Indonesia Markets Retreat on Profit-Taking, Global Caution

Indonesian shares fell 58 points, or 0.8%, to 7,244 in Thursday’s morning session, halting a two-day rally as traders booked profits. Sentiment was weighed by a slight drop in U.S. stock futures and uncertainty over fast-moving Middle East developments. Vigilance also grew ahead of key domestic data next week, including March inflation and February trade figures. Still, losses were tempered by optimism that Indonesia’s economy remains resilient, supported by strong seasonal consumption during Ramadan and the Eid period. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia lowered the threshold for monthly cash forex purchases to USD 50 thousand from USD 100 thousand, effective April 1st, aiming to curb speculative pressure on the rupiah. Most sectors in the IDX were lower, led by industrials, energy, and financials. Early laggards included Vale Indonesia (-3.9%), Astra International (-3.4%), Telkom Indonesia (-3.3%), and Trimegah Bangun Persada (-2.1%).

Indonesia’s IDX Composite rose 55 points, or 0.8%, to 7,159 in early Wednesday trade, marking gains for a second session as markets reopened after a week-long Eid holiday. Sentiment was lifted by a surge in U.S. futures on reports that Washington had sent Iran a 15-point ceasefire plan, seeking a month-long pause in hostilities. Locally, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi reaffirmed that Indonesia will not exceed its 3% budget deficit cap. Meanwhile, authorities are considering measures to curb energy use, such as work-from-home policies and hybrid schooling. However, gains were capped by concerns that Jakarta may raise fuel prices after the festive season to offset rising global oil costs. Meanwhile, key domestic data will be due next week, including March inflation and February trade figures. Most sectors advanced, led by energy, industrials, and cyclicals. Early movers included Amman Mineral Intl. (6.7%), Astra Intl. (5.6%), Barito Renewables Energy (3.5%), and Telkom Indonesia (4.3%).

Indonesian stocks rose 70 points, or 0.9%, to 7,086 in Tuesday’s morning session, snapping a four-day losing streak as bargain hunters stepped in after local markets hit an eight-month low in the prior session. Sentiment was lifted by Wall Street’s extended strength overnight as oil prices eased back below USD 100 per barrel. Bets also grew that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. Locally, Jakarta reaffirmed its commitment to fiscal discipline, stressing that the 3% of GDP budget deficit cap would only be breached under severe crisis conditions. Most sectors gained, led by basic materials, transport, and infrastructure. Early gainers included XLSmart Telecom (6.6%), Aneka Tambang (6.0%), and Unilever Indonesia (4.0%). Traders now await Bank Indonesia’s policy decision later today, with expectations for a sixth straight rate hold. Markets will close on Wednesday for holidays and resume on March 25.