MXN Strengthens with Emerging Market Currencies

The Mexican peso strengthened to 17.48 per USD in July from 17.63 earlier in the month, tracking gains across other emerging market currencies as the US dollar weakened. Risk appetite improved after signs that diplomatic talks between the US and Iran are continuing despite recent tensions, easing geopolitical concerns and reducing demand for safe-haven assets. Domestically, Mexico's annual inflation rate eased to 3.37% in June 2026 from 3.94% in May, the lowest reading since December 2020. The figure came in slightly below market expectations of 3.52% and remained within the Bank of Mexico's target tolerance range of one percentage point around 3%. Meanwhile, Mexico's industrial output contracted by more than expected in May, though the impact on the peso was limited as improving global risk sentiment outweighed weaker domestic data.

The Mexican peso traded little changed at 17.5 per USD in July as broad US dollar weakness was offset by uncertainty surrounding the USMCA review. The dollar came under pressure after weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls data for June reduced expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. The return of oil prices to pre-conflict levels also eased concerns about energy-driven inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Fed could remain on hold through year-end. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding negotiations to revise the USMCA continued to weigh on the economic outlook and reduced prospects for future rate hikes. Also, domestic data strengthened the case for dovish policymakers at Banxico. Mexico's annual headline inflation fell more than expected to a ten-month low of 3.55% in the first half of June, while core inflation also eased by more than forecast, supporting expectations of lower interest rates.

The Mexican peso fell to 17.6 per USD in late June, the weakest since early April, amid contrasting outlooks for the Bank of Mexico and the Federal Reserve. The dollar surged against G10 and emerging market currencies after hawkish projections by FOMC members in their latest rate decision drove markets to position for more than one rate hike by the central bank this year. Conversely, the latest economic data weakened the argument for dovish policymakers at Banxico. The domestic headline inflation rate fell more than expected to a ten-month low of 3.55% in the first half of June, while the core rate also eased more than forecasted. Besides loosening policy domestically, a narrower rate differential between both central banks would decrease demand for peso-denominated carry trades.