Indonesia Trade Surplus Below Estimates

Indonesia’s trade surplus declined sharply to USD 1.28 billion in February 2026, from USD 3.09 billion in the same month last year, falling below market expectations of USD 1.55 billion. Imports rose 10.85% yoy to USD 20.89 billion, slowing from 18.21% in January. Meanwhile, exports increased 1.01% yoy, easing from a 3.39% rise in January and coming in below expectations of 3.2%, marking the softest growth in exports since last November, when outbound shipments declined. Non-oil and gas exports grew 1.30% to USD 21.09 billion, supported by increases in animal and vegetable fats and oils (16.19%), iron and steel (3.31%), and electrical machinery and equipment, including parts (11.05%). Meanwhile, oil and gas exports dropped 4.25% to USD 1.08 billion, dragged down by sharp falls in crude oil (-34.24%) and declines in natural gas exports (-6.81%). In the first two months of the year, the country posted a USD 6.59 billion trade surplus, with exports rising 2.19% while imports fell 14.44%.

Indonesia’s trade surplus shrank dramatically to USD 0.95 billion in January 2026, from USD 3.49 billion in the same month last year, well below market expectations of USD 2.76 billion. It marked the smallest trade surplus since April 2025, despite Indonesia and the US recently signing a reciprocal trade deal, with Washington agreeing to maintain a 19% tariff on Indonesian exports, down from the 32% initially proposed last year. Imports jumped 18.21% year-on-year to USD 21.2 billion, driven by non-oil and gas products, which surged 16.71%, and oil and gas products, which climbed 27.52%. Meanwhile, exports grew more modestly, rising just 3.39% to USD 22.16 billion. Non-oil and gas exports increased 4.38%, supported by strong gains in animal and vegetable fats and oils, as well as electrical machinery and equipment. However, these gains were partially offset by a sharp 15.62% drop in oil and gas exports, dragged down by lower crude oil and natural gas shipments.

Indonesia and the U.S. have signed a reciprocal trade deal, with Washington agreeing to maintain a 19% tariff on Indonesian exports, down from the 32% initially proposed last year. The pact, finalized by Senior Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer after months of talks, grants tariff-free access for coffee, chocolate, natural rubber, and spices, with potential exemptions for nearly 1,700 other items, including palm oil. Textile products will be subject to a 0% levy under a forthcoming Tariff-Rate Quota mechanism. Airlangga noted the U.S. dropped demands for non-economic provisions tied to nuclear development and the South China Sea, while the agreement excludes Chinese transshipments. In return, Indonesia will ease most tariff and non-tariff barriers on U.S. goods, adopt American standards for vehicles and medical products, and facilitate U.S. investment in critical minerals and energy.