Indonesia Trade Surplus Exceeds Estimates

Indonesia's trade surplus narrowed to USD 3.55 billion in August 2026, exceeding expectations of USD 0.6 billion, compared with USD 5.49 billion in the same month last year. Exports rose 6.72% yoy, surpassing forecasts of a 4.2% rise and accelerating from a 6.05% increase in July. Meanwhile, imports rose 19.09% yoy, below estimates of 31.7% and easing from a 27.02% jump in July, amid high oil prices.

Indonesia unexpectedly posted a trade surplus of USD 0.13 billion in July 2026, beating expectations of a USD 0.3 billion deficit, compared with a USD 4.13 billion surplus in the same month last year. It was the first monthly trade surplus in three months, as exports rose more than expected. Exports grew 6.05% yoy, surpassing forecasts of a 3.4% rise, though easing from an 8.84% increase in June. Non-oil and gas exports grew 6.84% yoy to USD 25.43 billion, driven by stronger shipments to the US (8.61%), China (17.52%), Japan (7.93%), and ASEAN (16.72%). By contrast, oil and gas exports plunged 14.58%, largely due to declines in crude oil (-100.0%) and natural gas (-11.97%) exports. Meanwhile, imports surged 27.02% yoy, exceeding estimates of 24.1% and slowing from a 34.27% increase in June, amid higher oil prices. For the first seven months of 2026, the country posted a trade surplus of USD 3.70 billion, with exports and imports advancing 4.43% and 19.94%, respectively.

Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD 0.45 billion in June 2026, shifting from a USD 4.11 billion surplus in the same month last year and missing expectations of a USD 0.79 billion deficit. It was the second consecutive monthly trade deficit, as import growth outpaced export growth. Imports surged 34.27% yoy, exceeding estimates of 25.3% and accelerating from a 22.16% increase in May, amid higher oil prices. Meanwhile, exports grew 8.84%, rebounding from a 5.73% drop in May, which was the steepest decline in six months, and surpassing forecasts of a 0.25% rise. Non-oil and gas exports rose 9.46% to USD 24.39 billion, driven by stronger shipments to the US (15.40%), China (20.07%), Japan (7.13%), and ASEAN (12.03%). By contrast, oil and gas exports fell 3.78%, largely due to a decline in crude oil (-100.0%) and natural gas (-9.90%) exports. In H1 of 2026, the country posted a trade surplus of USD 3.57 billion, with exports and imports rising 4.13% and 18.69%, respectively.