Indonesia Trade Deficit Below Estimates

Indonesia unexpectedly posted a trade surplus of USD 0.13 billion in July 2026, beating expectations of a USD 0.3 billion deficit, compared with a USD 4.13 billion surplus in the same month last year. It was the first monthly trade surplus in three months, as exports rose more than expected. Exports grew 6.05% yoy, after an 8.84% increase in June, surpassing forecasts of a 3.4% rise. Non-oil and gas exports grew 6.84% yoy to USD 25.43 billion, driven by stronger shipments to the US (8.61%), China (17.52%), Japan (7.93%), and ASEAN (16.72%). By contrast, oil and gas exports plunged 14.58%, largely due to declines in crude oil (-100.0%) and natural gas (-11.97%) exports. Meanwhile, imports surged 27.02% yoy, exceeding estimates of 24.1% and slowing from a 34.27% increase in June, amid higher oil prices. For the first seven months of 2026, the country posted a trade surplus of USD 3.70 billion, with exports and imports advancing 4.43% and 19.94%, respectively.

Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD 0.45 billion in June 2026, shifting from a USD 4.11 billion surplus in the same month last year and missing expectations of a USD 0.79 billion deficit. It was the second consecutive monthly trade deficit, as import growth outpaced export growth. Imports surged 34.27% yoy, exceeding estimates of 25.3% and accelerating from a 22.16% increase in May, amid higher oil prices. Meanwhile, exports grew 8.84%, rebounding from a 5.73% drop in May, which was the steepest decline in six months, and surpassing forecasts of a 0.25% rise. Non-oil and gas exports rose 9.46% to USD 24.39 billion, driven by stronger shipments to the US (15.40%), China (20.07%), Japan (7.13%), and ASEAN (12.03%). By contrast, oil and gas exports fell 3.78%, largely due to a decline in crude oil (-100.0%) and natural gas (-9.90%) exports. In H1 of 2026, the country posted a trade surplus of USD 3.57 billion, with exports and imports rising 4.13% and 18.69%, respectively.

Indonesia unexpectedly posted a trade deficit of USD 1.61 billion in May 2026, shifting from a USD 4.30 billion surplus in the same month last year and missing expectations of a USD 1.2 billion surplus. It was the first trade deficit since April 2020, as exports unexpectedly fell while imports surged. Imports soared 22.16% yoy, exceeding estimates of 19.5%, with oil and gas imports surging 70.78%, while non-oil and gas imports grew 14.89%. Meanwhile, exports unexpectedly fell 5.73%, reversing sharply from a 21.98% surge in April and defying forecasts of a 6.4% rise, marking the steepest decline since November. Oil and gas exports plunged 31.76%, largely due to a sharp decline in crude oil (-100.0%) and natural gas (-44.57%) exports, while non-oil and gas exports dropped 4.50%. By destination, non-oil and gas exports fell mainly to key trading partners, including the US (-6.24%) and India (-24.21%). For the 1st five months of 2026, the country posted a trade surplus of USD 4.03 billion.