Indonesia Trade Surplus Smallest in 6 Months

Indonesia’s trade surplus widened to USD 2.52 billion in December 2025, up from USD 2.24 billion in the same month a year earlier and above market estimates of USD 2.45 billion. Exports unexpectedly grew 11.64% yoy to an over three-year high of USD 26.35 billion in December 2025, rebounding sharply from a 6.6% decline in November and easily beating market forecasts of a 2.4% fall, marking the fastest pace since February 2025. Meanwhile, imports unexpectedly rose 10.81%, accelerating sharply from 0.46% in November and well above forecasts of a 0.7% decline. This marked the fastest increase in imports since last April, driven by a 1.71% rise in oil and gas imports, reflecting higher oil products (4.05%), while non–oil and gas imports rose 12.46% to USD 20.48 billion, rebounding from a 1.15% decline in November. For the entire year of 2025, Indonesia registered a trade surplus of USD 41.05 billion, with exports and imports advancing 6.15% and 2.83% year-on-year, respectively.

Indonesia’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 2.66 billion in November 2025, down from USD 4.34 billion in the same month a year earlier, below market estimates of USD 3.1 billion, as exports fell while imports rose. Exports fell 6.6% yoy to a seven-month low of USD 22.52 billion, marking the second consecutive monthly decline and the steepest drop since February 2024. Oil and gas exports slumped 32.88%, while non–oil and gas exports fell 5.09% to USD 21.64 billion after a 0.51% decline in October, driven by weaker demand from China (-7.35%) and Japan (-12.34%). Meanwhile, shipments to the US accelerated to 9.45% from 7.41% in October, despite the imposition of new US tariffs. Meanwhile, imports grew 0.46% from a year earlier, rebounding from a 1.15% decline in October, below forecasts of a 3.2% rise. Over the first eleven months of 2025, Indonesia registered a trade surplus of USD 38.54 billion, with exports and imports advancing 5.61% and 2.03% year-on-year, respectively.

Indonesia’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 2.4 billion in October 2025, slightly down from USD 2.48 billion in the same month a year earlier. It marked the smallest trade surplus since April, as exports fell more than imports. Exports dropped 2.31% year-on-year, reversing sharply from an 11.41% rise in September and marking the first decline since March 2024. Oil and gas exports plunged 33.60%, while non–oil and gas exports fell 0.51% to USD 23.34 billion after surging 12.79% in September, driven by weaker demand from Japan (-5.36%) and India (-35.70%). Shipments to the US also moderated, with growth easing to 7.41% amid the imposition of new US tariffs, while exports to China slowed to 1.01%, down sharply from a 12.79% jump in September. Meanwhile, imports fell 1.15%, following 7.17% growth in September. Over the first ten months of 2025, Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of USD 35.88 billion, with exports and imports rising 6.96% and 2.19% year-on-year, respectively.