Indonesian Equities Rebound Ahead of Long Holidays

Indonesian stocks rose 70 points, or 0.9%, to 7,086 in Tuesday’s morning session, snapping a four-day losing streak as bargain hunters stepped in after local markets hit an eight-month low in the prior session. Sentiment was lifted by Wall Street’s extended strength overnight as oil prices eased back below USD 100 per barrel. Bets also grew that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. Locally, Jakarta reaffirmed its commitment to fiscal discipline, stressing that the 3% of GDP budget deficit cap would only be breached under severe crisis conditions. Most sectors gained, led by basic materials, transport, and infrastructure. Early gainers included XLSmart Telecom (6.6%), Aneka Tambang (6.0%), and Unilever Indonesia (4.0%). Traders now await Bank Indonesia’s policy decision later today, with expectations for a sixth straight rate hold. Markets will close on Wednesday for holidays and resume on March 25.

Indonesia’s IDX Composite fell 88 points, or 1.2%, to 7,049 in early Monday trade, extending losses for a fourth straight session and hitting its lowest level since mid-July 2025. Sentiment weakened as investors weighed inflationary risks from the Middle East conflict, which has driven oil prices higher and clouded the global outlook. Caution also prevailed as Bank Indonesia began its policy meeting, with a rate decision due Tuesday, amid signs of rising domestic inflation during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr. Authorities have signaled subsidized fuel prices will remain unchanged through the festive period, though persistently high oil prices could eventually force policy adjustments from Jakarta. Seasonal spending, particularly from festive allowances, helped limit the decline. All sectors traded lower, led by energy, infrastructure, and non-cyclicals. Major laggards included Barito Pacific (-4.7%), Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (-3.1%), Vale Indonesia (-2.2%), and Indo Tambangraya Megah (-1.5%).

Indonesian shares dipped 42 points, or 0.6%, to 7,323 in Friday trade, marking a third straight drop amid broad-based weakness led by industrials, transport, and infrastructure. Overnight losses on Wall Street weighed on sentiment, as fading hopes of a resolution to the U.S.–Israel war with Iran kept oil prices elevated, stoking inflation concerns. Meanwhile, Washington launched new probes into unfair trade practices tied to excess industrial capacity and forced labor, raising the risk of fresh tariffs on partners including China, the EU, India, and Japan. Still, losses were partly cushioned by strong domestic seasonal activity ahead of the Eid holiday period. Meantime, the government projected Q1 2026 growth could reach 6%, supported by strong household consumption. Notable laggards included Merdeka Copper Gold (-3.3%), Indofood (-3.0%), Bank Mandiri (-1.8%), and Sarana Menara Nusantara (-1.7%). For the week, the market is set for a third consecutive decline, down about 3.7% so far.