6 -3.6 -3.3
Government Budget Value -2812.28
PEN Million
408 600 3000 1200 1150
Government Spending 14101.41
PEN Million
14489 19601 13597 14665 21201
Government Revenues 9189.00
PEN Million
9000 10600 10300 9600 9850
Fiscal Expenditure 10368.70
PEN Million
8592 10000 7300 8400 8700
Military Expenditure 1945.90
USD Million
2000 2000 1920 1920 1850
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 58.50
Index Points
60 60 62 62 64
Capacity Utilization 32.08
percent
33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62
Changes in Inventories 1627.31
PEN Million
-446 -1282 1181 1377 -520
Leading Economic Index 2.31
percent
3.9 4 3.8 4.3 4.5
Internet Speed 6231.99
KBps
7341 7544 7776 7967 9627
IP Addresses 1032242.00
IP
1081171 1093496 1094160 1100554 1121103
Steel Production 105.00
Thousand Tonnes
103 102 102 102 102
Ease of Doing Business 58.00
60 60 63 63 64
Competitiveness Index 4.22
Points
4.22 4.22 4.23 4.23 4.23
Competitiveness Rank 72.00
72 72 74 74 76
Copper Production 206924.47
Tonnes
235000 235000 200000 215000 245000
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
40 40 40 40 38
Corruption Rank 96.00
99 99 99 99 98
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 88.00
Index Points
85 91 93 93 98
Consumer Spending 87105.68
PEN Million
85329 84910 85342 90590 91838
Consumer Credit 67011.65
PEN Million
68233 69855 71488 73108 88366
Private Sector Credit 332657.20
PEN Million
336273 341396 346453 351433 397259
Bank Lending Rate 0.79
percent
0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 2.04
Gasoline Prices 0.94
USD/Liter
0.96 0.9 0.85 0.81 0.64
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 29.50
percent
29.5 29.5 30 30 28
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 151.34
mm
77.37 142 180 130 132
Temperature 20.78
celsius
19.32 20.31 20.68 20.23 20.42