The economy of Paraguay contracted 2.3 percent year-on-year in September 2018, after rising 0.8 percent in the previous month and marking the first decline in economic activity since April 2017. Decreases were seen in some industrial activities, such as in the manufacture of non-metallic minerals, meat and paper; and services, of which transport, real estate activities, business services and trade. Also, the construction sector shrank, due to adverse weather conditions and electricity production in the dams was affected by the lower level of water in the Parana River caused by scarce rains. Considering the January to September period of 2018, the economy grew 3.7 percent over a year ago. Leading Economic Index in Paraguay averaged 3.80 percent from 1995 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 23 percent in April of 2013 and a record low of -10.30 percent in May of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in Paraguay is expected to be 3.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Paraguay to stand at 3.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Paraguay Economic Activity Index YoY Change is projected to trend around 3.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.