Mexico Economic Activity Beats Forecasts in October

Mexico’s economic activity index slipped 0.1% year-on-year in November 2025, reversing a 1.7% expansion in October. The secondary sector contracted 0.8%, dragged down by declines in manufacturing (-2.2%) and mining (-1.0%). The services sector posted a modest 0.2% increase, as strong gains in waste management (11.0%), sports, cultural and recreational services (7.4%), healthcare and social services (5.7%), and retail trade (3.9%) offset weakness in wholesale trade (-6.7%), transport, mail and warehousing (-2.7%), restaurants and lodging (-2.3%), and public administration (-0.1%). Meanwhile, the primary sector expanded 1.3%, supported by higher animal farming (2.6%) and agricultural output (0.9%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity fell 0.2% after a 1.0% rise in October.

Mexico’s economic activity index rose 1.7% year-on-year in October 2025, accelerating from a 0.8% increase in September and beating market expectations of a 1.0% rise. The primary sector led gains, expanding 12.4%, driven by a 19.1% surge in agriculture and a 3.1% increase in livestock activity. The services sector grew 2.4%, supported by business support, waste management and remediation services (9.3%), professional and technical services (7.6%), and culture, sports and other recreational services (6.4%). In contrast, the secondary sector contracted 0.4%, reflecting declines in manufacturing (-1.3%) and mining (-0.7%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, activity rose 1.0%, rebounding from a 0.4% fall in September.

Mexico’s economic activity index rose 0.7% year-on-year in September 2025, rebounding from a 0.5% contraction in August but slightly below expectations of a 0.8% increase. The primary sector posted the strongest gain at 8.2%, amid a 12.8% rise in agriculture and a 2.3% increase in livestock activity. The tertiary sector grew 2%, supported by business support, waste management, and remediation services (9.2%), professional and technical services (8.7%), and health care and social assistance (6.1%). In contrast, the secondary sector fell 2.4%, with declines across construction (-7.9%), mining (-3.1%), manufacturing (-0.8%), and utilities (-0.1%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, activity contracted 0.6%, reversing a 0.4% gain in August.