Mexico Manufacturing PMI Returns to Contraction

The S&P Global Mexico Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in October 2026 from 50.3 in September, slipping below the neutral 50.0 mark and signaling a marginal deterioration in the sector. Factory output fell at the fastest pace in six months, extending the downturn that began in July 2024. New orders increased for a sixth consecutive month, but growth was marginal and the weakest in this period. Employment declined at the fastest rate since May, while purchasing activity contracted for a third month. Pre-production inventories fell for a thirteenth consecutive month, while finished goods stocks edged higher. Input cost inflation accelerated to a three-month high, but selling price inflation slowed to its weakest pace since April. Business confidence improved on expectations of recovering demand and higher investment. New export orders also returned to growth.

The S&P Global Mexico Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in September 2026 from 49.8 in the prior month, signaling a fractional improvement in the health of the sector. The decline in output extended the current sequence of contractions to 27 months, albeit at a softer pace then the prior month. New business volumes continued to rise, with firms citing resilient demand for certain products. However, export sales were a further source of weakness, having declined for a third consecutive month amid reports of softer demand from Europe and the US. Employment fell again. Outstanding business rose for the first time in eight months, with backlogs accumulating at the strongest rate since the start of the year. Inventories of finished goods declined as purchasing activity declined for a second month. Positive sentiment reached its highest level since November 2025, as firms expect greater sales, investment and export orders. Still, it remained below its historical average.

The S&P Global Mexico Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in August 2026 from 51.3 in the prior month, signaling a renewed deterioration in operating conditions. A reduction in factory output weighed most, marking the steepest contraction in eight months as firms reported subdued market conditions, material shortages and shipping delays linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Demand also weakened, as new order growth slowed from recent peaks, reflecting a fall in new export orders at the quickest pace in 2026 so far. As a response, manufacturers trimmed their purchasing activity, marking the first reduction in three months. Stocks of purchases also fell, while fineshed goods inventories rose slitghly. In turn, cost pressures continued to moderate, as the input cost inflation slipped to a five-month low, although still elevated amid US tariff and Middle East uncertainty. Looking ahead, sentiment turned pessimistic, with firms citing concerns over general market uncertainty.