Indonesia Export Growth Beats Forecasts

Indonesia's exports climbed 6.05% year-on-year to USD 26.22 billion in July 2026, surpassing forecasts of a 3.4% rise, though easing from an 8.84% increase in June and marking the second consecutive monthly increase in exports. Non-oil and gas exports grew 6.84% from a year earlier to USD 25.43 billion, boosted by rises in mineral fuels (34.86%), iron and steel (20.31%), and electrical machinery and equipment, including parts (22.52%). Conversely, shipments of animal and vegetable fats and oils fell 2.41%. By destination, non-oil and gas exports increased mainly to key trading partners, including the US (8.61%), China (17.52%), Japan (7.93%), and ASEAN (16.72%). By contrast, oil and gas exports plunged 14.58%, largely due to declines in crude oil (-100.0%) and natural gas (-11.97%) exports. For the first seven months of 2026, exports climbed 4.43% to USD 159.95 billion.

Indonesia's exports surged 8.84% yoy to a six-month high of USD 25.46 billion in June 2026, recovering from a 5.73% decline in May, which was the steepest fall in six months, and surpassing forecasts of a 0.25% rise. It marked the fourth increase in exports so far this year. Non-oil and gas exports rose 9.46% from a year earlier to USD 24.39 billion, driven by increases in animal and vegetable fats and oils (10.45%), mineral fuels (49.67%), iron and steel (7.43%), and electrical machinery and equipment, including parts (4.01%). By destination, non-oil and gas exports grew mainly to key trading partners, including the US (15.40%), China (20.07%), Japan (7.13%), India (8.11%), and ASEAN (12.03%). By contrast, oil and gas exports fell 3.78%, largely due to a decline in crude oil (-100.0%) and natural gas (-9.90%) exports. For the first half of 2026, exports grew 4.13% to USD 140.81 billion.

Indonesia's exports unexpectedly plunged 5.73% year-on-year to USD 23.20 billion in May 2026, reversing sharply from a 21.98% jump in April, which marked the strongest growth since August 2022, and defying market forecasts of a 6.4% increase. It was the second decline in exports this year and the steepest fall since November. Oil and gas exports plunged 31.76%, largely due to a sharp decline in crude oil (-100.0%) and natural gas (-44.57%) exports. Non-oil and gas exports fell 4.50% to USD 22.45 billion, weighed down by declines in animal and vegetable fats and oils (-14.23%), iron and steel (-14.68%), and electrical machinery and equipment, including parts (-16.88%). By destination, non-oil and gas exports fell mainly to key trading partners, including the US (-6.24%), India (-24.21%), and ASEAN (-1.04%). For the first five months of 2026, exports grew 3.02% to USD 115.36 billion.