Indonesia Stocks Retreat for Third Session as Week Begins

Indonesian shares fell 90 points, or 1.2%, to 7,010 in Monday morning trade, marking a third straight decline as U.S. stock futures weakened amid the prolonged Middle East conflict, raising risks of inflation and global recession. Markets now imply 12bps of Fed tightening this year, a sharp shift from 50bps of cuts priced a month ago, Reuters reported. Caution also mounted ahead of key domestic releases this week, including March inflation and February trade data. Inflation rose to 4.76% in February, a near three-year high and above Bank Indonesia’s target. Meanwhile, January imports surged ahead of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr, straining the trade balance. Still, losses were offset by new central bank measures to curb rupiah speculation, effective April 1st. Declines were broad-based, led by financials, cyclicals, and property. Among top laggards were MD Entertainment (-7.4%), Buana Lintas Lautan (-4.7%), Vale Indonesia (-4.7%), Chandra Asri Pacific (-4.5%), and Transcoal Pacific (-4.3%).

Indonesia’s IDX Composite fell 71 points, or 1%, to 7,091 in early Friday trade, extending weakness in the prior session after an overnight Wall Street slump as U.S. President Trump escalated pressure on Iran, warning of continued military action and even control of its oil. Local markets are on track for a fifth straight weekly decline, down 0.2% so far, amid vigilance ahead of March inflation and February trade data. On the corporate front, domestic airlines are seeking approval for a 15% hike in fuel surcharges and airfare caps as costs surge, signaling early cost-push inflation. Still, losses were partly cushioned by reports of an additional IDR 100 trillion liquidity injection into state-owned banks, lifting total support to IDR 300 trillion to sustain credit growth. Sectoral weakness was broad, led by infrastructure, transport, and financials. Notable laggards included Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (-4.1%), Adaro Andalan Indonesia (-2.5%), Indosat (-2.3%), and Bank Central Asia (-2.0%).

Indonesian shares fell 58 points, or 0.8%, to 7,244 in Thursday’s morning session, halting a two-day rally as traders booked profits. Sentiment was weighed by a slight drop in U.S. stock futures and uncertainty over fast-moving Middle East developments. Vigilance also grew ahead of key domestic data next week, including March inflation and February trade figures. Still, losses were tempered by optimism that Indonesia’s economy remains resilient, supported by strong seasonal consumption during Ramadan and the Eid period. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia lowered the threshold for monthly cash forex purchases to USD 50 thousand from USD 100 thousand, effective April 1st, aiming to curb speculative pressure on the rupiah. Most sectors in the IDX were lower, led by industrials, energy, and financials. Early laggards included Vale Indonesia (-3.9%), Astra International (-3.4%), Telkom Indonesia (-3.3%), and Trimegah Bangun Persada (-2.1%).