Indonesia Trade Deficit Below Estimates

Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD 0.45 billion in June 2026, shifting from a USD 4.11 billion surplus in the same month last year and missing expectations of a USD 0.79 billion deficit. It was the second consecutive monthly trade deficit, as import growth outpaced export growth. Imports surged 34.27% yoy, exceeding estimates of 25.3% and accelerating from a 22.16% increase in May, amid higher oil prices. Meanwhile, exports grew 8.84%, rebounding from a 5.73% drop in May, which was the steepest decline in six months, and surpassing forecasts of a 0.25% rise. Non-oil and gas exports rose 9.46% to USD 24.39 billion, driven by stronger shipments to the US (15.40%), China (20.07%), Japan (7.13%), and ASEAN (12.03%). By contrast, oil and gas exports fell 3.78%, largely due to a decline in crude oil (-100.0%) and natural gas (-9.90%) exports. In H1 of 2026, the country posted a trade surplus of USD 3.57 billion, with exports and imports rising 4.13% and 18.69%, respectively.

Indonesia unexpectedly posted a trade deficit of USD 1.61 billion in May 2026, shifting from a USD 4.30 billion surplus in the same month last year and missing expectations of a USD 1.2 billion surplus. It was the first trade deficit since April 2020, as exports unexpectedly fell while imports surged. Imports soared 22.16% yoy, exceeding estimates of 19.5%, with oil and gas imports surging 70.78%, while non-oil and gas imports grew 14.89%. Meanwhile, exports unexpectedly fell 5.73%, reversing sharply from a 21.98% surge in April and defying forecasts of a 6.4% rise, marking the steepest decline since November. Oil and gas exports plunged 31.76%, largely due to a sharp decline in crude oil (-100.0%) and natural gas (-44.57%) exports, while non-oil and gas exports dropped 4.50%. By destination, non-oil and gas exports fell mainly to key trading partners, including the US (-6.24%) and India (-24.21%). For the 1st five months of 2026, the country posted a trade surplus of USD 4.03 billion.

Indonesia’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 0.09 billion in April 2026 from USD 0.20 billion in the same month last year, falling well below expectations of USD 1.5 billion and marking the smallest trade surplus since Indonesia posted a deficit in April 2020. Imports jumped 22.49% yoy, accelerating sharply from 1.51% in March and far exceeding estimates of 3.25%, with oil and gas imports soaring 85.52%, while non-oil and gas imports rose 14.11%. Meanwhile, exports surged 21.98%, rebounding sharply from a 3.1% decline in March and far exceeding forecasts of 8.8%, marking the strongest growth since August 2022. Non-oil and gas exports surged 23.36%, while oil and gas exports fell 1.20%, due to a sharp decline in crude oil (-35.54%) and natural gas (-13.28%). By destination, non-oil and gas exports grew mainly to key trading partners: the US (38.72%), China (29.56%), Japan (10.03%), and ASEAN (13.26%). For the first four months of 2026, the country posted a USD 5.64 billion trade surplus.